Mafia [Mafia] Miami Haze ~ GAME OVER (MAFIA WINS)

There is no way for me to gain info by being watched, if that's what you mean.

Otherwise, yeah. There is no point to being subtle. It might help me make it through the night having mafia know that I'm being watched.

 

Alright, JUST finished my homework, so lemme gather my thoughts from the last few pages of catchup.

While I agree with the notion of going after those who are quiet (including myself,) it's a bit suspicious, at least to me, that Midnight Star changed vote in the span of about an hour...though, not suspicious enough for me to vote. Because I also agree that at least a few lynches will definitely start coaxing more...suspicious activity.

 

How do you feel about the already mentioned people?

How do you read Me, The Fuk?, default, and What??

Who is your preferred lynch target?

 

Makaze, I'll respond to you in better detail as soon as I figure out how to make my internet browser not leak hot memory all over the damn place. Firefox just might be done for pertaining to my use,

For now though, could you tell me who the already mentioned people are, specificlally?

 

Meant the people I explicitly asked about. My bad.

 

Hey guys, sorry I've been gone all day! My "under the weather" spell turned into a real day waster. I'm still feeling a little out of it, but I'm a bit better, and wanted to at least post about some of the stuff going on, and some stuff I've been thinking about today.

So, as for voting Hayabusa, I don't think that's the way to go. Like people have said, lynching him would get us very little info, and just because he might be the most suspicious in the quiet group doesn't mean he's most suspicious player here. We don't have to pick one lynchee from each group and decide who to kill of those three. When I said we should "focus" on finding mafia from each group, that was the wrong choice of word. What I meant was, we shouldn't overlook any group in favor of the other. Someone could easily be hiding among the quiet ones, banking on the fact that we'll all be like "Nah, the mafia would be smarter than to do that," and ignore them. Likewise, someone could be hiding in the vocal group, banking on the fact that we'll all be like "Nah, you're too valuable, we can't get rid of you, just in case!" And someone could be hiding in the middle group, which, really, is the safest of the three, I think. And THEY'RE banking on the fact that the quiet and vocal ones will be lynched for suspicion, and they'll be as average as the other average poster.

However, I also don't think we should lynch Makaze tonight either. True, he's given the most cause for suspicion- but he's also posted way more. In fact, he's made 120 posts total, which is just over three times more than the second highest poster, which would be lost girl at 38. So I'm not saying I think he's town- because I can't say I believe that- but if we take into account his personality and the fact that he's used to playing this game under very different circumstances, I think we can afford to at least give him one more day.

Now then, I want to say why I kinda find Vivi's Darkside suspicious. First, I'll admit it's mostly on instinct. There's something telling me she's not what she seems, it's like a warning bell in my head, but I don't know why. But there are other little things, or mainly just one that I remember now, that makes me think I can at least mention that I'm suspicious. When the subject of quiet members first was brought up, we listed Jiku, Hayabusa, and Bite the Dust for their inactivity. I then brought up Zazu, TwlightBlader, and TheWorldThatNeverWas, as having posted a bit more regularly but not providing a whole lot by way of content. Then Vivi voted for hyuge, citing the quiet/no content thing. But... hyuge has posted far too often, with too much thought, to be counted as part of that group. And, I don't remember the totals as far as posts go for that particular moment, but I remember that hyuge had posted even way more than Vivi herself. idk, maybe I'm reading too much into this, but if Vivi had given a different reason for voting hyuge other than the fact that hyuge was "too quiet" when that wasn't really the case, I wouldn't even give it a second thought.

One last thing, something I've been thinking about today, are What?'s posts. On day 1, I kinda got the feeling that he would sort of be a shark in this game, if that makes any sense. He would lurk peaceably just beneath the surface until he found something to bite, and then he'd bite hard. In a way, I think this is playing out... but, just like with Vivi, I'm hearing warning bells in my head and don't quite know why. I think it's because he hasn't really come up and accused anyone yet, it's all been hypothetical analysis behind the reasons the dead are... well, dead, and a warning not to rush into a lynch when we could stand to gain by waiting. Which, is all true and logical, but... Idk, you'd think with someone as analytical and observant as What?, who's been watching and waiting from the sidelines all this time, there would be something more...

