Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

Ah, okay, thanks. That does make your post sound much less ambiguous. XD[DOUBLEPOST=1467947774][/DOUBLEPOST]Okay guys... lol, sorry for pushing you all for reads so quickly. XD This is a lot harder than I thought it would be. XD I currently just finished examining page 18 of 25, and I know the posts are just going to keep getting longer and longer the farther I go. XD I have a job interview in the morning, so I have to go to bed now and try to be well-rested, but I'll finish up my research and post my reads tomorrow after the interview. So, I'll try to be more understanding and less demanding when it comes to asking for things like this. XD

BUT YOU STILL NEED TO POST, PEOPLE, SERIOUSLY. XD Just because we know who we're gonna lynch tonight doesn't mean there's nothing to talk about. For heaven's sake. XD

Also, @Judge Sunrose , could you please post what your second read was? We know that you confirmed Cat as a townie and Mixt as a Mafioso, but who was your other read? (Or did you already say and I just missed it?) XD

 

...This had to happen on the days when my activity is greatly restricted. I keep checking the thread on my phone but I'm finding it exceedingly difficult to find time to make posts. Even now this isn't going to be a long one. I'm not sue what the best way to defend myself with this restriction but I've got to find away because we aren't in the best position and I can't really afford to let you guys lynch another townie. (After all to me, I'm the only person that I can confirm as town so I shouldn't just even though right now I'm probably the lest helpful townie.)

Honestly, it's hard to explain yourself as quite a few of your observations were right about how I play, just the reasons (ie I'm mafia) are wrong. I struggle with analytical posts, I struggle to make sense of the tone of someoe's post and if that's suspicious. Plus I'm indecisive as all hell. I know this and I always have been, check previous games. That's why I like logs and I like giving advice on how to play the game because I feel like I can still be helpful to the town even if my analysis is weak. I completely understand that it could be mafiaish but that's how I play. I've done the same previous games, you can check. Also as for the logs being less lacklustre compared to previous times, previous times I was allowed to let other people edit the logs so they weren't done 100% by me. A good around and the core part of them was, but not all of them. This game I am not allowed to allow you guys to edit them or comment directly on them as it would class as communication outside the game. Additionally I'e been a bit lazy and possibly less motivated than I have been previously. The reason I did one for Cat~ but not Cal, was two-fold , one Cal had posted a lot more so I think I looked at her posts and kinda chickened out and also past the whole "cop" suggestion, I was convinced she was going to be killed by mafia so didn't see the point in doing a log for her. I concentrated on doing logs for all the quieter members who were under suspicion at the time.[DOUBLEPOST=1467975107][/DOUBLEPOST]...I made quite a lot of typos in that on rereading of it. Sorry, use your common sense and it shouldn't be to hard to figure out what I meant. (around = amount, yourself = myself, ect.)

 

DAY 3 VOTE COUNT 3:​

Cat~ (1) - Mixt
Mixt (1) - cstar

Not voting (7) - Midnight Star, Cat~, Judge Sunrose, Ghost, Marushi, Calxiyn, Mish​

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to hammer.

Day 3 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 9. There are approximately 2 days and 1 hours until phase end.

Several players are in danger needing prods. Please post.

 

You were Night 0. Or rather, it was Blaine,

I'm afraid that cat is already out of the bag... *points to pile of dead names* I don't see the point of revealing their alignment again, since it's public knowledge at this point.

Hm, looks like Mixt is cornered. He had only posted once this phase when I made my move, which means he has to give out at least four more testimonies before the Day's end. @Makaze can you confirm if the respective penalty for not meeting the five post quota is indeed a modkill, or does it only incur a warning? ( I have to actually watch out for that penalty myself, lol )

And one more thing:

This, ladies and... gent (?), is a common practice better known as 'bussing'.

 

I stated earlier in the game that failing to meet the requirement would result in forced subbing, but at this late in the game I would resort to a modkill.

 

Okay... Judge, thanks for confirming that your other read was a Townie that ended up dead. I had thought that was most likely the case, but just wanted to be sure.

Now then. I just got back from an interview and dropping off more applications, and I have two or three more pages to extensively search through before I sit down and try to figure out what I found. (Right now I'm just going down the page and listing every single suspicious thing everyone did so that I can look at the overall thing and figure potential scum teams from there.)

