Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

...um is Cal being a vanilla townie not an option in this?

And for what you said, I don't think it's worth he revealing because it's not like we were planning on lynching Cal or Al anyway. This doesn't really narrow our pool very much, while not revealing she has a chance of surviving. Just having a chance at one extra read surely makes it worth it.

I still don't actually think she is the cop.

 

Alright, so while I'm typing up all of my cases in a different doc and will paste them here later, how about this:

Just to keep conversation moving along, Midnight, let's assume that Cal is NOT the cop, and just stop talking about the cop altogether for now. I do not believe she is the cop, and you do not believe she is the cop. Now then. Why do you suppose she so vehemently defended Al on such a small amount of highly circumstantial evidence, and why do you suppose she later used that same evidence to target you, and later, me? From the standpoint of a Vanilla Town, what could she possibly have been trying to gain by this? Feel free to speculate.

 

That I'm not sure about. It does seem a very bold and risky thing to do, especially since Al had not been previously suspected. If she is town and genuinely went through that reasoning (maybe with a bit of bias towards Al because they are a couple), she was taking a big risk and she's got to know that she might be defending mafia. I can't remember who said it (maybe Mish) but someone said that due to that post it is highly doubtful that both of them are mafia. I don't think Cal is that stupid to link them so clearly if they are. I think Cal could be mafia and protecting Al who she obviously knows is town. Alternatively she could genuinely be town and be that convinced by her logic but I do not believe her explanation proved in anyway that Al was town so she could be effectively be protecting him regardless of if he's town or mafia. I don't really know what she could gain by this and defending someone preemtively could be a mafia thing. Basically if she survives the night, I am highly suspicious of her. I don't want to lynch her though if mafia will do it for us. This isn't a great analysis and I'm sure Cal has done a few more things that I remember being a bit unsettled by but I'm short on time now and don't have time to find them.

Also so I was looking through the old mafia threads to try and help me with this one. In the Mr. E's one where you were mafia, I found that your posts were pretty much as pro-town as you currently are. I mean, I know this doesn't mean you are mafia as if you are town, you would obviously still be pro-town and I have nothing at all to say you are actually mafia. However, it does mean that I am not taking your pro-townness as a good sign that you are town because I think you'd also play this way as mafia. You are taking the spotlight away from yourself by pointing it at other people I guess. Your cop talk and wanting the cop to reveal themselves is also a bit sus but I can understand your reasoning there (even though I disagree). I'm not really certain about anything right now.

 

Thank you, that was insightful and well put together.

As for me, you're right to suspect me. Acting pro-town doesn't mean I am pro-town, and I did try to play very pro-town as a Mafioso last game. Also, kudos to you for researching previous games as well as this one. lol, I'm too lazy for that, even though I have had a couple questions come up about other players and their similarity to older games. XD

But once again I am painted to be asking the Cop to reveal themselves. So once again, I reiterate: I DO NOT WANT THE COP TO REVEAL THEMSELVES. I only want Calxiyn to admit or deny being the cop, or even to refuse comment. By the way, speaking of Calxiyn, I understand she is taking a flight today, and it's a very long one. Does anyone know if she believes she will be back before the deadline at all?[DOUBLEPOST=1467748190][/DOUBLEPOST]If anyone would like to add anything before I post my super long post? I really don't want to double post my biggest thing and I'm almost done. XD

 

Thank you~

You do the same as me and compliment the person who accuses you xD I've done that a few times too.

I'm not sure I want Cal to deny it as that may narrow down the list of people the cop could be for mafia. Then again she could lie and even if she's not, the mafia might not believe her regardless.

Speaking of people being back before the deadline, has Cat~ been around at all since people started to accuse her? According to my activity log, she hasn't even cleared the minimum post requirement for today. I would really like her to appear and defend herself a little. Also I'd like to hear who she is finding sus, so we have something to work with after we know her role.

We don't have long until deadline, where is everyone??