So, in conclusion, my head is killing me and I might not make much sense, so take the above with a grain of salt. And for clarification, I'm not saying either Vivi or What? are suspicious enough to vote for yet... I'm just saying they're suspicious to me. Take what you will, and see if you notice anything worth mentioning, either to add to the list or to say "No, that's not suspicious, and here's why." Or something. XD

 

@Marushi, Vivi is a guy. I don't have time to write anything in length / detail as I am about to go to bed and I am on my phone, but for the time being I will just:

__// Unvote: Hayabusa

 

I don't think the high amount of posts that Makaze has been making makes him any less mafia (in the same sense someone who doesn't post at all makes them any less town). My point is post count is irrelevant. In fact I think it is more or less working against Makaze, if he becomes "too important to lose" by contributing the amount that he has, he gets a free pass to the end of the game. Mafia or not. That risk alone scares me.

I'll admit that either Ashwin is trying too hard to seem like town, or he is one of the best people at writing out mafia essays. This is also a bit of a scare. Why would a mafia member be that open, helpful, etc? Well if they did such a thing, it would more or less buy the trust of the townies. So this brings up the question of "at what point is 'this person' going too far". Perhaps this is another reason why people aren't posting as much, they don't want to step too far out of that "foggy area" where people just don't know about them. People being indifferent about 'that person' is far more comforting than being on the opposite side of suspicion. I mean look at Beau, he even ducked out. That's enough to scare people into not posting.


----

This may all seem like me rambling on endlessly, but people wanted me to post. Sorry if it seems confusing.

 

Try to keep your thoughts in order. You've suspected almost everyone who has posted at this point.

What? has been busy. That said, if he stalls out again or doesn't have a real case in his next post, it will be mighty suspicious. Lots of promises with very little pay out.[DOUBLEPOST=1409203478][/DOUBLEPOST]

This kind of reasoning is dangerous because it essentially encourages town not to contribute out of self-preservation.

The alternative scenario to me contributing less is having other people contribute more. My level of contribution is relative. Relative to a very low level of contribution on the parts of a lot of people. If you want to make me disposable, it's far more helpful for you to have people who can replace me than to just plain get rid of people who contribute a lot altogether.

You'll have to learn this the hard way. If that means lynching active people for the sake of it, so be it.

 

My Day 1 pursuit was The Fuk? and I can make clear that he is still one of the highest people on my lists as the moment, if you wish to have an idea of where my searching lies currently. His current activity (or lack thereof) combined with everything from yesterday is pointing to this. I was originally for Hayabusa but at this point I feel that their activity is not a sufficient indicator of whether or not they are treading mafia, but we will see.

In response to hyuge's requests, I must properly organize the vocal sets of individuals, but I find the following people worth paying close attention to, without any particular order and with varying amounts of as-of-yet unspecified intensity: default; The Fuk?; Luxord; hyuge; Vivi; TwilightBlader; Calxiyn; Cat; Makaze; Marushi; though this list is most definitely subject to change, especially considering the last two days of work have left me with little time to analyze the metadays of Day 2. Keep in mind the aforementioned is not simply restricted to mafia but also potential named roles. It feels very generalized at the moment but keeping the pool here would help solidify which peaks and which troughs would exist in the particular specifications of who is what from that particular pool. And that is what my current research is heading into, whether or not the pool will change.

 

You realize that your pool covers over half of the surviving players, right?

 

I do. Was going to take the time to narrow it down, actually. Expect a more thorough list later tonight.

@default do you mind addressing some of the arguments put towards you when you have the time?

