Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

At the moment, there's nothing I'd like to contest in your posts. I went back and looked at the list of reads in question and you're right, they were for inactivity as opposed to suspicion, so there's that, but it wasn't stated quite as clearly then as you state now. XD I still believe you're likely Mafia, though. As for being afraid of possible exposure by trying to get Cal to admit something, I think you'd be less afraid if you were only agreeing with someone else who had the idea. Namely, me. I think that if you're Mafia, you saw my prodding at Cal as an opportunity to do a little digging yourself, in which case, yes, I think you could still be a Mafioso.

I do have two questions for you:
1. You state that you're beginning to rethink Calxiyn since she's not the Cop. What are some of the ways you think she's suspicio[DOUBLEPOST=1468013760][/DOUBLEPOST]Crap, just a sec...[DOUBLEPOST=1468013790][/DOUBLEPOST]I do have two questions for you:
1. You state that you're beginning to rethink Calxiyn since she's not the Cop. What are some of the ways you think she's suspicious, aside from not being the cop?
2. Who do you think are the Two Players who are most likely to be on the team with Mixt?[DOUBLEPOST=1468014334][/DOUBLEPOST]

Actually, Judge, while you're here, what do you think of my potential Mafia team? Do you agree or disagree with some of my points? If you disagree, please let me know. So far, the only people commenting on my theories are the two accused, and although I'm trying to view their defenses without bias, it's kind of hard because... they're the accused. It'd be really helpful to have a confirmed townie give me feedback so I can maybe look at things with a new perspective.



Total sidenote, but I wonder what the Dead/Observation thread is feeling about all this. XD

 

1. Mixt for obvious reasons...
2. Ghost - has laid low for the majority of the game, wishy-washy posts. Her mafia reads were Cat, Tale & Cal who are also the same players who were the top of other people's top leads. Bandwagoning?
3. Marushi - did not suspect Mixt after the Cat/Tale switch up, instead blamed Judge Sunrose.

I did rethink Cal based on her early post in which she defends Al. It was thought at the time that the only way for her to know for certain (or 90% as she put it) was for her to either be the cop or be mafia. Well, we saw that she isn't the cop, so it stands to reason that she could be mafia. However, after having done a bit of research, the way that Cal has voted and the people she has been suspicious of has made me second-guess myself. I think she is town.

I'm not 100% on any of this, but those are my feelings atm. I've been wrong so far. :|

(one more post to not be modkilled)

 

Okay... One more post... Hmm...

If we leave Mixt to be modkilled and you can't convince everyone else to lynch me, would you vote for Ghost?

 

I would probably prefer to vote for Ghost over you. I'm less convinced about you than her.

If Mixt comes back just before the day ends, he is set to be lynched. So I will ##Vote: Ghost now so that if he doesn't come back, it will be easier to vote up another potential mafia, giving us two kills in one.

 

Thank you, very helpful response.

Anyone else up to vote for Ghost? I only want one, maybe two people TOPS, to bring Ghost up closer or to bring them to a tie. Any takers?

 

Everyone here is asleep and so I'm finally getting to Mafia today.

I just want to remind everyone of our odds quickly. I was reading the front page again, and I saw "MyLo", which and "Lylo" again and I was thinking about this:

If one Mafia is killed tonight, Judge killed at night, Mish is mod killed. If two Mafia are killed we outnumber them. It'd be a 4 v 1.

If Mish is Town, we're in trouble, because then it's 3 to 2 then we have two Mafia. If we lynch correctly tomorrow it'll be a 3 v 1, so eventually it's lynch correctly or die.

If Mish is Mafia we have an extra day. We would also have 4 to 1.

If Mish doesn't die by mod it's a 4 v 2 regardless of her alignment.


The most a Mafia can do is counter claim cop. As risky as that sounds, say Judge is lynched today because of the counter claim, we lose Townie Mish, and a townie is killed tonight, tomorrow. If all of this happens, the Mafia would win.