 

So here are my thoughts. I do not believe Calxiyn is going to die during the night phase. If she does, I will be very surprised. Right now, unless I am very very wrong about her, (which is always a possibility, I’ll admit), then she is Mafia and will therefore not be killed by them. She is currently Fifth on my list of people I think the Mafia might target, and she only has that slot on the offchance that I am wrong and she is town.

Now then, onto my actual cases. I have several different people that I suspect as Mafia, moreso than only my top three. I’m including all of them because 1: I am extremely capable of being wrong. I recognize that. Just because I believe Cal to be Mafia doesn’t mean that she most definitely is, and if she is not and I am wrong, I want to have other cases already being built. 2: Although certain Mafia-Teams are unlikely, it doesn’t mean they are impossible. I want to judge each player by their own merit and by their possible connections to others. If three highly suspicious Players can be tried as a Mafia by themselves and they all fit together as a group, that is a basis for a possible team.

I know that it’s been suggested that I drop Calxiyn’s case completely, but as I was already almost done building it here when the suggestion was made, I won’t. Besides, if I am the one who dies during the night phase, I don’t want to have been shushed on what I have to say and then ignored later. So, @Calxiyn .

Spoiler

Firstly, I believe that Calxiyn is Mafia for the following reasons:

• Her stance has been subtly ruthless and aggressive since day 1, and only came to a head on day 2.
  
  
• She has been out for Midnight and, to a lesser extent, Mish since early in the game, which is a tell: a member of the Mafia would try to remove the threat of Midnight by casting enough doubt on her that they could get the town to kill her for them.
  
  
• Her profile analyses so far in the game have been decidedly grouped; she often examines people in pairs, using the alleged guilt or innocence of one as conclusive proof of the guilt or innocence of the other.
  
  
• Her bigger picture theories are far-fetched and rely on so many variables that they will fall apart if one aspect is disproven, and the only way I can make sense of them is if they are really an elaborate plot that went awry.
  
  
• She seems defensive and quick to attack when questioned, both by Midnight and later by me. It is true that she has pointed fingers at Midnight off and on throughout the game, but she did not question Heart at all until her first post after I took over, and her case against Heart is extremely circumstantial.
  
  
• After I had questioned her, she fell dead silent and did not post again for Sixteen hours, despite being prodded quite a few times, being active and online off and on, and was spotted viewing the thread frequently. Finally, she showed up for one post right before taking off again for a long flight. It’s possible she realized she was in danger of giving something away, and decided to stop posting to avoid compromising her teammates, and it seems like it was done intentionally.
  
  
• Even though she is most likely not the Cop, she allowed everyone to believe she is in order to keep herself alive- this is not a hard tell and it has not been proven correct, but if she is NOT the cop, her allowance that we continue to believe it is Self-serving at best, and highly suspicious at the worst. Especially if you take into account that by allowing the Cop-speculation to continue, she might be trying to have others sniff the cop out for her, or she might even be trying to trick the cop into accidentally revealing themselves in an effort to oust her.

All of this taken into account, I am almost sure that Calxiyn is Mafia.

If she is, I believe that Midnight Star and possibly Mish at the very least are probably town, while I would say likely scum-buddies could be, in order of most likely first: Cat, Tale, Cstar, Al, and Mixt.

‘But wait,’ you might be saying. ‘Why is Al on the list? After she defended him so vehemently, surely they can't both be Mafia! That would be too risky a move!’

And normally I would agree with you. But if Calxiyn is a Mafioso, it means that her entire theory about Krowley and the new Mafia and their lynch-bait was planned. This, to me, is the only reasonable explanation of her actions that makes sense out of everything that was done, and the timing is important in that as well. Her erratic behavior did not begin until Day 2- which could be a sign that during the night chat, when the Mafioso are able to talk to each other for the first time and come up with a plan, she was possibly involved in a risky scheme to off Krowley before he could continue analysing, and use his last post as evidence to clear herself and/or Al. We’ve already observed that she tends to investigate people in pairs, so it is possible that Al was just there, and she overdid her bid for his innocence in order to clear herself. She out and out stated this in one post, saying that perhaps the reason she was so enthusiastic about defending Al was because she knew that if she could convince people of his innocence, her theory about being lynch-bait would also be proven, and would therefore mean she was town as well.

