Mafia [Mafia] Miami Haze ~ GAME OVER (MAFIA WINS)

Vote: Princess

As discussed, purely a random thing at this point.

 

I feel like there is a lot of misdirection so early in the game. Everyone is just throwing out random votes without any sort of backing, which is understandable considering we have very little ground to stand on, but this sort of thing will just result in a mislynch if no one can agree on a concrete person to vote for. Bandwagoning is bad, yes, but it is alao the only way to get someone lynched.

 

That's basically why I avoided voting anyone had votes against them already, no one really has a reason to be voted for yet, so I don't want to end up being the reason an innocent is killed just because it's the 'in' thing to do, no reasoning behind my vote other than it's a vote, if something happens before the end of the day to chnge my mind i'll change my vote.

 

I will probably wait until the end to make a vote. Looking at it statistically, there are 8 members with roles. Three of them help the town, four of them hurt, and one could wreak havoc on both parties. Meaning there is a 40% chance of lynching one of those people to day. Two out of every five members has a role and i just really wouldn't want to accidentally kil anyone off that might be helpful towards the town. Last time it was easier with just the cop and the doctor, both of them making it nearly to the end of the game. I don't think we will be quite that lucky this time, so I would like to take it slow. I of course do not me going without a lynch, but just not rushing into anything on the first day.

Sorry i know i'm starting to ramble but i don't think i'll be able to post anything tonight so i want to get everything out of my head while i still can. I dont find anyone inherently suspicious at the given moment. I just think everyone is excited and a bit nervous. Those don't feel like suspicious acts at the given moment in time. Not to mention, not everyon . Has even posted yet for day one, so i would like to see some more activity before recklessly pointing fingers.

This is the cartel after all, we dont want to mess with them unless we know we are ready.

 

Just about to go to lunch and wanted to read every post before I posted myself, so I'll make this quick and maybe expound a bit later.

So far, I don't necessarily find anyone suspicious enough to vote, but again, this is just the first day and we have until Thursday before we HAVE to have a decision. A lot of people think Makaze is acting suspiciously, and I do intend to keep an eye on him, but I wouldn't want to lynch him yet because although his logic is a bit confusing to follow (though maybe that's just me being blonde and in a hurry) he seems to be genuinely into helping the town, even if he might come across as too trigger-happy.

Kay, gtg. Post more later.

 

If we get to the end of the day and there is a no-lynch, there is a 100% chance of not killing mafia. If we lynch someone on even the basest of suspicions, there is at least a 15% chance of killing mafia (20% if there are 4 mafia). Mafia have a 100% chance of killing town tonight. On the other hand, even if we mislynch today, the events involved in the lynch will give us info. Some of the people involved will be mafia.

I don't think town can afford to wait for info to present itself. They have to fish for it.

 

Alright, back from lunch! lol, my fam was literally waiting at the door asking if I was coming or not. XD

So, continuing with what I was saying earlier about Makaze. I definitely think I'll be keeping an eye on him, but the thing is, it's true that if he is Townie, he's valuable, if for nothing else, for the willingness to push us into taking action. However, I think that if he continues to do things the way he is doing, he is setting himself up to be lynched. To clarify: this isn't necessarily a bad thing as the object of the game is to work towards a victory for the group and not for ourselves, and even a bad thing like a mislynch can still afford good information. But I do think he'll be a likely candidate for a hard lynch at some point in the game. See, if he's Townie, I don't think the Mafia would want to kill him off straight away. If you want to control the people, you start by trying to control the leader. You don't take the front goose out first, you lure it in while picking off the stragglers. (though I'm not saying Makaze's a goose XD) He's already trying to lead us into action; if the Mafia believe they can influence his suspicions, they're more likely to win over those that do just want to bandwagon what he says. And I think it's already been well established that there are those who are willing to listen to Makaze simply because, tbh, he's Makaze. So while I believe that he's relatively safe from Mafia for the first few rounds at least, I think he's putting himself in a dangerous position with the Townies. The Mafia all know who they are, there's little to no uncertainty regarding their own positions, they only have to fear the special roles. But all the Townies are suspicious of everyone else in the game, and for someone to stand above the rest and put himself out there is really risky. Either people will listen or he'll get shot. Not to mention, the Mafia don't only lynch at night; if they can create a bandwagon big enough, with really convincing arguments, they can move the Townies to do the dirty work for them. Which, really, is another reason I think Makaze ought to be careful even in his call to action. Even if his motives are pure, the simple fact that he IS leading sets him up as a bigger target, because the Townies will be suspicious of those possibly-pure motives. I think his admittedly valuable position will get him through the first couple days, but as roles become more established and defined, and as patterns begin to develop, I think he will become more and more suspicious to everyone else, and I think this will ultimately end with his being lynched. Whether he is then revealed to be Townie or Mafia, I really have no idea at this time.

