Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

Thank you.

At this point, I think it's safe to say that Mixt is not going to be modkilled, so for now, this is a bit of a moot point, but this is very helpful to know for future reference.

Good, I'm looking forward to it.

 

DAY 3 VOTE COUNT 6:​

Mixt (2) - cstar, Calxiyn
Ghost (1) - Mish
Judge Sunrose (1) - Mixt

Not voting (5) - Midnight Star, Ghost, Judge Sunrose, Marushi, Cat~​

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to hammer.

Day 3 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 9. There are approximately 11 hours and 30 minutes until phase end.

 

Okay so I've just read through all that has been posted in this day phase and figured since I've been really inactive and really useless to town today, I really should post my thoughts. I haven't had chance to go through what happened day 2 or build any serious cases but there's still about 8 hours before I have to go to bed so I'll see what I can do. What I'm saying here are thoughts without much evidence but I just want to post something. Also it's seriously tempting for me to to go 50-50 on everyone because I have like no confidence in any of my reads, I know I'm usually wrong. However I've been told off and suspected for that before so I'm going to do my best to not be so indecisive.

I'm suspecting Marushi less than I did yesterday, though I don't know how much of that is me just really really hoping that she's town as I know how much influence she has over us. I will remind everyone though that in previous games where she was mafia, she did play super pro-town. (Also when you ask people to question you, I find that really intimidating and don't want to question you as it feels like you'll have a counter for everything I can ask. Is that intentional?)

I'm suspicious of Ghost currently because she seems to kinda fall under the radar. Her posts are never long or that risky but it's enough to give off the impression she is trying. cstar is also at a similar level but her posts I find more helpful so I'm less suspicious.


I'm still a little suspicious of Cal. I still don't understand her defending of Al215. (I think there was more things that bugged me but I can't remember what they were so I may expand upon this later.)

Mish, you made me seriously panic this morning when I saw your post about probably losing me. I knew we had one more day so as long as I posted today, I was okay but I think you thought the day ended yesterday, which made me doubt myself.

I was looking at the people who had voted for tale and cat (now both of them are confirmed), with the thought that there is probably at least one mafia member hidden among them to help them get lynched. Excluding everyone who has died or been confirmed town, that leaves Mish, cstar, Marushi and Ghost (Marushi being the only one who voted for both). This doesn't narrow it down at all considering that only leaves me and Cal whose roles haven't been confirmed and I think both of us verbally mentioned our suspicions of them even if we didn't vote.

I'd say my top mafia reads are Cal, Ghost and Mish. (I believe for now that Judge is cop) I know I haven't backed these up really, but as I've been super inactive I wanted to get a post out first and I can find evidence after.)

 

Sorry for the confusion. My knee jerk is that neither of us should vote because we cancel and it is pointless, then the rest of you have a bit more room to vote between us without hard lynch. But I realized as I was typing that that the obvious conclusion is that I'd be egging people to get Judge within a vote of hard and then spring my vote. So to make everyone more comfortable I put my vote down. And now Judge has every right to use his to balance out our my word against yours squabble.

As for my challenge, I'm not sure how you thought I was trying to stump you. My pie in the sky is that you might see something I missed since (despite doubting yourself at points) I do think you are much better at the analysis than I am. My practical goal was to show you that there just isn't convincing dirt on Judge. My most convincing argument is actually the lack of dirt. Judge didn't even have anyone vote for him before today. And this is in the same game where Cat almost got lynched for having too many tells and we're pretty sure now that she's innocent. But that is some pretty weak dirt. Not getting anyone trying to kill you is just a mark of a good player, not that they are Mafia or Town.

You're plan makes perfect sense and if I was anywhere but here I would be supporting it wholeheartedly. And that is why it is so damn hard to say that it's wrong. Basically you guys have a gamble.

If you guess I'm Mafia and are right: Mafia pretty much has to kill Judge tonight, and you are free tomorrow.
If you guess I'm Mafia and are wrong: Mafia gets an open night, and you lynch Judge tomorrow.

