Mafia [Mafia] Mr. E's Murder Mystery at Misty Mountain Manor ~ GAME OVER (EVERYONE'S A WINNER!)

I am saying that we should vote for people even if we don't have really good reasons because that in itself gives us information.

If you understand that votes have value period, then you are being dumb. You already know that there is something you can do—you can vote and see how people react. If it's good enough for others to do, why not you?

I said we should push a soft lynch because if we do, we learn even more. Mafia won't stay or contribute to a really dangerous wagon for their own, but town will. It adds a process of elimination. That way, we can learn if our votes are right.[DOUBLEPOST=1415598794][/DOUBLEPOST]

Logic problem. Mafia are significantly less likely to be on a lynch for their own. It is possible that one of the voters is a mafia bussing on their own, but that isn't necessary in most cases, and the logical move for mafia is to push another lynch instead. Especially early in the game when mafia often don't need to vote at all to get a lynch.

You've got it right other than that, though. Votes are nearly always valuable.[DOUBLEPOST=1415599200][/DOUBLEPOST]I'm going to take a gamble and say that if Beau were Mafia, Mafia would have done more to defend him by now. They would have either defended him directly by challenging the wagon or raised Spike up to a soft lynch to avoid lynching him. Because neither has happened,

We can safely conclude that Beau is not Mafia.

Going by my previous plan, I believe we should vote for the person who has contributed the least after them, unless someone has a real case. Going by posts as well as substance, The Fuk? is the least active/cooperative, with only three posts and one vote without good reasons.

##Unvote: Beau
##Vote: The Fuk?

 

@Makaze I don't think it's a good idea to completely write anybody off yet. Beau could still be mafia for all we know. Other mafia members might have wanted to avoid raising suspicion by defending him. With that said, I do think we've gotten all we can from Beau and agree we should press others.

##Vote: The Fuk?[DOUBLEPOST=1415600311][/DOUBLEPOST]Just want to add that if Beau is mafia it's possible that no fellow mafia were online/around to defend him.

 

I considered that, and so I waited... Quite a while. About six hours. If people are going to be this inactive, then I won't be able to turn the vote around if I post tomorrow. It's a measure of practicality.

We can safely conclude that Beau is not mafia, but that doesn't mean he's in the clear. It just makes it less likely and thus worth thinking about alternatives.

 

^ This

It is day one as everyone has explicitly pointed out. You are the only one was can safely conclude to not be mafia. While there is a good chance that it is unlikely that Andy is mafia, we cannot safely conclude that fact until his role is revealed. Anything further is just an assumption.

It is helpful knowing that Makaze is not mafia, but I don't want that to be an excuse for everyone to just follow his lead. Having been a mafia member last game, I can safely say that that did no one any good. I agree with getting rid of people that do not contribute for the first day or two to develop some sort of serious game base and really start to see how everyone reacts. However, we have a significantly smaller cast this time around which means our days are drastically numbered. When it comes to relying on Makaze, he is always saying, "don't sheep, come up with your own plans, what are you thinking about?" but then typically disregards any information that anyone else provides or discredits other game plans because they are not his.

I'm not trying to offend Mak because doing so always ends badly, but I'm just saying that there has to be a better way to go about this. I haven't really been saying anything myself, because I have been using the time to try and come up with something. Also, you really can't get on someone's case for not asking questions because honestly the only question you can ask is "are you mafia?" and that isn't going to get an honest answer from anyone that is mafia.

You can ask everyone a thousand times who they find suspicious, but that will only do so much, especially on the first day. Everyone is flip-flopping between votes which is okay for the time being, but we also don't want that to cause a no lynch. // sighs // When I come up with a plan better than just voting off inactive people or railing the inactives that are attempting to defend themselves, I'll let you know. In the mean time, I just wanted wanted to get this out there because it was bothering me.

#done ranting

[[ also, Mak, seriously stop editing your posts. ]]

 

Do you suspect Beau, hyuge?

It's important to realize that if people follow my lead, it's of their own free will, because they are not confident enough to make decisions on their own.

If you disagree with my logic in assuming that Beau is town, please address my logic. Yes, I may be wrong. Do you think I am?

I have not edited a post since the last time it was mentioned. Double posts add edit timestamps. Try it yourself.

 

That post of Nova's when Mak said the fact that he was town is confirmed really, really set me on edge. I know it says that his role is unquestionably town, but still... I don't know whether Nova was messing with Mak or not so I'm a little on edge about that. I feel like it wouldn't have been said if it didn't bear some significance. I mean, we have to go off what was stated in the OP, but that comment still rubbed me the wrong way so... I'm a little uneasy. Can someone actually confirm whether that was Nova being serious about Mak's 'unquestionable town' status being uncertain? That contradiction really confused me.

