Mafia [Mafia] Miami Haze ~ GAME OVER (MAFIA WINS)

I admit that I didn't mention hostility, and I have also to admit that I've been wording some things poorly without noticing until much later due to wanting to hastily respond to the discussions, especially today when I've been so busy with homework ._.

 

I have to manage it now that you've challenged me.

I may say I told you so.

 

@Marushi I have work so I can't really wall post right now.

But as I said the only suspicion I have had of anyone really who is still breathing is Kaze and Princess, Kaze has obviously just marked himself for death tonight but has made himself known as a town, Princess on the other hand has been someone who's pointed fingers and sidestepped blame a few times, and has been the only person i've had a strong feeling about since early game.

He would be my only real 'stab' if we were to leave Mish up to the Vigilante.

 

You have already failed, good sir.

 

Hoping people actually intend to vote and post this day, very quiet

 

This is a really lost post so beware.

I'm going to follow the line of thought that Hayabusa, Cat~ and Princess are at least suspct.

Okay, following up on what I've found when looking at Cat. The only 2 major contributions I've found are a vote for Bite the Dust which swiftly turned into a vote for Default a couple of pages late, after the Default wagon was formed. He was interestingly, 6th in the list of voters after Jiku Neon who tipped the vote into Soft Lynch territory. I'm not sure it was Mak, or if my brain is decieving me into thinking it was, but if the Mafia are likely to be pushing Mafia benefitting wagons along rather than pushing them, does somewhat fit in because they're finalising it.

Now, what I find interesting is that it actually went up to 8, one shy of Hard Lynch territory and then Princess dropped the hammer. So, it might be a little bit of a shot in the dark, but it could be that Princess was trying to reduce Town discussion time by doing the Hard Lynch when it was already a Soft Lynch. Honestly, I'm not sure why Town made it a Hard Lynch. There MUST be townies who took it to 9, otherwise that makes Cat+, Hyuge, BtD AND Princess Mafia. That seems somewhat unlikely to me, I don't know about you guys.

Other than that, Cat~'s content seems pretty sparse to me. But, as has been suggested, Mafia may live in the quiet places of the thread, occasionally making their moves driving town forward. So, I think they may be worth considering.

Hayabusa is a really odd case because he doesn't DO much, he's just kind of there. When pressed for opinions he was pretty passive, citing people like Mak's examples (which is, in that of itself, not bad he's a pretty vocal guy).
"The Fuk seems just a little suspicious, having noticed when people went inactive and questioning such members."
"default also seems a bit defensive. Could be something pescetarian-y with that...could be my own paranoia. /shrug"
Those are the only two opinions that I've really seen out of him. I might have missed some in my trawling through posts. He also seemed surprised at TaleWind's death, but I can't say that means an awful lot.

The thing with Hayabusa's posts is, that without the Mafia Goggles on it seems like he's just agreeing with 'informed' opinions and playing the general, 'follow the leader' townie with no real predicitions of any kind. With the proverbial Mafia Goggles on, this all comes off as a lot more sinister as it looks like he's showing interesting in furthering Mafia goals of lynching town while pretending to be the ignorant town. But, like I said, that's with the Mafia Goggles on. The issue with looking through the Mafia Goggles is that pretty much everyone is suspicious when you've got those. Nobody is beyond suspicion, although some are more plausible than others. A lot of people did this to Makaze, and to be honest I'm going to put my faith in but I'll have an eye on him. It's quite the gambit he just made, and I'm wondering if he wants to put on this act in order to appear totally town, by bravely putting his life on the line. It could draw the real Watcher out, or put them into a position where nobody would believe them because the Watcher just declared themselves. If the 'real' Watcher were baited out then the Mafia could easily kill them. However, I don't subscibe to the theory. I want to believe Mak is town and my gut says he is, but in Mafia I think it's healthy to have a hint of suspicion, and an idea of what game they might be playing if they are Mafia.

