Mafia [Mafia] Miami Haze ~ GAME OVER (MAFIA WINS)

Unvote

I do not necessarily think that Beau's reactions so precisely fit in line with being anti-town in the vein of his indecision which seemed to stem as an extension of day one insecurity combined with the fact that he has been a fairly Prime Target since the beginning (amusingly through the actions of Krowley pointing things out, who is under Hyuge's chopping block). What I do find suspicious is his very shaky, very indirect defense, especially in regards to the accusations themselves. While I understand the haste of building a wagon as the day draws to an end, it is important that we do not fall into tunnel vision too quickly when we have at least a day left of gathering more information before settling on a final decision, definitely when a majority of the posts so far in today's metaday have been focusing on Beau's defense and we have not heard as much from the others who were accused in previous posts with reasonable explanations, like Krowley and Reno. That being said, this is not discouragement to pursue the potential true face behind Beau's words. He is high on my scumlist as well, or at the very least his actions seem to indicate he may not simply be a Vanilla Townie. No lynch should not be the result of the day's end.

@Hayabusa @Bite the Dust @TwilightBlader do you three have any thoughts on the innocence of the accused so far? There appear to be a few leading names at the moment, and you have all been awfully quiet.

 

So, I realize that this has already been discussed, but I felt I wanted to continue that discussion now that I'm here again. Because this REALLY doesn't sit right with me. People have tried to reason it out by saying "well, he's saying if we take out the quiet ones first, the Mafia will have to go for the loud ones, giving us more to go on." But this just doesn't make any sense, especially on the first day! We've already talked about how we can't know how the Mafia are going to act; not based on last game, not based on any confirmed Mafia, we have no pattern with which to determine the Mafia's true most likely move. So to say "he won't be a target for the Mafia" and then not to even provide reasoning behind this just screams red flag. Besides, even if we could be certain of the Mafia's next move, and we did know that he wouldn't be Mafia's target, this is still the first day! If Makaze were to be lynched by Mafia, then yes, we would be able to take a look at his posts and try to extrapolate any suspicions he might have, but that's all he's got, suspicions. There has not been an established pattern yet, there is nothing to go on save for word choice and basic personality reading, and even that is fallible until we all get to know each other better. There are no dots for us to connect, there hasn't been time to find any! In fact, while I'm on this subject, I'm gonna say that after reading all the above posts, I agree that the Mafia might take out a high-profile person first, BECAUSE that will give us less to go on later. And now for you to carte blanche say "the Mafia won't target Reno..." idk, that's just one more thing that makes me think you're bad news.

So, I would vote for you now, except I never unvoted you in the first place.

Aw, I'm flattered! Especially as others seem to agree. :D Love your Sherlock theme, btw. May have made the statement even better. XD

 

...is my response to that.

 

Whoa Jesus Christ You Guys Popped OFF

• Beau - 2 (Makaze, Trigger)
• default - 1 (Marushi)
• Krowley - 1 (h y u g e)
• Reno - 1 (default)
• TwilightBlader - 1 (Vivi's Dark Side)

With 20 players alive, it takes 10 to lynch and 5 to soft-lynch. Day ends Thursday, August 21st, 7:00 ᴘ.ᴍ. (EST).

Apologies if anything is inaccurate here, just let me know and I'll fix it.

Also, some news: Ɍeno has bowed out due to personal concerns and must be replaced. His slot is still technically eligible for vote, but unless I can contact and recruit one of our replacements real quick, don't expect a response any time soon.

 

well golly i sure am popular this game

 

Well, you certainly have been a rather hot topic. Tell me, Beau, if there were an hour till the deadline, who would you vote for and why? I'm really bored and I've been waiting for this thread to pick up. XD

 

Vote: Beau

My reasoning for this is neatly summed up by Makaze in this post

Beau's inconsistent behaviour is lending himself to suspicion, and being that we already have a further 2 members voting for them and a NoLynch is not a preferable result, I believe that this may be a worthwhile course of action. I also feel like the whole work thing, while yes it is a valid point that many of us do need to go to work, it isn't much of a crutch to stand on at this stage of the game.

 

Hello friends the **** up is back~

and after reading through everything I have decided to say No Lynch!


...

I'M JUST KIDDING AROUND. I just wanted to get that out of my system for a second.

Okay so I've been following along with the game just in case I needed to pop in and replace so fortunately I'm not entirely out of loop. I've been reading up people's posts and been trying to figure it out on my own time and well... I see interesting patterns going on but I'm not entirely sure if they were supposed to be this way. I know people have tendencies to just be like "hey y'all" and stuff when only talking about one person. Like sometimes I say "all y'all women." when clearly I am a woman as well.