If you guess Judge is Mafia and are right: Mafia gets an open night, and you are free tomorrow.
If you guess Judge is Mafia and are wrong: Mafia gets an open night, and you lynch me tomorrow.

If you think we are equally likely to be Mafia then you have to choose me. You have the same risk of losing a day and needing tomorrow to hit your target, but you can get the Mafia tied up killing the cop.

 

So with Marushi's recount this changes things again. This may help us figure out all our options, in least to most likely.

If Mixt and Midnight both are Modkilled, we lynch someone else today, and a townie dies. We'd lose either 3 Town v 1 Mafia, 2 Town v 2 Mafia, 1 Town and 3 Mafia. The only sure town is the one the Mafia kill.

With this we would have 4 people left. Which could either be a 2 v 2, or a 3 v 1. If it's a 2 v 2 we lose, because the town is overrun.

If Mixt isn't Modkilled but Midnight is, we would have 5 people left, depending on her role we would either have a 3 v 2, or a game over.

But if no one is Modkilled we lose 1 Mafia and one Town like normal, leaving us 6 people tomorrow, making it a 4 v 2. That gives the town much better odds.

Additional deaths do not suit us in our current situation, which means for us hopefully Midnight will post. I don't think we'll be relying on Modkills for much longer.

Well in that particular post it was mostly convenience, With all those people in danger of being Modkilled Mish would be left over for us tomorrow, if Ghost was lynched today because Mixt would be Modkilled and all that crap has changed now.

But that doesn't matter anymore because the numbers have changed again. My more analysital reason for getting on Ghost, is similar to what Midnight said. She gives enough help, but she's in a picture spot for a Mafia, able to give the vague impression that she's helpful. Before I thought she was learning and she very well may be, she also agrees with the top posters, other then myself because I believe she sort of decided on two people to piggy back: Midnight, who was big at the beginning, and now you. She doesn't have any autonomous thought, she doesn't act on her own initiative and she's been basically repeating her suspicions about me and failed to provide any new evidence for it, or even new evidence expanded on what has already been established.

This is a really good spot to be when you're Mafia, it makes it harder for people to want to lynch you.

Mish is sort of around but she's ambiguous as well. I suspect Mish, but there's not as much to back it up in my own mind at the moment so I'm not going for it. Ghost just seems like a stronger case.

 

As of right now, if Midnight posts, no one will be modkilled.

 

That's okay, Midnight, I understand being busy.

It's not so much intentional as it's just a recommendation. I have no idea if I'll be able to provide good explanations for suspicious things, though I've tried to be as open as I can be without risking my plans, so that people can see what it is I'm trying to accomplish, and I've also tried to explain what I had been thinking after secrecy is no longer an issue. The reason I encourage people to investigate me is you all have no real way of knowing what my alignment is, and so you'd all have a lot to gain from lynching me if I were Mafia, and also, by investigating my past posts, you're also investigating my investigations, and are able to provide feedback and hold me in check, to tell me if you think I'm right or wrong and why. In a game as cutthroat as Mafia, thoroughly investigating each other is the closest we'll be able to get to solid teamwork.

I look forward to seeing your cases. I'll tell you what I've told everyone else: Don't be afraid to put your opinions out there. Even if they turn out to be wrong, they're still very helpful, and you might have accurate tells in your cases that lead to a big discovery, even if the overall theory is wrong.

But I don't think you're equally likely to be Mafia. You have quite a bit of solid evidence against you even without Judge's testimony, while so far the only thing Judge is guilty of is helping you and me lynch Tale. If Judge is suspect for that, so are we, and adding this to the other evidence people have brought up against you, you're more likely to be Mafia than he is. Regardless of who has what role. This isn't a coin-toss gamble, it's a calculated low-risk choice.

I'd like to point out, just because you asked me for a hypothesis on Judge potentially being Mafia doesn't mean I think he is. As I've stated elsewhere in the thread, I don't think what Judge did or said makes sense from a Mafia standpoint. My speculation was a "yes, it's possible," not an "I think it's likely." I do not think Judge is Mafia and with everything else you've said, plus your refusal to list reads, I'm only more sure that he's not.[DOUBLEPOST=1468080958][/DOUBLEPOST]

Thank you, Calxiyn, this was very helpful.