When I used the search function in the thread, for me it didn't return anywhere near half the amount of content I thought it would for Princess ♥, so I'm a little stuck on that one. From what I remember of Luxord, they're on the verge of suspicion but not quite there. Their behaviour is interesting, and I can't quite describe it (Once again, doesn't help I'm not very good at finding their posts which would help), so I'll leave one of you for that. But perhaps take into account Princess caused an unncessary Hard Lynch. That could be a zealous townie, or a Mafia reducing discussion time. What were they trying to achieve with that, one must ask? For Town it seems logical (to me at least) to wait just in case any last information or points leak out.

That's what I can find on the people Mish is unsure on. It's usless looking at myself and by now people should have figured out what I think of Maru. Putting everything together I'm not convinced by Hyuge. I've voiced some concerns about cstar earlier that Mak doesn't seem to think much of, but I'm taking a look anyway.

And cstar is basically a dead end. They're too quiet for my liking, but that's all that I can really throw at them. I can't say they're super suspect, because really, they're not. Like some people they're just... There. I don't like that at this juncture. I'd like to see people get actively involved because at this point, we can't afford to NOT have people contributing.

My final point to make is that my first post was a first impression. It was literally that. My immediate thoughts put down in the thread. I wanted to do that because I didn't want to have to wait to get another post out and I wanted to kick off the conversation for everyone else. Well, it turns out I didn't need to because Mak did a pretty good job of that himself, but either way, there you go. That was basically semi-structured stream of conciousness.

 

I said I would leave the detecting up to you, not the posting.

 

THank you, Calxiyn, for that post. There's not much I want to draw attention to, except the following:

So I just want to address the issue of the possibility of Makaze being Mafia fabricating the whole thing. I don't think this is the case, and here are my reasons for thinking so:

• default had one opportunity to investigate a player. Judging from his stance regarding Makaze on day two, it is safe to assume that he knew Makaze had a role. This is confirmation that at the very least, Makaze is truthful regarding the fact that he has a role.
• Mish's reaction to Makaze's accusations are also telling of the situation. If Mish was a vanilla townie and Makaze had completely fabricated the visit, Mish would have reacted in a different fashion; possibly from a stance of fear, and they would out and out say "Makaze's lying." Trying to offer different reasons for their presence at Midnight's place tells that they admit they were there and are looking half-heartedly (even saying it was all but confirmed) for an excuse. These excuses didn't hold up.
• It is one of the only explanations that make sense. Makaze can't be the Vigilante. If Makaze knows that Mish is Mafia and he were the vig, he would not lie about being the watcher to get us to lynch Mish, he would wait until night and kill her himself.
• He can't be the redirector, because the only way this is possible would be if Mish were the Vig, went to kill somebody else, Makaze inexplicably knew Mish was the Vig, sent her to Midnight's place, had the Mafia choose not to kill anyone, framed Mish by pretending to be the watcher, and then Mish doesn't defend themselves and sits back, offering implausible excuses instead of refuting the claim.
• Obvi he isn't the reporter, and if he had the BPV, he would not know that Mish visited Midnight.
• If he was the tracker instead of the watcher, then he would have tracked Mish at random and been lucky, while it makes sense that as the watcher he watched Midnight and his patience paid out.

So in conclusion, while it is possible for a member of the mafia to frame a townie for a death, the above evidence makes this pretty much impossible in this case. Makaze is the watcher, and Mish is Mafia. I can't see any other explanation for the combined behavior of Makaze, Mish, and dafault.

 

Cal, I'm curious about this. You went into depth as to why you thought other members were(n't) mafia, but then just dropped my name and moved on. That's a little odd, all things considered -- like you're throwing a grenade and walking away. If you find something suspicious you should be voicing it, otherwise you're just sewing seeds of doubt in our fellow townies without explaining your reasonings. I would like the courtesy of being allowed to defend myself should speculation arise, rather than just being casually targeted for no reason.

It just doesn't sit right with me that you would do that after how long your post was.