There is the issue that people like to joke and it gathers attention, and it all really does come down to word choice. In the first round, people don't tend to pay attention to word choice because they're just trying to get settled in. I would know, I'm terrible with word choice just... all the time. And I really don't know if I'll be able to fix that up, but at least for this game I'm going to try and not jump the gun like I did last time (because damn if it didn't get my team to lose)

Anywho, doing a quick once-over with posts I'm really not certain how I feel. There were quite a few people who wanted Makaze out immediately. Mostly bandwagon it seems, with explanations being kind of vague. From what I've already seen Makaze has a good head on his shoulders if he's already managed to intimidate people into suspicion. At the same time, he could be making people seem suspicious by pointing out flaws, when he could be mafia.

I honestly have nothing to say about Beau because this whole situation is confusing me. I am not going to defend any case for or against Beau at this point. I will wait until day two (if he or I make it to day two D :)

Right now, I'm not focused on the third-party role. The reason why is because they shouldn't have information yet (no night has happened) so they have nothing to try to twist the game to their advantage. Well, that could be assuming too much. The reporter may already have power. Who knows.

People need to stop using the "they were mafia last game so they probably aren't mafia again." excuse. Because like people have already said, dice have no memory.

As for what I think the mafia might do... it depends on who gets lynched really. One of the best things the mafia could do is leave people who are suspected mafia that aren't really mafia alive. It's something to hide behind. Especially if they are more vocal.

Okay so now done to the vote... and I'm Voting: @What?

Why? Ashwin's posts have been bothering me. He seems to be doing a LOT of joking around between his serious comments, and it just doesn't seem to me like a normal strategy for a townie. At least in my eyes. Granted, it's day one. I can change my vote if I want to, but this is what I'm going with for now.

 

I really don't think we should be voting Beau just yet, although I will admit he's acting somewhat suspiciously and we ought to keep an eye on him. I think we should wait mainly because I do think that if anything, his actions are more indicative of a third party role like the reporter, instead of Mafia. And although I said at first that I thought this would just make things worse for him if it were true, What? made some pretty good points about how the Reporter could be a major help as well, and I think we need a chance to let that develop. Not to mention, the majority of Beau's suspicious actions can be explained by his general behavior. I do wish he would make a little more of a defense for himself; when called to the stand to explain his behavior, he made only one or two legitimate excuses, and then tried to cast suspicion on the people coming against him, even making himself out to be the misunderstood and oblivious martyr. (Saying things like "I'd rather die in his place," "I just want to make sure that anyone else who feels like this knows they're not alone," things like that.) So yes, I think we need to keep a very close eye on Beau, but I don't think it would be wise to push for his lynch just yet.

 

What is the point of holding off until the end of the day? What will we gain by waiting?

Not rhetorical.

 

What do we gain by voting now?

 

Information. If a lot of people are okay with killing Beau, it probably means they are not mafia (since some of the people who hurried to the wagon are mafia). If we wait until the end of day, we can't capitalise on the info until after the lynch happens.

On that note, I think having only one major target a day is an issue. If you outright disagree with voting Beau, you need a good reason. If you agree with voting Beau, speak up.

We aren't going to learn anything if people keep their thoughts to themselves until it's too late to control the flow of votes. Make up your mind now, not at the end of phase.

Maybe I'm just impatient. I don't see the point in sitting around unless people think new information is going to come to light.

 

What do you mean by "since some of the people who hurried to the wagon are mafia" ? Are you speaking hypothetically or can you confirm they are mafia?

 

Hypothetically, statistically, et cetera. Mafia have incentive to join wagons on suspicious town. When a wagon forms, chances are that some of the people who are on the wagon are mafia. The bigger the wagon, the bigger the mafia involvement.

If we have trouble getting the necessary votes for a lynch on the hand, it's possible that this is because the mafia are actively staying away from it or arguing against it -- and they wouldn't do that unless the lynch was on the right track.

But... If we all hold back, don't speak our minds, and play it safe until the very last minute, we don't get to use those kinds of speculations. Mafia can fire off their votes at the end of the day without contributing much in the middle at little cost to themselves.

It takes ten votes to hammer the lynch in before deadline. We can afford at least five votes on a particular person without risking a mafia takeover. We can switch the bandwagon later if we want. Meanwhile, we would get all kinds of interesting info.

Waiting around just doesn't offer much in the way of help.

 

Fair reasoning. As I said before, it was partly in jest but also just noting reactions, though I tried to tone it down a bit in comparison to my analysis posts. It has been multiple times that people have been thinking too much of my joking so I will put it to an end if it will result in accidentally misdirecting assumptions and suspicions. And Day 1 itself is coming to an end as well. It is better if we just stick together with our thoughts.

My friend! This is not helping your case! You and a number of others have made no direct move to assist us with comment, strategy, or argumentation. While it is understandable that things are slow on the first day, I feel it would be for the best if you and the other aforementioned added something to both help keep any potential fingers of suspicion off of yourself and channel leads in who the Mafia could be. We are all rightly smart people, and one does not have to be a very vocal member to make poignant observations.