But my point is, if we believe this to be a plan, and knowing the great risk involved, we can assume that the Mafioso this time around are great risk-takers. And if this is the case, there is a chance, however unlikely, that Al is a Mafioso with Cal and an unnamed third member, and the two of them were so forcibly contrasted so that if one was revealed, the other would be safe. This, however, is a very very unstable theory. I do not think that Al is a member of the Mafia at present, I only think that he should not be totally disregarded, no matter how Cal eventually flips.

You might have noticed that Cat is also on the list, which contradicts earlier when I said I do not believe they are on the same team. However, upon further investigation, I believe that again, there is a chance that they are. In fact, this chance is even more likely than the Al theory, although it is still by far uncertain itself. This theory is that Cat and Calxiyn, both knowing the other is Mafia, have ‘butted heads’ a few times and even could have voted for each other, so that if one is revealed the other will be confirmed Town. This is a risky move, but if the Mafia are comprised of risky players, we could have a bit of a team here.

As for Tale, Cstar, and Mixt, those are mainly because the first three have all been too quiet for my liking. Of the quiet ones, Tale is the most suspicious because he is the most unaligned player in the game, and because Calxiyn listed him as a player who might make her nervous, before he began to be called out for not posting anything of substance. Why would a quiet, non-threatening player be listed as an investigator who could potentially make Cal sweat? I think she might be a Mafioso burying his name in other lists so that he won’t appear to be forgotten, like Cstar seems to be. In fact, Cal has repeatedly mentioned Tale in passing, attributing more to him than he seems to have given. He is therefore the most suspicious one there.

As for Mixt, he is on there because he is a Player she read as possible Mafia a couple of times without giving much evidence for it, which again, could be her burying a co-conspirator in a list of names to give them an alibi later.

And actually, now that I think about it, there is a very slight chance that Cal and Midnight are on the same team. Although they appear to butt heads very often, and have done so since early day 1, there is still a slight possibility that they are so-conspirators. This, however, seems very unlikely to me.

Now then, I would be remiss if I didn’t theorize about a possibility in which she is town.

There is a possibility that Cal is town. If she is so, it’s possible that she was simply very overzealous in her reads, and prone to major tunnel-vision, as well as applying faulty logic to circumstantial evidence. She might be the cop, she might not. I do not believe that she is the cop, regardless of whether or not she is town. If she is the cop, then she is really good at leaving behind clues that could potentially throw Mafia off her trail. If she is Town, her reads will definitely be worth deep investigation, as she had a lot of ideas and theories, and just because she took a rather wild approach does not mean that everything she said is wrong. She might have stumbled onto something big. If she is the cop, we can safely assume that Al is innocent, if nothing else.

If you are interested in seeing proof of these allegations, I took the liberty of creating an Activity log for Cal, since Midnight has been busy lately and has focused more on the quieter members.

Now onto my second highest Mafioso suspect: @Cat~

Spoiler

In order to talk about Cat, I also need to talk about Blaine.

• Blaine was aggressive, even a little rude sometimes, and had a very self-serving, devil-may-care attitude, that made him seem at the very least, bad for town, even if he wasn’t Mafia. This led to him being on the receiving end of a lot of people’s suspicions, but several others say this was just in keeping with his norm. Not so much a tell as merely suspicious behavior.
  
  
• At times, Blaine showed an ease and even maybe an alliance with Burnitup, who reciprocated. When Burnitup was called into question, Blaine openly mocked his accuser, while at a different point in the thread, Burnitup claimed that he was ‘more than sure’ Blaine was town. Neither of them provided any evidence alongside these sentiments, but the connection is still there. Again, not a hard tell, but suspicious.