 

Sorry about the misunderstanding. That was bad phrasing from me. I was trying to say that "I'm not convinced by Hyuge being Mafia." by way of confirming your townness. Apologies for the misunderstanding about that.

Also, side note: Where the heck is @What? when you need him??

 

So despite your wishing to say you feel hyuge is town as opposed to Mafia, you still haven't provided much reasoning. What makes you feel like hyuge is town?

 

"I feel like spending too much time waiting on The Fuk? will be a bad thing, considering he said he would not be back until Thursday and no concrete time as to when. If everyone feels highly suspicious of TF?, then we should push forward with it because we have just over 24 hours left. If not, then we need a new person to go with. I honestly don't have much suspicion of anyone right now, but I do feel uneasy about Luxord."

"You've talked a little bit, but over all, not a lot. I would like to hear more from you @Cat~ as to whom you find the most suspicious and why we shouldn't suspect you at all, considering you mostly sheep and don't usually have a lot to say. [[ you don't need to post a 5 - paragraph essay ]] to have a sizable amount of helpfulness."

"@What? I would like to know what suspicions you have of me. I asked before the end of the last day, but you didn't post after that."


That's why. Hyuge's behaviour is similar to that of the people we have considered proactively town. It is fairly unanimous at this point that Makaze WAS Town the entire time and his lines of operation can be seen here, although in a far less aggressive manner. Hyuge has been more cautious than Mak and has constantly appealed to the Town to discuss, whereas many have simply not advocated discussion and merely got on with the lynching. That in that of itself is not a bad thing for those townies, but I find it hard to believe that a Mafia member WOULD suggest that the Town talks more, because that wouldn't make sense. That adds the chance of someone slipping up, or someone making a connection that otherwise they may not have made. I also find that the way she has defended herself is fairly calm and reasonable, as opposed to turtling up and getting very defensive.

In my eyes, Hyuge looks town because she is advocating pro town action (like discussion) and thinking about lynching in a fairly sensible manner, holding suspicions and only following when time pressed or sure.

Happy with the explanation and above quotes?

Oh, and... Makaze stop trying to not post to fulfill some challenge and do some more work. The chances are the Mafia will kill you tonight so you may as well go out as you lived.

Actually there's a thought. What if the Mafia DON'T kill Makaze, and Mish is mafia?

 

I've already done almost all the work this game.

I'll offer a bit of input since you asked.

hyuge's behavior is strange on a few levels.

It's true that they have advocated discussion but advocating is most of what they've done. They haven't taken any sides or made any cases. They've pushed others to discuss but haven't said anything of value themselves. To a watchful eye it looks like they have been playing town without actually contributing to town's work itself.

The way they reacted to my reveal threw more than one red flag. Firstly they confirmed my role aloud. They conveniently missed my reason for not revealing my role outright. Revealing my role puts a stop to speculation. It's harder to get reactions that way. Secondly, they voted on Mish without comment or expansion. It reads like she decided Mish was dead and just voted to get it over with.

Soon after I explained why Mish was confirmed mafia, hyuge rescinded her vote on Mish, saying 'something doesn't seem right'. The only thing that changed during this time was that Mish dug herself an even deeper grave. This strikes me as odd since she was so convinced before with less proof.

When asked to do detective work, she asked me why I Watched Midnight. She tried once again to learn about my role and my actions. She said she knew why I Watched Midnight already. This doesn't make sense for someone who knows my alignment. They don't gain anything by interrogating me about my reasons. Maybe, just maybe, if I made a mistake or came across as defensive then it could be turned against me, but that still wouldn't change the information I presented.

hyuge promised better detective work when they were not at work. Here we are, two days later and nothing to show for it. Instead of investigation, we see her defending herself and painting someone else as bad based on a misconception.

Finally, Mish listed hyuge in her list of town reads before the reveal. hyuge has been on my radar for a while as someone who makes a lot of promises that they don't follow through on. Mish naming her among the town-likes despite her low contribution raised yet another flag.