Or perhaps they agree with your logic and are willing to follow because it makes sense to them. I don't think that anyone here lacks the confidence to make their own decisions. You put a compelling case out and as such, people will follow. Also, here's another thought to bear in mind, also relating to your role.

Would following you not be a good idea for the Mafia? You are 'unquestionably town' according to the OP so I can't help but wonder whether this is perhaps the case. It would be quite easy to hide behind the person that is definitely town because then they'd be adhering to the town's goals. It's probably already been considered and it's probably also of limited use, but just food for thought for everyone that we can keep in mind for the days to come.

 

Everyone: Please remember, my conclusion was meant as a gamble. I am aware of the risks involved. I think it matters despite that because I think my arguments are compelling enough to change the flow of votes. If you have a problem with that, please answer the questions above/below.

Do you suspect Beau? Do you think my reasoning is wrong?

If my reasons don't convince you, then reconsider your original reasons for voting him. Our original reason for choosing Beau was because he was inactive. He is no longer inactive. He has posted more than several other members by now and actually made some progress in thought process. And for substance, his reasons for not contributing on Day 1 without pressure make sense and explain his behavior in a town capacity.

Likelihood of mafia letting him stay at a soft lynch without countering in some way: Not very likely.
Likelihood of his not contributing being a Mafia tell: Not very likely, because he explained it and it makes sense from a certain town perspective.
Still inactive enough to be policy lynched: No.
More information gained if we let it sit and lynch him: No.

My post was meant as a gambit that would make one thing clear: If you want to lynch Beau, you are taking a gamble against the odds. A gamble that will not teach you more than you already know. Knowing you are going against the odds and will learn nothing is all you need to know to jump off the train.

I'm sorry for my wording. The point isn't so much that Beau is confirmed town as that it is rational to assume he is town until further notice. Please consider it.

In defense of broad strokes, if you disagree with my reasoning, you should post about it. Broad strokes tend to draw more attention than individual points, especially waffling points. Waffling means saying one thing, such as 'I think Makaze is mafia', and adding things like, 'but I'm not sure'. People who second-guess themselves tend to inspire a 'moderate' feeling, and it's hard to disagree with a moderate feeling, so those types of posts don't get many responses compared to convicted one. Half-assed statements don't get anywhere, and that's just how it is.

It seems silly to be so serious during RVS (Random Voting Stage), but we won't ever get out of RVS if we don't do silly things and then see what happens when we take them seriously.[DOUBLEPOST=1415605535][/DOUBLEPOST]

On the first point, I am the town Darling, which is a role that was specified in the OP of the thread, and it says that I am someone who is mod-confirmed to be town from the start of the game. When he said "No it isn't" he meant that my role does not get rid of the cheating associated with editing posts, and after consulting him about it, I have to agree that editing is a bad practice for any role.

On the second point, that is a good line of thinking and I hope you can do something with it.

 

It's a three horse race now

• Beau - 3 (Spike, tale, Marushi)
• Mish - 1 (The Fuk?)
• The Fuk? - 3 (cstar, Makaze, Trigger)
• Spike - 3 (Hyuge, al215, Mish)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 4 to soft-lynch. Day ends Tuesday, November 11th, 7:00 ᴘ.ᴍ. (EST)

 

We've 3 people who are a single vote away from being soft-lynched. How firm is everyone on their current choice of candidates?

 

I'm sticking with The Fuk? until I hear more from him. We keep asking him for his thoughts on who he thinks is mafia, or what his thoughts are for the strategies we are trying to go with so far. He popped in and asked "what do you want to know" when we have clearly asked him the same questions over and over again.

I believe this is what he did last game, and I think I jumped the gun on him because of it [my memory of this may be wrong, I'm at school so I can't look up to see if it was him or someone else.], but I'm not going to back away from my vote until I at least hear more from him.

 

I'm still debating who I want to lynch today. To be honest I was set on voting on Beau or Trigger. I can see why you are all voting for Fuk? though, since something I've noticed with Mafia is that the Mafia would stay pretty quiet so they didn't raise any suspicion.

I'm going to keep my vote on Beau for now, but after I re-read the thread again after school I'll see if I can find anything else that really stands out to me.