HOWEVER. Then, both Blaine AND Burnitup were replaced, and the alleged buddying seems to stop there. Cat, however, stepped into the role and proceeded to make several very suspicious comments of her own. You need only to look at Midnight’s log of Cat’s activities and you’ll see this is true.

• Most of Cat’s posts have contained hints of suggestive reasoning and oddly self-serving statements. What seems like damage control when disagreeing with Blaine’s hypothesis on Mafia members agreeing with each other, might be covering for the fact that Blaine and Burnitup appeared to do so. When agreeing to give Krowley’s potential sub a chance, reiterates that it’s fair to judge a person on their own actions, not those of a previous player in their slot, etc.
  
  
• Did want to vote for a no-lynch. This might just be keeping to their norm, I don’t remember Cat’s stance on lynching in the past, so this is not a hard tell. But except in extreme cases, of which, I have not yet seen in any Mafia game, I do not believe that a no-lynch is a good idea, and it rarely seems helpful to the town at all.
  
  
• Made the mistake of role-speccing about Cal. As someone who has played this game multiple times and has, unless I’m mistaken, been the cop (or a similar role) before, she really should know better than that. She admitted she shouldn’t have, but defended that the odds were low that she was right anyway.
  
  
• Again, as someone who has played this game multiple times before, I expected a lot more from Cat by way of speculation and hypotheses. It’s true that there has been some, but there hasn’t been nearly as much as I was hoping for, and this alone makes me suspicious. Perhaps Cat is intentionally seconding popular opinions and providing middle-ground analyses in order to avoid setting off any people who might still be suspicious of Blaine.
  
  
• And finally, on top of everything else, Cat disappeared over 42 hours ago, and hasn’t shown up since. This isn’t a tell, so much as it is just really anti-town.

If Cat is a Mafioso, possible teammates include Judge, Midnight, Mish, and Tale. Possibly Calxiyn (see her case) and possibly Al. Tale might possibly be switched out for Mixt, Cstar, or Ghost.

Judge solely because of the alleged connection of Burnitup and Blaine. Midnight and Mish because although the two of them have disagreed with Cat and corrected her theories at times, there’s altogether a relative ease and friendliness between them, which just seems odd in a game that seems as emotionally charged as this one does. Tale because Cat also seems to bury Tale in a couple of lists here and there, though this could just be because Tale is just… there.

But of course, Cat could possibly be town. It’s possible that the connection between Burnitup and Blaine wasn’t really a connection at all; neither of them seemed to be paying that much attention, perhaps they just had gut reads that the other was innocent and voiced them. As for Cat, it’s justifiable, even if it’s not very helpful, for her to phrase her statements in a way that keeps herself free from suspicion, and beyond that, I would assume that she is extremely busy, so her long absence where she was absent is different than Cal’s absence, where she was viewing the thread regularly and just didn’t respond.

Now onto @Midnight Star

Spoiler

Midnight seems to be suspected by quite a few people, but hasn’t really come under much questioning, save by Calxiyn, whose case was weak and altogether seemed more defensive than anything else. Despite Calxiyn’s weak case, I also find Midnight to be very suspicious, and hopefully a bulleted list will help me figure it out as well as anyone reading this.

• Midnight just seems to be mid-ground; she doesn’t seem to have a lot of opinions, and when pressed for some, that’s all she can say. She’s ‘not sure,’ ‘can’t decide,’ and ‘opinions are hard.’ When she does give opinions, it’s after much prodding, and all she does is repeat theories other people have said.
  
  
• Her Activity Log, while helpful, could be a smoke screen. She’s too busy on the activity log to form theories, but at the same time, her log has only included the quiet members who haven’t said much. In addition, it’s possible for her to intentionally word things a certain way in order to get her own ideas across. In summation: She could be hiding behind hard data to appear helpful without actually putting herself or her colleagues in a dangerous position. I remember Jiku Neon doing something similar in one of the earlier games.
  