 

I see you as the one trying to sniff people out the most, but what that says about you in terms of your position is inconclusive data.
The Fuk seems just a little suspicious, having noticed when people went inactive and questioning such members.
default also seems a bit defensive. Could be something pescetarian-y with that...could be my own paranoia. /shrug
What?? eh, doesn't give me a certain vibe yet.

Right now, if I HAD to vote for a soft lynch of something, I'd have to go with default, but it's not a strong hunch yet.

 

Hey, guys. I apologize for my inactivity in general, but I've read the last ten pages in an attempt to catch up a little and act in a more or less informed manner. I will attempt not to fall behind again.

As some may know, I'm more fond of facts than I am of this interpretation of motives that has been going on so I'd like to ask if anyone's compiled a list that includes the following dimensions: players with post totals, player deaths with timestamp and cause, lynch votes with timestamp, alignments with roles/modifiers, vote retractions with timestamp, and current vote totals. If no one has made this list, I will begin sifting for it myself and get back to you guys later. The relevance here is with an up to date list of these and maybe some other things you can confirm people's hard actions and the results of them. With this you can see who's hunting, who's being targeted, who's making bad guesses, and so on. It seems like obvious stuff but you've argued over these details once or twice in this thread so I think it's worth it for my own benefit at the least.

While I do favor my metrics and numbers, it's obvious that they're not as useful as I once pretended they were so yeah, I will be to an extent scrutinizing posts people make in the future. Not now, though, I feel it's a little too late for me to armchair psychiatrist today.

The only number people have really become attached to this game is post count it seems. I get it, it reflects activity. But I remember that in the last game the mafia manipulated their post counts to fall into certain activity levels intentionally and targeted people in the lower post ranges to force people to look at the more active members for lynch targets. It didn't really work out too well, in my opinion, but mafia won in the end so maybe it did account for something. So take note of what people say and what people seem to believe. A mafia's moves should always surprise the other players, because it means that they're not being figured out so they will try to act subversively and do things that seem perhaps wrong at times just to stay ahead of the game. This is based on a one game sample size though, so salt it before you eat it.

If I had to vote for someone right now I'd probably just hop on the default or Bite the Dust wagons to get something done before the end of the day but I'll see how I feel come morning.[DOUBLEPOST=1409211309][/DOUBLEPOST]Okay, fucking nevermind part of that, Bite the Dust has no votes on the last votal post. I am apparently living in an alternate dimension where that was a thing.

 

Haha, yeah about that, I didn't know Hyuge was lostgirl, I just read the name in the playerlist and didn't associate it with anyone I knew, since it's not her normal name, that's why I voted her, because I didn't think I'd seen a newbie called lostgirl playing. It's why I was happy enough to unvote her. People need to be their default ****ing names when playing this ****.

 

Sometimes I dislike my timezone, I have to either stay up late to catch everyone being active or everyone posts when I'm asleep. Anyway, last day, I'm going to have to work out when it is exactly as I got it wrong with my conversions as to when the day starts.

@Hayabusa Sorry, basically I'm really undecisive. I saw that virtually everybody was suspicious of you so I thought you were probably a good person to vote for so I did. Then afterwards decided to voice me thoughts of Makaze, which I'd been thinking about just to share my thoughts and then after re-reading the OP, which kinda agreed with my reasoning with Makaze, I decided to make a post with that. I then realised I was being a bit of a hypocrite by voting for someone inactive when I was advising people not to so I changed my vote. It was a bit spontaneous though and I can see how it would seem suspicious. Sorry~

(...I thought lost girl was Saxima for ages, oops)

Anyway, I'm going to try and compile the post counts as requested now. Stay tuned~[DOUBLEPOST=1409219762][/DOUBLEPOST]Member Posts
Cat~ 21
Calxiyn 15
Makaze 131
default 29
Vivi's Dark Side 20
TwilightBlader 7
lost girl 43
Jiku Neon 6
TheWorldThatNeverWas 22
Beau/Midnight Star 31/23
Princess ♥ 29
Marushi 39
Bite the Dust 7
Hayabusa 12
Zazu 16
The Fuk? 16
What? 27
Ɍeno/Kaldur'ahm 1/22[DOUBLEPOST=1409220449][/DOUBLEPOST]