So everybody, if Mixt doesn't post four more times and ends up being modkilled, we have the chance to lynch someone else as well and get two kills in one day. I recommend that two more people vote for Mixt and sit on those votes just in case he does post more at the end of the day, as we don't want to risk neglecting him in favor of a potential Townie. After those two votes, NOBODY ELSE VOTE FOR MIXT. If he reaches five, it's a hard-lynch and discussion time is over. At this point in the game, I don't think the other to members of the Mafia would expose themselves to save Mixt, because then tomorrow the five other players would easily know who to kill. But this means that IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT TOWNIES DON'T CAUSE A HARD LYNCH BY NOT PAYING ATTENTION.

After we put Mixt up to three votes, we need to continue discussing possible Mafia teammates, and come up with a Secondary Target to lynch tonight if Mixt is going to be modkilled. Until further notice, my money is still on Midnight or Calxiyn (because screw it all, I just wanna be right about something) XD but at this point I don't know which of them is more suspicious, and as I'm sure at least a few of you would put me on the ballot as well, we seriously need active discussion.

POST, EVERYBODY! THROW OUT SOME THEORIES OR SUGGESTIONS OR SOMETHING, COME OOOOOOOOON!

Anyway, I'll go ahead and throw down the second vote for Mixt. After this, I recommend one more vote, and then, in case nobody noticed my earlier warnings, NOBODY ELSE VOTE FOR MIXT AFTER THAT!

##Vote: Mixt

 

I'll go ahead and be the final vote for Mixt right now.

I'll formulate my theories in a bit.

##Vote: Mixt

 

Thank you, Cat.

NOBODY ELSE VOTE FOR MIXT I MEAN IT PAY ATTENTION EVERYBODY.

 

DAY 3 VOTE COUNT 4:​

Mixt (3) - cstar, Marushi, Cat~
Cat~ (1) - Mixt

Not voting (5) - Midnight Star, Judge Sunrose, Ghost, Calxiyn, Mish​

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to hammer.

Day 3 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 9. There are approximately 1 days and 11 hours until phase end.

Several players are in danger needing prods. Please post.

 

Well, after Marushi cleared up the thing about Midnight's logs I would probably place Cal as my most suspicious at the moment. I'll probably set Midnight beneath her right now in those terms.

I'm gonna look back and read some of the older posts so I might actually have something good to post next time c:

 

I'm pretty confident that Judge is who he claims, but for future reference I wouldn't believe that right away. Even earlier as I was watching posts go by I was a little bit suspicious. It would be an extremely risky Mafia move. However there are 8 of us left, 3 Mafia, so 5 Town. A town lynched tonight, and one killed tomorrow could make it easy for the Mafia to win, and so Judge lying about being Cop wouldn't be that much risk after all.

I'm somewhat suspicious but no one has come forward yet, and so until then I'm satisfied.

Now since we know a lot already, let's try and do a quick process of elimantion.

Judge is town
Cat is town
Mixt is Mafia

That's three out of 7. Obviously I'm not including myself in my list.

Now I want to give reads on everyone quickly so we can talk about them and not waste the day just because we know things.

Midnight we've already talked about and I think we should put her next.

Cstar/Ghost is sort of using my strategy from the first time I was Mafia of laying low but still posting and trying not to be suspicious. I think we should grill Cstar her next though. I think Ghost is kind of just testing the waters in a way.

So Midnight, Cstar and Mixt.

Granted this also depends on who dies tonight. This whole entire thing could change otherwise. But I think those are the people to look at right now.

Marushi is always pro-town and optimistic regardless of her role which makes it extemely difficult to pinpoint her, but I'm leaning to believe she's a town member.

 

Given Marushi's behavior, especially in the past day, I'm starting to doubt my previous suspicions of her being mafia.

With that out of the way, I'd place more of my suspicions on Midnight, with cstar and Cal just slightly lower on my list of suspects.

 

I would like to note that while I did say that Midnight had given reasons as to why her logs were so one-sided, I still believe that they could very well be fixed, and still think they probably are.

I also want to go out on a limb and say that my preliminary research still places Midnight as more suspicious than Cal.