  
• She does appear to be defensive sometimes, especially when questioned, but this isn’t a hard tell either.
  
  
• And she seems to be very protective of the Cop’s role. Which, makes sense as a town move, but is held in such zeal as to make me suspicious. In one of my previous games, as a Mafioso, I intentionally and zealously warned the other Players to be careful of a special role to appear more Pro-Town. It was not beneficial for the Town to risk lynching that role, and I used that to appear like I had their best interests at heart. Midnight might be doing something like that here.

So… There’s really not as much there, and out of my top three, (being Calxiyn, Cat, and Midnight) I would say Midnight is the most likely of the three to be town. Her actions, while suspicious and indicative of Mafia behavior, can also be explained as busy and maybe a touch defensive Townie.

Possible teammates: At this point, Midnight could potentially be teamed with nearly anyone. The only solid read I can get from her is that I don’t think it likely for her to be on the same team as Cal.

Now then, onto other people, that I don’t necessarily have cases for.

I believe that Tale is likely to be Mafia, for reasons that have already been mentioned several times throughout the dayphase. And I believe that Tale easily fits into every scumteam people have built, even Calxiyn’s scumteam. She theorized that the Mafia included Heart/me, someone who knows that Krowley was skilled, and someone new to being Mafia who thought Krowley was skilled and panicked. Tale has played games with Krowley before, I think, and I also don’t think Tale has been Mafia before. He could fit either role. In terms of suspicious activity, Tale is suspicious in his silence, but that is not conclusive, and he could just be a Townie, that perhaps has been brought under scrutiny as a scapegoat to waste Town time and maybe eventually lead to a mislynch.

Note: Cstar and Ghost also are easily described the same way as Tale, but have been brought under less scrutiny, which doesn’t make them any more or less innocent than Tale.

Mish, Mixt, and Judge Rose are suspicious as well, but they are suspicious because they are more middle-of-the-ground players, posting informative posts, but not too many of them. They say and do suspicious things, but I don’t find them overall giving a lot of tells, and they haven’t struck me as being overly town or overly Mafia, even if they might slightly lean one way or the other. So far, for me, the biggest indications of their guilt lies in their association with other, more suspicious Players. One of these players may very well be a Third Member, but there’s also the chance that all three are Town.

And Al… While Al seems to be at the center of the day’s activity, he himself doesn’t read much as town or Mafia to me, despite his long posts. Perhaps that is because I tend to agree with what he has to say, and so it clouds my ability to read him as Mafia. It’s hard for me to find someone suspicious when the majority of what they post is well thought out, insightful, and mostly containing sentiments I agree with. XD But he should not be discounted either. Just because I haven’t found enough to start building a case on him doesn’t mean he’s not guilty.

And there are my opinions about every player in the game. I haven’t cleared anybody as town and I think everybody has the potential to be Mafia. But hopefully this helps clear up some of why I think different people are guilty and what Players I think they might be on teams with.

Now then... Please let my coding be right, please let my coding be right, please let my coding be right! XD[DOUBLEPOST=1467750117][/DOUBLEPOST]

Heehee, well, just because we might be enemies doesn't mean we can't be polite to each other. People are people, no matter their alignment. ;)

And Cat has not posted on this thread in around 44ish hours at this point, I believe. I haven't checked to see if this is a forum-wide thing or just this thread, perhaps Cat is busy.

As for the deadline, we now have 6 hours and 40 minutes left, and votes have not changed since the last count.

Except, now they will, because I want to officially ##Unvote: Ghost.