The advocating discussion makes sense if you want to look town.
The not practicing what you preach makes sense if you don't actually want to help town.
The outing my role makes sense if they want to stop speculation and interrupt my investigation.
The voting without expansion makes sense if she wants to appear sold on the case without helping me with my investigation.
The out of nowhere unvoting make sense as self-defense after being called out for voting without comment.
The not following up with actual detective work makes sense if you want someone else to make a bad move first to get attention off of yourself.
The self-defense when self-defense is not needed makes sense when someone feels they are on the ropes and when someone needs a new target.

I suspect hyuge is Mish's scum buddy.[DOUBLEPOST=1410382757][/DOUBLEPOST]If you need more help than that then goddess help you.

 

Thank you, Calxiyn. As for the above thought, are you suggesting they're both Mafia?

Assuming this to be the case (mainly to have something more to talk about) here's what I think of this line of reasoning.

If Makaze and Mish are both Mafia than I feel today would be the worst mistake any member of the mafiosa could make. Nobody really suspected Mish at all. For Mafia Makaze to sell out Mafia Mish in order to prove himself town would be suicide the next day if he were to be left alive during the night phase. If he were to be left alive in the night phase, he would almost certainly be lynched the next day due to suspicion. Two Mafia down when at best only one (Mafia Makaze) might have been lynched. And since I had thought he was the Vigilante, I at least would have tried to keep that from happening, although I probs would not have been successful. If Makaze and Mish are both Mafia, then for him to try and bring Mish down with him would be the most selfish thing to do, and would, I believe, cost them the game.

If you are NOT still trying to say that Makaze is Mafia, then this question doesn't make sense to me. If Makaze is left alive during the night phase, especially now that this has been brought up, I would almost say that he would be left alive intentionally by the Mafia in an attempt to "confirm" his scumminess and get us to lynch him ourselves. If this happened, I would say the Mafia are not exactly playing a particularly smart game in the long-term. If they know that Makaze is all but confirmed as the Town Watcher, and they left him alive for another night in order to cause us to lynch him ourselves, they would be giving him one more watch, and one more day to tell us things he has learned. We might not believe him immediately, but assuming we play into this hypothetical Mafia scheme and lynch him ourselves, he would then be confirmed town and we would have even more info to look at.

So in conclusion, I believe it to be all but impossible for Makaze to be Mafia. And the fact that you seem to insist that he might still be, despite the amount of evidence against such a theory, is actually making me feel more and more suspicious regarding your alignment.

I know you say that you like to try and see things as if people are Mafia so you can understand their actions in light of such a theory. So let me play a game.

I'm going to see your actions in light of a Mafia member. I'm rather busy today, so I'm only going to focus on this day's actions. Firstly, you post regarding Midnight's death, saying that the only way in which it's surprising is the fact that the Mafia are killing off someone you had no doubts about. You are certain to say that you had no doubts regarding her alignment. Painting yourself as townie listening to confirmed townie.

You then proceed to bring up Hayabusa and Cstar as possible Mafia suspects, on no other grounds than the fact that they're wishy-washy. Pointing fingers with no real reasoning to back them.

After this, you close off your post by again making sure that for better or worse, you look up to Makaze and myself, and Midnight. Painting yourself as townie listening to confirmed townies.

You then, after I mention the possibility of some people in Mish's post being Mafia, focus on Cat, Princess, and Hayabusa. You do provide reasoning for them, but your reasoning mainly revolves around how quiet they all are, and how quiet people might be Mafia. You now have named four different "quiet" people as possible suspects for not many other reasons than being quiet. Painting yourself as active town while pointing fingers at inactive town, with no real reasoning to back them.