This is a good note, Cal. I also took into account that Judge and Cat might be lying, but as it's true that no one else has come forward (admittedly perhaps because they think Judge did this to sniff them out) it's a very low possibility. I think that if Mixt flips Mafia, it's very likely that they are indeed who they claim to be, as I can't think of a reason for them to throw him under the bus like that. The only way I think they would all three be Mafia is if Judge believed that one of them was definitely going to die and decided that it would be best if that member were Mixt. This, to me, seems like an extremely cutthroat move, and also is very unlikely given all the other evidence we have. As for if Judge and Mixt are on the same team and Judge is using Cat's towniness to get rid of Mixt... Again, this is far too cutthroat for my taste, and besides, there's the GAPING plot hole that before Judge's reveal, Cat was the most likely to be lynched, while I had set it up so that if Cat were cleared, Judge probably would be too. So, all in all, I believe that they are who they claim to be, and it will be confirmed once Mixt is killed.

Any questions you have, then, for the people you place your suspicions on?

 

I'm sorry I didn't pop on last night, things were happening at home and I wasn't able to pay my full attention to this game, which is a shame because of the huge bomb that was dropped on us.

But I have had my suspicions of Mixt for the past two days and explained why. I said gut instinct because it was my gut instinct to choose Mixt over Marushi. Because at that instant both could easily have gone together. But when Marushi had asked me to explain my gut instinct I explained it more.

I am aware of what bussing is, but I haven't exactly been close with anyone in any game I played, I get stuck in a "what if I'm being played" loop over and over again and it puts me into an anxiety where I have to hope the town does well.

Also, not to turn the topic away from me, feel free to question me all you wish, but @Mish has seemed to have been forgotten about by everyone here.

 

I knew when I was counting people up I had forgotten someone. I think our sad reality is that Mish may not fill her quota and may end up dying. If she's town that sucks and if she's Mafia it also kind of sucks because then I feel it's unfair. Sort of like when people disconnect from TOS and now it's not even to win on either side. Either way unless she appears I don't see a reason to waste time on her, she may get mod killed

 

Alrighty! We have a lot of information to go by now, and having more confirmed Players makes things much clearer, although of course there is still every possibility that we are wrong. Taking that into account, here are my reads:

Spoiler: Cstar

I believe that Cstar is probably town. There are many reasons I think this. Early in the game, Mixt stated that he believed Mafia would be among the first people to vote for someone, and Cstar corrected him that she thought they'd be more likely to bandwagon in the middle as opposed to instigate. Cstar listed Mixt in an early Mafia read, and Al as town. Cstar also was the first person to vote for Mixt before his alignment was confirmed, and when questioned why she chose Mixt over me, gave a very good answer, clueing us in on a solid tell. All in all, Cstar has disagreed with Mixt and has been suspicious of Mixt since day one - and while this is definitely not conclusive, as a Mafioso could act that way to make sure there's a separation, it's really the whole 'voting for Mixt and pointing out Mixt's motives' thing that really seals the deal for me.

Why would Cstar vote for Mixt before his alignment was revealed, when most everyone else was saying he was suspicious, but thought there were bigger fish to fry? Namely, Cat, Calxiyn, and Me? If Cstar were a Mafioso trying to cover for Mixt, it would make much more sense for them to just agree that Mixt was acting really suspicious, and then vote for one of the more high-profile cases while promising to 'keep an eye on' Mixt. Now, if Cstar had voted for Mixt after someone else had, or after he had been revealed, I would agree that the vote would look suspicious. But instead, Cstar did the first vote, before the reveal.

And when asked why, Cstar pointed out the very good tell of Mixt intentionally bringing the vote to a tie in order to 'help me' be the tiebreaker. Even if Cstar were only bussing a potential Mixt lead, why would she provide such a good reason for it? I don't know about anyone else, but it certainly made me rethink everything I'd previously thought about Mixt. Before Cstar pointed out that tell, Mixt was actually one of the few players I thought were likely to be town. I don't know whether or not I ever would have put everything together eventually, but it definitely made me suspect him. If Cstar were a member of the Mafia bussing Mixt's guilt, I think she would have either come up with some other reason as to why she chose Mixt, or would have just been like "Jeeze Marushi sometimes peeps just have gut reads, get off my back." XD

For those reasons, I believe that Cstar is probably Town, and have struck her from my list of potential Mixt teammates.