I think that what Calxiyn says about Ghost holds up from a townie perspective... I could still be wrong, but we'll see. Depending on what Ghost says when she eventually arrives, I will for now assume that my scumteam is still very likely. Mixt, Mish, and Ghost. That's my read for now still.

However, since a lot of people are undecided about Mish and we still have 11 hours before deadline, let's talk about Midnight and Calxiyn for a bit.

The two of them have seemed to be pitted against each other from day 1. They both may well just be townies, but they also either of them might very well be Mafia. I think they'll both post their reads shortly, but in the meantime, what do you all think? Of the two of them, who do you think to be most likely Mafia and why?

 

Most of that post is you agreeing with me agreeing with you, so I'm just going to break that off.

If you can convince me that giving reads will help me or the town I'll do it, but the profiles are all I've got. When I come up Town you guys will lynch Judge, only after that will you be able to act on my reads I post now. But why would you read two days back to a guy who isn't certain of anything. The only way my reads help Town is if I'm Mafia. I could do it as a "See guys? Would Mafia do this?" But that isn't nearly convincing enough for the hole I'm in.

 

Here's the deal: Right now, people alive include Cat, Me, Midnight, and Calxiyn. If all four of us are town, and if one of us dies tonight, that leaves 3 Townies who I believe would be willing to go back and see what your reads were as a dead, allegedly to-be-confirmed Townie. It's not going to be like in a previous game where the Mafia were killing off the talkers one by one and then on the very day that we lynched Townie-Calxiyn, the mafia managed to redirect a vigilante kill and took out Makaze and I at once, leaving the town in the hands of all the quiet ones. No matter what the Mafia do, there will be at least two, possibly three people who will go back and investigate your reads.

That's how if you are town, your reads will be beneficial.

You already have your profile, and you have Judge as your first read. That's a good starting point. What you can do next is find the two players who not only fit your profile, but also appear to be working with Judge, and those are your likely candidates.

 

If I had something meaningful to communicate I would leave it. But I just don't. If you want to give a couple of names and ask me to find anything you may have missed, I can do that. But in analysing everyone at once, all the facts I see are already accounted for. All that's left are opinions and if you guys are reading my opinions in two days looking for leads, god help you.

 

You seem to be under the belief that tomorrow, five people will get online, vote for Judge without saying anything else and then end the day.

It's not gonna be two days before people are looking for Judge's alleged teammates. They'll be looking tomorrow. They'll be asking questions, investigating leads, and, because we already have the handy plan of waiting for modkills as an option, Mafia-Judge will have to post five times, so they'll also be talking to him. The Town will have three whole days in which to try and discover who Mafia-Judge's teammates are. You can bet they're not going to be sitting around twiddling their thumbs.

As long as you maintain that you are town, I'm not going to let this go. Posting reads is the only thing that will make me think you're not lying. For someone who genuinely appeared to be trying to post more analytical and theory-driven posts over Day 2, this sudden reluctance is far too suspicious.

You offer to investigate people I suggest. In that case, what are your opinions on Mish and Ghost?

 

I don't suspect you to be twiddling your thumbs, but you're planning in front of Mafia. If your plans go off cleanly that is a huge red flag. And when the plans go wrong my view of how things are now will be borderline useless.

Anyway I'll post my focused reads after lunch. I think I can handle one more. Does someone other than Marushi want to claim it? (You can claim it if none else wants to. Just trying to diversify interests)

 

...Considering so far, the only 'plans' I've laid in front of the Mafia are ones they can't really help, i.e. 'Mafia have to post five times or be modkilled,' 'All the townies will still talk,' I'm not sure how that would be a red-flag if done cleanly. As for the plans going wrong, I have faith that we'll all pay attention to the clarification Makaze gave: If we try to go for a mod-kill, we have to do it within 4 hours of the deadline or it won't work. Besides, I also have faith that we'll all agree not to lynch someone tomorrow unless we have all come to the consensus (barring the accused, for obvious reasons) that the candidate for lynching is almost certainly Mafia.