Then you proceed to say that there's a possibility Makaze fabricated his story, even saying "A lot of people did this to Makaze, and to be honest I'm going to put my faith in but I'll have an eye on him. It's quite the gambit he just made, and I'm wondering if he wants to put on this act in order to appear totally town, by bravely putting his life on the line. It could draw the real Watcher out, or put them into a position where nobody would believe them because the Watcher just declared themselves. If the 'real' Watcher were baited out then the Mafia could easily kill them." Considering in your last post, you cited Makaze as a person you look up to a lot, you seem to have gained some suspicion here, now that he is less suspicious. If you truly thought he was helping, but you were still a bit suspicious, it would seem that confirmation would alleviate suspicion instead of adding more to it. You even say "It could draw the real Watcher out." Implying that he is not the real watcher. And yes, I realize that you're saying hypothetically, but you word things as if his lying is MORE plausible than his telling the truth. Painting yourself as concerned townie while pointing fingers at someone who is now a proven threat to the Mafia.

You then again put some suspicions out there regarding Princess, who I can't be certain of but don't at this point think to be Mafia, and Cstar. Making it twice each on this day alone you bring up Hayabusa, Cstar, and Princess. Subtly continuing to push the three of them into suspicion while painting yourself as active townie concerned about inactive townies.

On to your third post, which explains why you believe hyuge to be town. Can't say anything about your reasoning there, it makes sense. But in this reasoning, you say again that Makaze is pretty much known town. But later in the same post, you bring up a "just in case" Mafia-Goggles post implying that both Makaze and Mish are Mafia (addressed above, in case this tl;dr wall-post is so long anyone's forgotten). This just doesn't seem right. You say that you think Makaze's town. As soon as he confirms it, you think he might be Mafia. Then you cite his towniness as part of your defense for hyuge. Immediately turning around and giving another "what if he's Mafia" prod. Painting a practically-confirmed townie as Mafia anyway. Why? If your gut wants to say he's town, like you say it does, then why do you continue to look for reasons to suspect him?

After writing the above, I saw Makaze's post. His suspicions regarding hyuge (if he is correct, of course. hyuge is not confirmed) also makes sense with my suspicions regarding you. In your post, you simultaneously defend hyuge while again looking for reasons to suspect Makaze. You can think he's wrong about hyuge without trying to make it look like he's doing it on purpose or maliciously. So why is that someone you profess to think is town is suddenly more suspicious now that they're coming down on Mish and hyuge?

Bulleting this list for clarity:

• You say you tend to trust Makaze, and, for all intents and purposes, have been all but shadowing him and I for most of this game.
• Makaze reveals Mish to be Mafia.
• You suddenly wonder if Makaze is Mafia and made up everything about Mish.
• We all but prove Makaze can't be lying about Mish.
• Makaze begins to question hyuge.
• You wonder if Makaze and Mish are both Mafia working together to "prove" Makaze town for one more night, while defending hyuge.

This, in conclusion, makes me think you are also Mafia.

What have you to say in your defense?

 

Oh... I never actually thought about it like that. This is why I asked you to come back because you happen to have a good eye for things. Wait. Mak that makes a lots of sense, considering that Mish also 'confirmed' that Hyuge was town. I should should have been looking to disprove her being town rather than prove it. Going to need to adjust to thinking about it like that. I can see your points. Also, that might explain why Hyuge doesn't get too defensive, because she knows that the mafia are at her back to give her a boost by commenting about her lack of mafia-ness. Since the chances are Makaze is going to die tonight, does that therefore mean that they're going to start talking more, since one of the major maf hunters is probably going to bite the dust? Can we keep an eye on that?

Okay, allow me to try and explain myself here. This is a bit of a jumble and I'll be honest, I don't expect to make it out of this one. I'm one for putting my thoughts out in the thread when I can. Today is rather exceptional I normally wouldn't post this much and therefore be able to organise my thoughts better, but my posting time is limited by real life stuff, so I'm kind of in a scramble and today's posting has just been hectic for me. So, if there's a lack of clarity in my thought process, that's why. Now I see why other players get really stressed out here.