Spoiler: Mish

I believe that Mish is likely Mafia. Early in the game, Mixt claims to have 'gotten his facts crossed' when Al calls him out on something. I noticed that and went back to the post in question to see what Mixt's 'crossed facts' entailed. In that post, Mixt is heavily implying blame on Midnight for the day one vote on Heart, and Al calls him out on it, reminding him that it was in fact Mish who voted for Heart so early. I know this isn't going to be as big a tell for you guys at is is for me, since I'm the only one who knows absolutely that Heart is town, but this plays into my overall theory so I must note it. My theory is, Mish was under questioning for her vote on Heart, and Mixt was attempting to subtly shift the blame onto Midnight instead.

At one point, Mish states in no uncertain terms that they believe Tale is Mafia, and is either trying to turn Blaine into a scapegoat, or is working together with Blaine. Seeing as how they have both been confirmed as townies at this point, I find it highly suspicious that Mish thinks that one or both of them HAVE to have been Mafia, and does not include any scenario in which they are both town, especially so early in the game. Also, in another post, Mish is giving reads and lists G-Dog, Burnitup, Krowley, and Ghost as potential members of the Mafia. Three out of four townies (possibly four out of four, but mmmm...) isn't a very good track record (though I'm not one to speak, I suppose) XD Later in the game, Mish lists as possible Mafioso, Cat, me and Judge. Then lists Mixt, Cstar, Ghost and Midnight in the middle, with Cal and Al as town. Again, I'm not one to talk, but this time I can assure you, they read three townies as Mafioso.)

When I posted my plan for Cal to confirm or deny being the Cop, Mish is the only one who agreed with me, and then gave scenarios for why, not listing the possibility that Cal was Vanilla Town in any of them. Then he suggests a few 'cop revealing' plans, and urges Cal to admit it if she is.

Earlier in this day phase, Mish mentions that they expected to die... Why? As far as what I can see, Mish was on a few people's watch lists but not much else, and with everyone expecting Cal to die, I wonder why Mish thought they were in danger as well? Mish then urges the cop to reveal themselves, which, I think, wasn't even being talked about much at the time, and most people were off the subject at the time or had declared they didn't want it done. Mish then suspects Cat and Mixt, but as everyone was saying it, I think it's possible that Mish was hoping to bandwagon a lynch on Cat and hopefully leave behind a trail if Mixt were to be revealed later. And then Mish has not posted since the reveal.

All in all, I believe that Mish is very likely to be a teammate of Mixt's, and if I'm right, it's also further evidence that Cstar is Town, as Cstar and Mish appear to be on each other's radars throughout the game.

I think that Cstar is a very good analyst, and that she noticed something about Mish just like she did about Mixt, even if she wasn't sure exactly what it was.

If I'm right about the above two Players, I would say that the possible Third Man would land likely on Ghost. Buried in lists among other townies or mentioned in passing by Mixt and Mish, Ghost has been the quietest member and yet the one who escaped the most attention, most people focusing on Tale or Cstar as more suspicious than Ghost. After the reveal, Ghost also stated, despite barely even mentioning Mixt in the past, that she had actually found Mixt to be suspicious and had been building a case on him but didn't need it any more. If you ask me, that is far more suspicious of bussing than what Cstar did.

As for why I picked Ghost over Midnight or Calxiyn, again, it falls into if I'm right about Mish. While at times both Mixt and Mish appear to be on friendly terms with Midnight or Calxiyn, agreeing with what they say and reading them as possible townies or at least middle-ground players in most lists (if you act like you agree with a high-profile townie, they're more likely to agree with you and focus on others) at other times they appear to be pushing to get Mid or Cal under further suspicion. And if you look at Midnight and Cal themselves, it's the same thing. Sometimes they agree with Mish and Mixt, but sometimes they really call them out on important stuff. Stuff that a Mafioso isn't likely to point out. So it's my opinion that, although there is always a possibility that Cal or Mid is the Third Man, I think it's very unlikely.