Also... claim what? Claim, the cop? I'm confused by what it is you want people that aren't me to try and claim.[DOUBLEPOST=1468085526][/DOUBLEPOST]Or wait, were you saying you can handle analyzing one more suspect as well as Mish and Ghost, and you're asking for opinions on who to analyze? If you are, that makes sense. XD

 

Did I misread something? I thought you were just saying that tomorrow you would be working out who is who and and making plans on how to deal with them. I said it won't be that easy and odds are very high you will be reworking those plans once the Mafia kill comes, and then you replied that your current plans are too vague to be disrupted? Also I fail to see how "Mafia have to post five times or be modkilled" is a plan, that is a game mechanic. And one that I bet you no one is going to invoke. I came the closest to invoking it today and that is because that rule was only made today that it took me a while to notice. Anyone playing to win will escape it now that everyone is aware of it.

And yes, I was asking if anyone else had someone they wanted me to do a read on.

Anyway, time to get started. Note: This will take a while. Like a couple of hours per person a while.

 

I said that tomorrow, if Judge Sunrose is Mafia, everyone will have three days to investigate Judge Sunrose's posts and try to figure out who his potential teammates are, just like we did with you today. I'm really confused as to what other 'plan' of mine you're referring to.

And yes, everyone is now aware of the modkilling chance, and will be working to avoid it, which was exactly my point. Tomorrow, Judge will have to post five times as a confirmed Mafioso in this theory of yours, or he will risk being modkilled, which isn't going to happen, because he knows he'd risk being modkilled.

Okay. This confusion about plans, I'll try to settle.

You said that I'm making my plans in front of the mafia, and if my plans go well it will be a red flag and if they don't, we could lose. So I was all like "What is he talking about? The closest thing I've done to 'laying plans' is saying that everybody has to talk or risk being killed, I don't get it." That was pretty much what I intended to convey. If you were talking about any plans I might make tomorrow, then yes, I will have to be careful not to lay them out in front of the Mafia because they'll know what I'm planning if I say it before hand.

 

So through looking back through Cal's posts, I think what I remembered bugging me was her analysis of why Krowley was lynched. So I've said before I couldn't understand how any town member could be that certain (that early on in the game) that someone else was town without being cop. Al215 wasn't even being suspected beforehand so there wasn't really a motivation towards defending him. I still don't really understand that, unless she was mafia and obviously knew everyone's alignments. I guess she might have thought (if she's mafia) that if when Al215 was killed later and his alignment revealed, she'd have been seen to be defending a townie so people would think she's probably town. Not sure that plan makes sense but just throwing out ideas. On the other hand, I guess it is possible that she thought she knew Al well enough that she'd understand his actions and she fully believed her own analysis of it. I think it also bugged me how much she took from the analysis of the motivations and mindset of the mafia like saying the mafia must have a player who is new to the game or is easily intimidated. I've not found anything she's done today particularly sus though.

Btw how do you guys do it? Build cases with evidence I mean. I'm going through everyone's posts but I don't know what is suspicious. I feel anything I say will just be repeating things that have been said before. This is a serious question, I would love some advice on how to case build. I'm going to continue to explain my previous post, but yeah, um any advice welcome?

 

@Marushi About what you asked earlier about Mishow. I don't suspect her as much as Cal or Midnight because she has really don't anything to catch my eye. While I am on her suspect list and she did vote for me she did give valid reasons for it that I can't really defend because that's how I am in this game, which really kind of sucks.

 

When I've been talking about plans I was referring to this post just before the post I made that we started confusing each other. You didn't mention making plans specifically but generally preparing for the next day. I can see now how "plans" wasn't the best word to use. Also all my talk of days I'm referring to game days. So when I talk about what you guys will do in two days, I don't expect you to hard lynch Judge in less than 24-hours and move on if that is what you thought. It has been well established at this point that a hard lynch is no bueno. I'm saying you'll lynch Judge during the next game day and then you get a choice of lynch the game day after that. But we are talking 4 deaths between now and then and I have no idea what 2 of them are going to be. That alone, even if applicable players are chosen at random, affects the playspace a lot. Add in that the two kills I don't know are Mafia kills -- that should be acting to disrupt things -- and it would be rather surprising if my guesses hold water. Meanwhile today people would almost definitely analyse them with reverse intentions making them act more like red herrings.