##Vote: Beau

 

I have yet to see someone in this thread provide substantial reasoning for a vote. I'm still waiting for someone to give up something good, so until that happens, my first vote will be based on metagame, which is just as an good a reason as any other. Trigger would be my second choice.

 

None of us really have substantial reasoning other than inactivity and hunches based on early game behaviour that really doesn't tell too much, at least to me. Some experienced players might get reads off small stuff that is basically meaningless to most people (Or they think they read something), but that's it. I can't justify my case on anything other than "He's not very active so lynch".

 

Alright so after re-viewing the whole game day, I have come to two conclusions. I'm pretty sure Beau and Al are both Mafia. Despite what Makaze said about the Mafia wanting to raise Spike up to a soft-lynch, he is pretty close to it now. I think it's possible that either the Mafia member hasn't voted yet and if they had, now switching to Spike would be very suspicious, especially if later Beau does turn out to be Mafia.

Also re-reading the posts, Al gets really defensive when questioned and this is rising my eyebrow. Especially when if he is playing town he shouldn't feel like he's in any danger. (To be fair I was like that my first game as well, but I was actually on the chopping board at one point haha) Also the fact that he seemed to Unvote The Fuk? really quickly and with little explanation compared to when he's unvoted/voted for other people, and the fact that he changed to Spike kind of got me curious, since others suspected of being Mafia (Such as Hyuge) have also voted for Spike.

I'm not going to change my vote from Beau, because I do believe he is Mafia as well, but I just want this to be kept in mind (Especially if because of this something happens to me tonight lol)
[DOUBLEPOST=1415638956][/DOUBLEPOST]

Also just to correct myself, I meant if Al is town, he shouldn't feel like he's in any danger because he isn't being lynched nor is in danger of being lynched from what I can tell, so there really isn't any reason to be so defensive.

 

I can't leave the points made here unanswered/unchallenged, as such:

On me getting defensive:
This is a natural reaction for me. I don't like being accused because that to me, is the same as being attacked. I will therefore raise my defenses and prepare to fight back. This is the way I am and furthermore- I don't want to get killed in the first two days. As I'm sure most people would not. I disagree with your sentiment that because I dared to ask Mish why I he thought I was suspicious exactly that I am suspect. This entire day has been asking people what people think and why. I wanted an explanation for his reasons and I'm sure had I not asked, someone else would have. You can't just make an accusation pointlessly in this game. That has been treated with nothing but disdain so far and I don't plan to treat essentially baseless accusations against myself any differently for fear of being classed as suspicious in an honest attempt to figure out why they have that opinion of me.

On unvoting The Fuk?/Voting Spike:
I accepted the point of this: Nobody has a good reason yet. There is very little to go off. I also applied the basic principle that Day 1 voting is to try and pressure the player into posting and showing a reaction up until this current point where we are trying to achieve a consensus on who to lynch. I got my reaction, further pressure seemed pointless because with his answer of this:

What else am I going to get by pressing him further? At least with Mish I could try and identify what exactly gave him his ideas on myself and the other two. There is nothing more to be gained by holding my vote on him when at the time, I could have pressured Spike. I hadn't even realised that Hyuge was voting for him. That's a totally irrelevant point.

Policy lynches on inactives was suggested. I followed this policy by voting Spike.

I should also add the case against Hyuge was pretty poor. Mish's case against me wasn't much to speak of either. He said I was defensive, and that he didn't know me. In fact, I would suggest that none of you have seen me play this and as I said, I'm naturally defensive. I dislike being confronted with a threat and this situation classifies in my mind as one.

There is my logic presented to you.

 

What The Fuk??

• Beau - 3 (Spike, Calxiyn, Marushi)
• Mish - 1 (The Fuk?)
• The Fuk? - 4 (cstar, Makaze, Trigger, tale)
• Spike - 3 (Hyuge, al215, Mish)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 4 to soft-lynch. Day ends Tuesday, November 11th, 7:00 ᴘ.ᴍ. (EST)

 

My casting votes on people with a plan rather than real suspicion, we are creating the substantial information you're talking about. If you do not put any effort into creating substantial information, you are a dead weight to town.

You ignored me when I told you to give me your opinion of my plan. By doing so, you have opted not to consolidate with your fellow teammates.

Consolidating on a lynch is when you choose to vote for another lynch target after realizing that your own target is not going to be lynched that day. If you are alone in your case on someone, there are two logical options: Try to convince others to join you, or consolidate on someone else's case. These are the only options you have because you have already gotten a reaction from your target and the audience, and there is simply nothing else you can do that day. You have refused to do either of these things.