I'm not even sure why I'm still sitting on that vote, unless I just kept forgetting to change it. XD[DOUBLEPOST=1467750179][/DOUBLEPOST]Oops, meant to link to Makaze's handy Countdown.[DOUBLEPOST=1467753290][/DOUBLEPOST]We now have five hours and forty minutes left. XD We're currently at a place where Cat has the most votes, but that could still change. Cat is going to be tonight's lynchee, unless anyone decides they can maybe try and swing a change last-minute. Everybody okay with this?

 

I'm not even out of the airport yet, but I thought I would reply regardless.

All of the stuff you're saying make me Mafia, I've already given answers for, such as my suspicion of Midnight, the fact I didn't see that post Heart made which changed my entire post, which at first was only about Cat etc, so I don't see the need to go over it again.

Grouping in pairs is an effective strategy. If you see two people who are effectively going against each other, dangerously so, in the way that they'd be lynching their Mafiaoso, then there's a GOOD chance. It isn't perfect. If they think there's no chance they may have no choice. That's why I asked you and @. : tale : . To put in your votes to hammer Cat tonight. Her fate is pretty much sealed, so it would be safe if you were both Mafia, however it's the reluctance and tones in your posts today and tomorrow that'll matter, if she's Mafia you're going to start to sweat.

None of the aspects to my theories have been "disproven" yet. Not in their entirety. At the end of the game we'll see what really went down, but until then it's your theory of what happened, mine, Judges', Tale's, everyone's.

There's a difference between playing offense and defensively, and doing so in panic. This game is about attack and defense, but it's the tone in which these posts are delivered which is important. Going back to Midnight, I talked about the tone in which I found her post to be. It had nothing to do with defending herself or rebutting my point, because that's simply part of the game. But words that are used, how things come across when they are read, that can tell you a lot


Now about the Cop: I'm not confirming anything because as many different people have said, but admitting that you are not the cop you are having the Mafia figure out who is. I'm still not going to say if I am or not, because if the Mafia is convinced it's me and I am not that gives the cop more time. And if they kill me that gives the cop an extra night. The more you're speaking about the cop the more you put the cop at risk, and maybe that can be added to the reasons why you are Mafia.

Now about you guys saying that I would do it even though it's risky. I mean, it's possible, everything is a possibility, however, for those who have played Mafia with me or otherwise, you know I'm not stupid. Because at the end of the day saying "Well maybe it's risky but she would do it" is almost the same as "Maybe it's stupid but maybe you would do it"

Here's what I would do if I REALLY wanted to pull of that plan as Mafia: I would have waited until someone said something about Al first, then done my digging. At least then it would be called for, it would blend in. It would look natural, even. Or I wouldn't say it at all. Cat is the bigger fish today. I can say all these things about Blaines attitude and try to convince that wasn't based off of his natural personality but because he was Mafia, and most of you would and have agreed.

But the thing is though Marushi, is that you're going as overboard on your rundown of me as I did with Krowley/Al etc. And yes I can at the very least admit that much. I wanted to try and porpelle us somewhere today, and also, maybe a tiny part of me was trying too hard to be smart, my only crime. So now I'm telling you this because you are doing the exact same thing, and when I am killed or lynched and my role is found out you will have zero credibility anymore, at least that's what I foresee, especially with some of the accusations I have against you. Speaking of that if I am town you say my investigation should be reexamined, but you're a prime suspect so does that include you? And if the town loses faith in you that would be very unfortunate if you're actually town, which I don't think you are.

I think you're trying too hard to get me lynched or kill like you think I tried to hard.
I think that if you changed your own theory on me, to it being about you, it would be extremely similar. Overzealous, trying too hard, too risky etc etc. And to make sure everyone understands what I mean by this, I'll make an example:

"Marushi's bigger picture theory on Calxiyn are far-fetched and rely on so many variables that they will fall apart if one aspect is disproven."

This is what I mean by a mirror, the same could be and maybe will be said about your analysis on me. It's like you're almost purposefully trying to make yourself as "erratic" as I was on Krowley about Me. I think this is important because you considered my exact behavior to be suspect and Mafia-like. Whether it's intentional or if it's just that we have a similar way of playing I have no idea lol


And on a side note.