At the moment it's 5 Town and 3 Mafia. If we lost 3 Town this way we'd be outnumbered and we would get a game over.

3 Town could die tonight.

The situation in which we win is, Mafia is lynched, Judge is going to be die if he's telling the truth, and over the next two days the other Mafia are identified and killed. Mish changes everything, we either lose or we find the last Mafia.

There is no room for error, we need to make sure we lynch Mixt today because they are confirmed. Don't waste time on Ghost. If we get switched like before we will die.[DOUBLEPOST=1468018104][/DOUBLEPOST]Don't try to tie ghost today so that doesn't happen.


(Also Al's probably the only active person in the dead chat and he's been with me all day aka not in there, so I imagine it's dead xD )[DOUBLEPOST=1468018220][/DOUBLEPOST]I want to vote for Mixt now so the Mafia don't get a chance to pull anything but Marushi did say to wait so I'm going to see what she says[DOUBLEPOST=1468019364][/DOUBLEPOST]REGARDLESS I'm doing this as a safety measure ##Vote: Mixt

 

...Who said anything about lynching Judge? If a counter-claimed cop arises, we need only to continue with out plans to kill Mixt to see if Judge is telling the truth, as I've already posted why I don't believe Judge and Mixt can both be Mafia. If Mixt is Mafia, Judge is the Cop, I don't think anybody would lynch Judge, regardless of whether or not someone else comes and claims Cop.

Also, let me clarify my plan: I'm not suggesting we, near the end of the day phase, bring Mish up to a tie and let the timer run out, my plan is to give Mixt the chance to respond and keep discussion going so that we have as much information as possible, and then, near the end of the day, IF Mixt still isn't back, hard-lynch our secondary suspect then and there, leaving no room for Mixt to somehow post four times in succession without having them automerge. We would get a guaranteed modkill of a Mafioso, and would also lynch our most likely candidate.

I suppose that on the slight chance that Judge is a member of the Mafia and is only pretending to be the cop, I can see how this wouldn't play out, but that's only if Judge is secretly Mafia. If we kill Mixt and, say, Mish, things could go one of four ways:
1. Mixt is mafia, Mish is Mafia, Judge is town and dies - We have two Mafioso down and lost one good townie
2. Mixt is Mafia, Mish is unlucky town, Judge is town and dies - We have one Mafioso down and lost two townies, but have lots of information
3. Mixt is town, Mish is Mafia and we just got lucky, Judge is Mafia and another Townie is lynched - we still have one Mafia down and one confirmed, because we would know Judge is Mafia, and we have all sorts of information
4. Mixt is town, Mish is town, Judge is Mafia and another townie is lynched - This is the only scenario in which we are guaranteed a lose.

The way to prevent this is to have another cop come forward- and nobody has counter-claimed this yet. AND if somebody came forward and caused us to go back on my plan, we would still see who's telling the truth when Mixt flipped, and then tomorrow we would only have another confirmed Mafioso.

I'm sorry, but I fail to see how this affects my plan.

So I do fully intend to make sure that Mixt is lynched today. That's why I was so careful as to put him at 3 votes. As for tying Ghost, we have over 24 hours left on the deadline, and I for one am not planning on going anywhere soon. If you must know, I'm trying to put pressure on Ghost.

Here's another thought: What if I'm wrong about Ghost and the Mafia swoop in last second and raise Ghost to a hard lynch? Here's how that would go:

The day ends early.
Ghost dies as a townie.
Mixt is still modkilled.
Judge dies tonight
We have two more confirmed Mafia who swooped in for the kill.

No matter how you look at it, the Mafia don't win by trying to exploit my plan.

 

I didn't realize Mixt was up for being Modkilled, which effected my verison of events in my last post. This does change things slightly, but I'll have to revaluate my numbers tomorrow.

 

Ah, okay. In that case, what are your opinions on my potential scum-team? Do you agree or disagree with my reads about Mish and Ghost?