Anyhow, I have enough suspicion of The Fuk? to warrant some vocalization. Throughout the day thus far, he has primarily been disconnected from the Town with his posts, not directly contributing to major discussions barring one or two statements. He is not quite as inactive to be within the specter of the low-post lurkers, but has typically come in to make a few general comments under the radar of activity. He has also been a bit too quiet in offering his personal opinions and observations despite his post quantity, and his overall disengagement is what appears to me worth some further investigation.

Vote: @The Fuk?

 

If the situation is the bandwagoners and not the people who are being bandwagoned, why are we not voting for people who have clearly already set a bandwagon?

There's at least two groups of two here that seemed to have voted together. You and Trigger, default and Princess. You said yourself that you could tell Trigger's vote wasn't a serious one... but default and Princess were de facto bandwagoners? It's understandable to assume this, but you only seemed to have a problem with a vote against you when multiple people were aiming at you. One in a clear joking manner. It's making me believe you two are working together.

Princess and default were not much better, I couldn't see a clear defined reason for why they voted for you other than to vote. That looks suspicious as well in my eyes.

Beau still holds a concern in my eyes, but the more I think about it the more I get suspicious about you and Trigger.

unvote: What?
vote: Trigger

I could have just as well voted for Makaze, but I'm going more for the one that appears to be more of a "yes man"

if my hunches are wrong, I'll figure it out later... I always do.

 

Alright, first off, your first statement doesn't make sense to me, even with your explanation above. You say that if a lot of people are okay with it, they're probs not mafia because some of the people who hurried to join the bandwagon are probably mafia? The people who hurried to join the bandwagon ARE the people who are okay with it, as so far, there are only three people who have voted for him. That's the wagon. You seem to be saying that you think we could find out who the Mafia are by creating a bandwagon for Beau and seeing who hops on to bring in the hard lynch, never mind whether Beau is a Townie or not, because Townies almost never get a good kill on night one anyway. Maybe we never get a good kill on night one BECAUSE there are people who are too quick to discount the small chance that if we wait, we might. I understand it's not a very good chance, but it's a chance nonetheless. Also, if trying to get people to bandwagon on Beau is an entrapment scheme, you're being very obvious about it, announcing it before hand. If you want to trap someone, come up with a clever cover, don't make your plan a part of your explanation. Also, the idea that ending the day earlier will bring more info makes no sense either. A lynch cuts the day short, the day ends as soon as he gets a tenth vote, if we decide to lynch him Tuesday instead of Thursday, the only info we get is whether or not he was Mafia, and what people have said thus far. I DO think if we hold our horses more info will likely come to light, especially on the first day. We'll be able to get a good idea of where everyone stands, what relationships build, how everyone plays the game.

And I am attempting to give good reasons for my outright disagreement for voting Beau: I don't yet believe him to be Mafia. He may be, he might not be. Until we get closer to the deadline, I see no reason to rush to end the day and lynch someone if I don't think he's guilty. The day ends on Thursday, we have all day tomorrow to continue asking questions and keep looking for suspicious activity. And if, during that time, we don't find anyone else more suspicious (though, I suppose I've already established that I personally think default's the way to go) then we can vote for Beau, and if he is a townie, then you're right, we have very little chance of making the right choice on the first day. But I don't like how quick you are to use that excuse to explain your vote. It almost comes across as preemptive justification, as if you know his alignment and want to paint yourself in light of a helpful person who simply made a mistake- before the mistake is even made. So far, your reasons for finding Beau suspicious are a few minor offences that can easily be explained away, followed by the secret entrapment scheme you're telling everyone about. If you can't provide more reasoning behind your vote for Beau, then there is no reason for me to vote Beau early, and furthermore, no reason for you to, either.

More and more, your behavior is seeming suspicious to me. It could just be keeping with your norm, but then again, it could be something more. A natural leader who is known to speak his mind, sometimes to the point of being considered just plain argumentative, could be a very dangerous enemy or a very powerful ally, we've already decided that. However, if a very powerful ally is inclined to give in to tunnel vision or impatience, they could even be classified as a dangerous ally. I'm not changing my vote yet, because I still think default is acting slightly more suspicious, but you are officially on my threat list.

 

Mainly because I don't consider it an actual wagon until at least 5 people are on it in quick succession with similar reasons. Think about it statistically: 3-4/20 people are mafia. 2/20 people vote to lynch me, another 2/20 vote to lynch to Beau. What are the chances that all four of them are mafia? What about that one of them is mafia? Pretty low.

Assuming the ratio of scum to town is 1:4, when 5 people vote on a wagon, it's a decent bet that one of the five is mafia. It's not sure fire, but it's a decent bet. Worth considering at least. At 4 votes, the mafia have little reason to shy away from the vote because they are following the lead of other people whom they know are town. The number of scum involved in the vote should grow with the number of total votes.

We haven't had a real wagon yet. Highest we have is three. We have enough people to form five 3-person wagons and not involve a single scum. Hardly worth worrying about.

 

After re-reading it, I think I might have come across as a bit rude. I apologize if I was, it wasn't my intent. :)