In my opinion, the scum team is probably:
Mixt
Mish
Ghost

However, I have every capability of being so, so wrong. XD Because either I'm dead wrong now or I've been dead wrong about everything I've said before now. So please, please, build cases too! If you think I'm right, prove it to yourself and help me prove it to everyone else. If you think I'm wrong, tell me why so I can try to change my tune! I might just be dead wrong again, peeps. XD Give me some feedback and help here. XD

Also, if Mixt and Mish don't show up, what do you all suggest we do? I agree that if they're both modkilled Mafia, it would kind of end the game on a bit of a sour mood... Any thoughts?[DOUBLEPOST=1468004232][/DOUBLEPOST]Oh, sorry, I meant to show you guys my log so you could see my line of reasoning a bit better. XD

 

Okay, going back through the thread I don't think both Midnight and Cal are mafia, I'm not sure if anyone has said this already so don't get mad at me. To me it looks like the two of them have voiced suspicion of each other too many times for it to just be distraction so they aren't suspected. Although neither have voted for each other yet I don't see that as a sign they are both mafia.

Spoiler: Cstar

You said something about potentially catching Mixt as mafia after you quoted me before Judge posted, So I planned on looking back at his posts and addressing suspicions on him, but then judge already posted by then and confirmed him.

Anyway, I have to go out right now and I'm not sure when I'll be back today, maybe later this evening.

[DOUBLEPOST=1468006160][/DOUBLEPOST] I have no idea why that is in a spoiler that says cstar, my bad

 

Okay, then. So, what do you think about Mish being a member of the Mafia?

 

I'm here don't modkill meee. Sorry, I was out all last night and most of today. I would have stated in advance but I thought I would've had time to get online on my phone.

So I'm gonna address Marushi's suspicion first.

The first point you make is about Mixt getting his 'facts crossed'. I don't have much to say about this other than I think he focused on Midnight there because he was answering a post by Blaine, who was asking Midnight why she had voted for KH530. So that could have been the reason or well.. he could have legit got his facts crossed. This discussion happened after I had given a reason for voting for KH530, so no, I wasn't under questioning. Not much of a defense there I know, but this isn't much of a mafia tell imo.

"At one point, Mish states in no uncertain terms that they believe Tale is Mafia"

Well, here is the post in question:

It was in response to what I believed to be mafia-esque behaviour as you can see. This was early on in the game when there wasn't much to go on. Yes, I was a bit 'heavy-handed' in the way that I was flinging accusations at him here.

However, later on in the game, I did defend Tale, so I don't think this reasoning holds up. By defend, I mean that I didn't go along with what Judge was saying when he was accusing him. His weak and unfounded accusations are what lead me to list Judge high up on my mafia reads list.

"Also, in another post, Mish is giving reads and lists G-Dog, Burnitup, Krowley, and Ghost as potential members of the Mafia."

Nope, I said they had contributed the least, not that I suspected them of being mafia.

"Later in the game, Mish lists as possible Mafioso, Cat, me and Judge. Then lists Mixt, Cstar, Ghost and Midnight in the middle, with Cal and Al as town. Again, I'm not one to talk, but this time I can assure you, they read three townies as Mafioso."

yea, I kinda dropped the ball re: Cat and Judge.. and I am starting to rethink Cal. It's just that I was convinced that she was the cop for a while.

In regards to the cop-revealing stuff: like I said, I was convinced that Cal was the cop. I was sure that the mafia were aware of this and that they would kill her. So I didn't want her to die in vain, i.e. without us knowing for sure what she had found out. I thought I might die because I haven't exactly been a high priority to other town players and many have said that they are leaning towards town for me.

I don't think that the whole cop-revealing idea is a mafia tell. If I were mafia, wouldn't I be afraid of being exposed? Besides, the cop has revealed himself, for better or for worse, so I guess it wasn't such a terrible idea? We are better off now that we know about Cat and Mixt.


That's the end of my defense for now. If anyone else would like to posit anything to me, I would be happy to try to counter it, or if Marushi would like to follow up with anything..

I think this is only my 3rd post for this day phase, so I need to be able to reply to a couple more posts to meet the quota and I also need to go to bed in 3 hours tops.. so get posting!

 

I will be quick then. In light of these new pieces of info, who would you put in your hypothetical mafia team?

Also, pardon me, I know this has very little to do with the game, but would you identify yourself as a "she"? I ask this because, if I'm not mistaken, more than one player (myself excluded) has been referring to you as either "him" or "they".