The reason I do that, is because in my mind the way this game is meant to be played is to have an alibi for every situation. That's just how I think. That could very well be the wrong attitude to have, but I'm of the firm belief that you need to have a case where you can. If you can't find a case, they're probably innocent or too quiet. That's that. I'll be honest, this is actually pretty mentally taxing for me at the moment, because I'm trying to get myself into a spot where I can contribute at least semi-useful things and have people listen. People listen to those that post a lot, and make good reasoning. Unfortunately, it looks like I've overdone it and screwed myself by theorising and putting too many of the weirder/dubious ideas out on the table.

You're right. My behaviour is inconsistent, because frankly, I'm getting an information overload here. Makaze showed up out of nowhere and pointed out a whole load of stuff, I'm trying to figure out any way that this will go wrong.

I'm hesitant to even use town and mafia in this post because the crosshairs are already set on me and I don't want to make some stupid move that'll align me even more strongly with the mafia here. I've tried to be more useful, and failed. That's what's happened here. I can't defend myself any further, and I'm not going to try, because I'll dig myself deeper. I didn't want to make a scene out of it, I just wanted to put ideas out there. That's all. What do you want from me? We need more discussion, I've tried. At least we have something. I'm more than willing to admit I was wrong about Hyuge and if you guys think she's bad, then I'll follow, but please try and understand this is an honest mistake because as soon as this situation started, it has only got more and more stressful. I mean, I'll step out for the rest of the in game day if you think that's useful, or if you want I can make a post with my final, definite thoughts?

Also, I hate to keep bringing this up but everyone seems to have kinda disappeared :/

 

Let's test that...

##Vote: hyuge

 

Oh, I am by no means suggesting that you stop posting, though if you're getting too stressed out, I agree that this is only a game and your peace of mind is more important. But still, don't feel that your coming under pressure means that you've done something wrong. It just means that we're suspecting you. I came down pretty hard on Makaze on day 2, I think it was, and now I don't suspect him at all. Like I said later, those who post a lot will eventually post something suspicious. I still think you're pretty suspicious, but time will tell.

As for what I want from you, you have provided that very well. I wanted to see how you would react to the arguments I made against you. Your reaction is very helpful to me, and is exactly what I asked for.

But don't just follow Makaze and I simply because. That is the opposite of what I'd like people to do, and saying you will doesn't help your case at all. Makaze and I are fallible. I think we've proven at least that much, regarding the Fuk?. Just because one or both of us may read something into hyuge does not mean that you should follow. It is right for you to defend those you believe to be innocent. Don't slip into sheep mode because I came down on you too hard.

As for everyone else, don't use this as an excuse to not post. I understand being afraid that you'll say something wrong, but if you don't say anything at all, We. Will. Lose. Triple emphasis. Make yourself heard, talk about things, discuss different theories. If you end up being lynched, so be it. Everyone dies eventually. Make sure we actually have something to look at when you're gone.

In fact, I'd like to issue a challenge. Who is brave enough to come to Calxiyn's defense? I want to hear what you all have to say about this. If you think she's town, Tell me why. If you think I'm right, Tell me why! This silence is ridiculous. In understand being busy, but for heavens sake. Maybe the Vig should kill off the people who refuse to post so the rest of us can focus on narrowing down the posters. At the very least, maybe the idea of it will scare some of you into actually contributing.

 

Makaze in my opinion, since you saw Mish kill Midnight, I'd say they are the most reliable vote. Unless we want to keep him around to worm out anyone else, and if we are stumped then policy murder him? I'll assume that's your plan, which seems logical to me.

#Vote Hyuge/lost girl

@lost girl , can you defend against Mak's points?

@Marushi , I'm following Mak in this because I have faith that he's on to something and at the very least, we should get something out of her. If not, then I guess we'll just have to hold on and see what happens.

 

My plan is to see how serious you are about your withdrawal of your defense.

We know that Mish is mafia. We have a vig. Mafia can't find the vig. They will have to kill me instead. The vig can take this opportunity to kill Mish while we gather info on her buddies and lynch someone else today.

Mish is a girl.

 

Alright, if that's what you're going to do, so be it. In that case, you forgot to bold the vote. It does not count if it's not bolded.