And without Makaze,

[DOUBLEPOST=1409220641][/DOUBLEPOST]Bear in mind that this might not be completely representative as it does not show the quality of posts, some people may post a lot with one liners while others may only make a few posts but they are huge in detail helpful ones.[DOUBLEPOST=1409227713][/DOUBLEPOST]Ooh I figured out my mistake before, the deadline 7pm EST is Midnight in my time zone (GMT+1 due to daylight savings), that works for me.[DOUBLEPOST=1409239841][/DOUBLEPOST]I decided to put the numbers in order mainly because I was bored and nobody has been talking, it's funny how people have been put in the groups. I've seen The Fuk? in the most vocal group and he's got the same number of posts as Hayabusa who's got flack for being inactive.

Member Posts

Makaze 131
Beau/Midnight Star 54 (31/23)
lost girl 43
Marushi 39
default 29
Princess ♥ 29
What? 27
Ɍeno/Kaldur'ahm 23 (1/22)
TheWorldThatNeverWas 22
Cat~ 21
Vivi's Dark Side 20
The Fuk? 16
Zazu 16
Calxiyn 15
Hayabusa 12
Bite the Dust 7
TwilightBlader 7
Jiku Neon 6[DOUBLEPOST=1409239878][/DOUBLEPOST]I hate formatting and not being able to edit posts.

 

@Midnight Star, that last message says The Fuk? Has the same amount as Haya- kun, but according to your numbers, he has more. Also, half of Jiku's posts were made before the game even started, so I'm not sure how accurate this list actually is. Perhaps subtract the ones from before the start of ths game?

I'm sorry for any confusion my name change has caused anyone, and to keep from further confusion, I placed my de-facto name-o in my user title. Any who, I never really found Vivs, vote for me as suspicious, just as a way to invoke conversation from someone that had not recently posted, as i was indesposed at the time. I find it even less suspicious now as he explained that he did not realize it was me.

I am interested in hearing what Ashwin finds suspicious about me, so that i may properly prove my innocence.

As it stands right now, Ben looks to be the one set for a soft lynch today. If more votes are needed i will add mine to his as well, but i would like to give him the benefit of the doubt considering we have five more hours.

 

...Yeah, you're right. On all accounts here. I have no idea how I managed to misread The Fuk? and Hayabusa as having the same, I think I noticed he was fairly low down and had the same as a lot of people then must have got a bit mixed up and not checked properly when I was actually writing the post. Sorry. Also you're right about counting posts before the game started, I meant to make a note about that but forgot. I think when I made it I assumed everyone would just have one signing up post so it wouldn't matter but now you mention it, it makes the numbers more inaccurate. I'll try to rego over it, shame I can't edit it.

 

Hmm, @Cat~ and @TheFuk you guys haven't posted in a little while. What do you guys make of the current lynch targets?

TheFuk is probably the more relevant one to this question because his activity dropped right off after we stopped trying to lynch Mak (Not sure that there's anything suspect about that, just something I noticed).

 

Done!! New post list and graph, making adjustments by subtracting the posts made before the game started.

Member Posts
Makaze 126
Beau/Midnight Star 52
lost girl 38
Marushi 37
Princess ♥ 28
default 26
What? 26
TheWorldThatNeverWas 21
Cat~ 19
Ɍeno/Kaldur'ahm 19
Vivi's Dark Side 19
The Fuk? 16
Zazu 14
Calxiyn 13
Hayabusa 11
Bite the Dust 6
TwilightBlader 6
Jiku Neon 3

[DOUBLEPOST=1409256047][/DOUBLEPOST]3 hours to go and we don't have a soft-kill yet~