As for Beau, I agree that this is exactly as he played the last time. And although we can't rule him out simply because he WAS Mafia last time and, as Makaze said, "dice have no memory," I don't think he's acting quite suspicious enough to lynch yet. Not to say he's innocent, but just not guilty just yet. I will admit, I have a hard time reading Beau's posts because it's just... I don't even know, they just hurt my head. Sorry, Beau. XD So yeah, we do need to start pointing fingers in order to gauge reactions, but we don't need to be in quite as much of a hurry. We have until the deadline, after all.

 

All of this is solid reasoning, but it doesn't get us closer to finding mafia.

If someone were mafia, how would you find out that they were?

@What?: I see you viewing the thread. Do you have any input yet?

 

Hmm... Well, first, I would read every post like, six times each (in fact, just went through it all again now) and look for even little things that might tell me a person's motive. lol, my biggest problem is I have a terrible memory, so even if I find something suspicious, I usually forget it later until I go read it again. XD But if something does stick out to me as odd, I'll examine it carefully because I've learned to trust my instincts a bit; they're not infallible but they're usually pretty good, and at this stage of the game instinct is the majority of what we have. If something I notice proves to be worthy of suspicion, I'll try and throw it out there and see if I get a reaction. The reaction then grants me either some confirmation of what I think, or it dissuades me from thinking it.

Also, for me it helps to try and figure out who isn't Mafia as well as trying to find out who is. I'm not gonna start my investigations from that point of view; I'll definitely be looking for the mafiosa first, but if I'm trying to get a read on someone and I notice something that makes me think they might be innocent, I'll continue investigating them until I'm satisfied that they are so.

So now, I feel like I had noticed something suspicious earlier, but I've forgotten what it was. And since I have nothing else I need to do right now, I shall go back to the first post of the day and read through everything again. XD

 

I feel like Beau is acting a little strange, they haven't been too adamant on getting the heat off of them. Maybe they're not around or maybe they just don't feel like they're too much of a target.

 

i don't really think i'm a target tbh i haven't really done anything bad

then again i haven't really helped either but then again most people in this game haven't so

 

I made a script that grabs all posts by a user in the thread just for these purposes.

Othewise, open up a note pad and take notes of suspicious activity. Linking to posts is useful.

I think it would be a little more suspicious if they got super defensive, but doing nothing isn't good either.

If all they do is sheep other cases later, they'll stay at the top of my list.

 

why are you two saying they you can say he lol

 

We're referencing your multiple personalities.

 

lolwhat

 

Oh no, he doesn't know.

 

Damnit Beau, I'm old, your tiny ass font is so hard to read.

 

i remember you complaining on various occasions in the past haha

but for the sake of this thread [ bc i'm p sure some people complained last game ] i'll make it bigger

yayyyyyy

 

Ahh, that looks really helpful but man, I don't know anything at ALL about computers and scripts and stuff. Just reading how to install it went completely over my head. XD Yeah, I definitely think I'll have to do the notebook thing instead. XD Oh, I'm such a computer newb sometimes.

Anyway, after having read through it all again, I noticed that a lot of people are talking a lot without really saying anything at all. Since nobody wants to be accused of lurking, this could be nothing, and we also have to take into account that this is just the first day and ice-breaking jokes will abound, but even after some people started talking suspicion and accusations, these jokes kept coming though they're no longer necessary. I can't say that it's inherently suspicious, especially as some of these jokesters weren't in the last game so I have no basis from which to say whether or not they're acting outside of their "norm." However, since voting is a way to find out info (and since last game, I know I didn't use the power of voting to its full potential) let's see if I can shake things up a bit...

Vote: What?

@What? So far you've only posted jokes. What do you think of everything that's going on?

 

Responding to @Makaze 's inquiries:

From my understanding of the situation, the strategy of uncovering scum in itself on the first day alone would rely more heavily on observation of one's passive actions rather than active ones, as prior to the first night kill, about eighty percent of us are left in a situation unaware where we can only build leads by ourselves through the questioning a few of us are doing (while the other twenty percent are intentionally feigning it). When the first lynching and the first night kill is made, the game of the tone is set and connections of reasoning can be established for the motivations behind the scum, which combined with observations on the first day offer a framework for investigation.

For this reason, I believe that it is absolutely necessary we continue to engage in active inquiry in regards to the passive behaviour of individuals, if not simply for their reaction towards these actions, but while this may not be proof in itself and would simply result in a scapegoat wagon if gone too far, it allows us to understand the overall machinations of each and every individual when placed in a situation like this.

On simpler terms, active observation is the name of the game on the first day. This is what I plan to engage in myself; I will attempt to begin my personal votes of inquiry when I finish achieving a good idea of all of our major players on this first day. I recommend others engage in active observation as well, because the flow of information will only serve to help us more in the end. The problem herein lies through a silly kind of quantum wave-state conundrum, where the scum's actions are influenced by the very fact that it is the first day and we are all both on guard and attempting to grasp onto leads like straws! This is where their advantage lies.

If you do need a clarification of my jokes, they simultaneously acted as a method of ice breaking while seeing if anything of worth could be gleaned from the responses. Because that principle will become a major cornerstone of the game as a whole, from what I understand.