Why consolidate instead of sticking to your guns? That's a fair question. Because voting for someone who you are sure is mafia is not as useful as getting information about everyone at once with a lynch vote. You can hold on to your suspicions. But what will you do if you get a lynch on Mish and you are wrong? You are acting like you know 100% certain that she is mafia right now.

What you are doing with Mish is called 'tunneling'. Tunnel vision is what I did to you last game. Remember how that worked out?

There was a difference between our methods on Day 2. Where you stubbornly insist on only voting for people you suspect, I conceded to reason in on the second say and voted for Ben to consolidate with my teammates instead of waging a one man war based on my personal feelings. And guess what? Ben happened to be guilty!

Your attitude of 'only voting for your personal strongest read and ignoring everyone else' is counter-productive. It is counter-productive because it helps no one. You have a single vote sitting on Mish and no one else is with you. Mish is not providing you with info in a defense. Others are not joining you now because you are not convincing them. When the day ends, you will not see Mish die and find out her role. You will not have convinced anyone of your position. Any information you gain will have been information the other people in the game found, not you.

You are shooting your own foot in your one-man-team play.

You have intentionally added buffer posts instead of answering people directly. You have flat out ignored specific questions like mine about my plan. That is either a mafia tell, or an uncooperative tell. If the former, we are right to lynch you. If the latter, you will drag us down and mafia will kill someone else at night knowing that you present a small threat, like they did with me last game.

Please respond seriously to this entire post and the plan. Give us a reason to think you are playing on town's side.[DOUBLEPOST=1415647238][/DOUBLEPOST]By casting* Sorry.[DOUBLEPOST=1415648205][/DOUBLEPOST]and on the second day*

 

Alright guys, I once again have a lot I need to do today, so I'll try to make this as quick as I can.

##Unvote: Beau

Makaze raises some excellent points about the lack of defense Beau received, and he's right that this, paired with the fact that Beau mostly has posted things that fit a certain type of townie thinking, makes it safe to conclude that Beau is likely to be town. I put "likely" in italics so nobody thinks I'm saying he most definitely is, and really, that's not what Makaze was saying either. But he's already addressed that, so I don't need to go into it.

As for Calxiyn and Al, their exchange doesn't seem quite right to me. First, Cal's vote for Beau comes at a rather awkward time. Considering the main two reasons we all voted for Beau were Beau's inactivity and the necessity of a soft lynch, to vote for him anyway despite his increase in activity and decrease in votes makes little sense. Though I agree he's said some rather suspicious things, they really can be explained away.

As for al's defensiveness, that in itself isn't conclusive. Some people get really defensive, even when they're not guilty. We learned that last game. But it's still pretty suspicious. Especially with exactly how defensive he got when Calxiyn called him out on it.

If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say that one of these two is probably Mafia. There's two scenarios here that I could see playing out.

1. @Calxiyn is Mafia and is trying to set both Beau and Al up as Mafia instead. This theory can be supported by her insistence to vote for Beau after Beau was out of danger, and by her somewhat out-of-the-blue accusation against Al.

2. @al215 is Mafia and got overly defensive when Calxiyn got too close. If this is right, then the plot thickens in regards to the Fuk?. After all, if al voted for the Fuk? because he was "suspicious," but then switched targets to consolidate a lynch, why hasn't he switched back now that the Fuk? is the prime choice? Or at the very least, why hasn't he unvoted Spike if the only reason he voted was to consolidate the lynch?

On that note, the Fuk? is the prime choice for a lynch now. Since he's currently at a soft-lynch, I'm not going to vote for him and speed things along. I do wish he would come and speak, but we can't make him. And we learned last game that we can't allow inactive players to stay inactive or the game is left to the Mafia.[DOUBLEPOST=1415648454][/DOUBLEPOST]Agh, can't edit. XD

##Unvote: Beau

Failed to bold. XD[DOUBLEPOST=1415648537][/DOUBLEPOST]Agh and again there's a lack of coding! I meant to italicize "likely," and even alluded to it. XD[DOUBLEPOST=1415650469][/DOUBLEPOST]Forgot another point about al. His thing about still being suspicious of Makaze also really didn't sit right with me. But yeah. XD

Another thing that I noticed was this:

(I made it green for clarification)

Those two don't match up. One says conclude, one says assume. I don't know where the fault lies; if hyuge changed the quote for some inexplicable reason, or if Makaze did indeed edit his post. I also don't really know if the answer has any bearing on the situation, or if it even matters. But I do think it's worth mentioning.