 

Haha sorry. I don't know what happened. When I realised that we did actually have another day, my initial thought was that 'Marushi tricked me!' but then, going back through the thread, I found that I was in fact the first one to suggest that we only had a few hours left. I think it's because I had gotten a PM from Makaze yesterday saying that I was in danger of being mod-killed which made me assume that I was running out of time. I don't blame Marushi for seeing this as some mafia tactic (I am dropping balls everywhere this mafia game), but it was a genuine brain fart.

I don't think we are going to get anything from Mixt. He is probably just posting so that he doesn't get mod-killed, blocking us from getting two kills in today.

It stands to reason that we lynch Mixt tonight as he is the only person who we are sure of. At least that gives me some time to do some research and build cases on people who could be his scum team, and be able to to justify my decision in more detail.

 

Thank you, Mixt. I'm sorry I put you through this, you've been a big help.

At this point, I believe a revelation is in order. If you payed close attention (looking at you, Marushi), you might've spotted a few weird things in my posts, such as a few vague statements or answers, like so:

If you look back at my reveal, you'll see that I planted something there that could help explain this, without making it seem like an impromtu deus ex machina or whatever. Observe:

... I was referring to my own words, heh.

Anywho, I already have what I wanted, so here goes nothing.

-------​

I am the cop. Night 0 result showed that Blaine/Cat is Town. So far so good. But, here's the surprise. My other investigation was not fruitless, you see. Night 1 came, I was all set to investigate Krowley, but by a stroke of luck I changed it last-minute to Calxiyn, who came up Town. Now, for the amazing part: I cannot confirm that Mixt is Mafia. I never explicitly stated that he was my target last night. Marushi was, and she's Town as well.

Shocking, ain't it? I ran the numbers, and the odds of this happening (cop + three confirmed reads, all still alive) was approximately 50%. To top it off, my third read was NOT Mafia, and that was the icing on the cake. Think about it for a minute. Which would be better, trying to pick off the Mafia one by one, or singling out the entire team in one fell swoop? Now, I know this is impossible under these circumstances, but with Mixt's "help", we managed to get the next best thing. Let's go through the numbers, one more time.

• 1 Confirmed Cop (Judge)
• 3 Confirmed Townies (Cal, Cat and Marushi)
• 5 Unconfirmed Players (Cstar, Ghost, Midny, Mish and Mixt)

After going through this list a million times over, something occurred to me. What if I could force another read, without using resorting to my Night Action? So I gambled again. There was a 3/5 chance that I would correctly guess Mafia, but I wasn't gambling for that, oh no. I went for the big prize: another Town read. I knew my reveal would have a lot of weight to it, since I REALLY AM the stinking cop, so the subject was very likely to reveal their true colors.

I like to think of it in poker terms. I set myself up to have a three of a kind in hand -- for the sake of the analogy, let's say three Aces and a Jack. As a magician (this is true irl actually), I decided to hide two of those Aces up my sleeve and just bluff, since I knew exactly which cards Mixt could give me. If he gave me a Jack (turned up scum), I'd have a full house, which is not that bad, but try and guess which other hand I got from that draw, one that trumps a full house any day. Now, I'm not saying he's confirmed Town per se, but judging from his responses I can only assume that would be the case, despite some of his mixed signals get it? To honor the spirit of my metaphor, I'm saying I'd go all in on this bet.

tl;dr With the debatable exception of Mixt, out of the last four unconfirmed players (Cstar, Ghost, Midnight and Mish), three are mafia and only one is innocent. That's a 1/4 chance of mislynch, oh my hee hee :B

Checkmate. Wait, wasn't this supposed to be poker...

Spoiler: @Mafia

You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched reads when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fools! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders: "Never go in against a Magician when a game of Mafia is on the line"! Ahahahahahahaha!

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