And, I know this is a stretch, but do you trust me enough to vote for Ghost at the present time?

 

To clarify, the only one I thought was up for a Modkill was Mish. Unless Marushi made a typo I didn't realize Mixt was up for the chopping board as well.

Maybe Makaze can tell us who's completed their quota? Or someone else can make a list for Midnight, Cstar, Mish, Mixt and Ghost

 

With that, Mish was up for a modkill as well until his last post.

 

Before voting for Ghost I would like to see a list of who is in danger of being Modkilled by Mak.

If Mixt isn't in danger we vote for him, obviously. If he's confirmed not going to survive then I'd be alright with voting Ghost unless she is also going to be killed (but she may have posted enough)

If she and Mixt are both being Modkilled, I think Mish is a good second target, however I don't want us to forget about Midnight, who is higher on my list then Mish.

I think it's hard to decide between Cstar and Ghost. Ghost seems to be sort of dipping her feet into things and figuring out how to really play, but Cstar (I think already has) and may be succeeding at what I did my first game where I was Mafia, which was laying so low people assumed I was town, sort of.

As for Mish I would vote Midnight over her, but honestly everything changes depending on what's going down tomorrow.

 

See what I mean? *shrug*

Just got back, will post seriously in a bit.

 

I'm not going to be modkilled Cal.

3 people could die tonight. One mafia, one town, we know that for definite because surely if Judge is lying, the real one would've come forward.

I went through each page and here's my post count per member:

Cat - 9
Marushi - 25
Cal - 8
Mixt - 1
Midnight Star 3
Me - 6
Cstar - 3
Ghost - 5
Judge Sunrose - 4


Yeah, Marushi, I'm female!

 

Oh wow I had no idea that Mid and Cstar were in danger of being modkilled... Well, that throws everything into a loop. I no longer recommend voting for Ghost, let me rethink plans and stuff.

Mixt, I'm sorry. As anyone who's ever played with me before can tell you, I do this to at least one person every game. XD

 

I'm female and my name is Mish! >:L

 

We need Judge to post so they kill him. They may go for another townie if he isn't sure of his death and we can't have that. Cstar and Midnight though is tricky. They both could be Mafia or they could both be town and I'm pretty sure them both dying will **** us over depending on their alignment. I'll try to do another (math-hell) post detailing our chances in each circumstance tomorrow, because this may change by then.

 

OH MY GOSH I'M SO SORRY. XD

It was just a typo, I swear. XD

Yes, man, this changes everything... And I have to go at the worst time... I'll be back maybe in about an hour, and I'll try to keep up with the thread on my phone in the meantime.

 

Oh.

I genuinely did not realize this, I mixed up in my head the discussions we have had this day phase. That is my bad and helps no one and I apologize.

Why are we analyzing the benefits of modkills anyway? It's not helpful in any sense to look at that as a potential turn or strategy. The fact that @Mixt has avoided posting since the confrontation bothers me because it's like he gave up. He didn't attempt a defense.

I think instead of banking on modkills we should be back on analyzing on who would potentially be mafia.

Have addressed at all that @Calxiyn 's faith in Al being townie was something we all thought was a Cop move, but now we know she isn't Cop? Was Cal's alignment confirmed and I missed it? Because yes, while I do agree with people's suspicions of Ghost, I don't necessarily have that feeling that Cal is town anymore. I feel like her actions and talking abut the mafia making stupid moves could potentially make her a third member.

We know about Mixt but my guesses on two are:

1. Ghost
2. Calxiyn
~Potential being Marushi, with what happened with yesterday's vote. I don't have more to bank that on.

If I missed defenses I am sorry, there was a lot to catch up on.

 

I'm afraid that I think we're going to lose Midnight Star. I don't know whether she is town or mafia, but it is 1am here in the UK so I don't think she will be back before the day phase ends.

I also need to leave now as I have work in the morning. Guess I'll have to wait until I wake up to see how this all turns out.

Cstar and Judge still need to post once more to be safe.