I think that using my inactivity in order to try and hammer your point is kind of unnessicary. Everyone knows why I didn't post already lol. Yesterday I was sending out query letters, I was with my friend Hunter all day and then with my family until I left, and it's very rude to do other things with guests over.

^^ that is an example of a harsh, more questionable tone that I thought midnight had. Not just defensive, not offensive, simply really ticked lol. That's extremely unnessicary.

 

Alright. Your case on Heart is as follows:

• You believe that the fact that Krowley died as opposed to someone else is conclusive proof that the Mafia are new and inexperienced.
• Krowley said he thought you and Al we suspicious, and earlier in the day, Heart had said the same thing.
• Heart is new and inexperienced.

Your case on me as a replacement:

• I am erratic
• I am defensive
• I am trying to sniff out the cop.

Am I missing anything there? I did not say that your theory is disproven, I said your theory would be disproven if a single element was. It is all built on circumstance. If Krowley was not killed in order to frame you, which, cannot be proven until the end of the game, than we have no idea how new or experienced the Mafioso are. If Heart said she found you and Al suspicious because she found you suspicious and wasn't trying to frame you by saying the same thing as Krowley and then killing him, then your case against her is unfounded. And if your case against Heart is unfounded, then you voting for me in the same post wherein you welcome me to the game is based on circumstantial evidence, and as you repeatedly state that defense is important to this game, should excuse me a certain amount of defense if indeed I was defensive.

Grouping pairs is a good strategy, to see how they react to each other and to people around them. But you take it a step farther: You say "If Person A is town, Person B must also therefore be town." and vice versa. Sometimes, a member of the Mafia will intentionally befriend a townie so that they will be grouped together, and sometimes, a member of the Mafia will take one Townie and one Mafioso and intentionally group them together so that they can clear them both, or so that if the Mafioso is revealed, there will be a trial linking him to the hunted Townie. Investigating more than one person is good. Repeatedly using the alleged innocence or guilt of one as conclusive proof of the guilt or innocence of another is suspicious and is based on unsound logic.

About putting in votes to hammer Cat, I just have to ask, why is it necessary to go for a hard lynch? Cat's fate is sealed, unless someone intends to jump from her vote and land on another, or if the three who have yet to vote suddenly show up and vote someone else, which would be very very suspicious at this point in the game. Shouldn't we be waiting for as much time for talk as possible, and avoid hard-lynching Cat?

I know you're not stupid, believe me, I think you are very smart and have good ideas, which is why this entire thing has me so very baffled, and which is why I included a clause in which you are town and this whole thing is a bizarre and overblown misunderstanding. However, you are the person I am most suspicious of, and until I can think of some other explanation for all your actions, you being Mafia is the one that makes the most sense to me.

And yes, if you are town and we look at your old cases, it should include me. Nobody should treat me as if I am confirmed town unless it is actually confirmed. There is no possible way anyone can know for certain that I am town, unless they are Mafia, and unless the Cop investigates me. (On that note, Nameless Cop, DO NOT RESPOND TO ME, I AM NOT TRYING TO SEEK YOU OUT. I would strongly advise you not to investigate Cal or me tonight, as it is very likely that at least one of us will die, and thus your investigation would end up moot in the morning. And yes, I realize that this may only further people's suspicion on me. Don't worry, I know that and am prepared to accept the consequences of it.)

It is indeed true that my case on you relies on many variables. That's why I've tried to build cases on more than one person, and I've tried to theorize on possible groupings and different thoughts. Even if I am town, I am fallible. This is important, everybody. Don't trust ANYONE, not even me or someone else you think is town. Even if you know someone is town, you can trust their intent without trusting their judgement. We are all running blindly here, just because someone is proven town doesn't mean they are right. Don't trust me. Don't trust me at all. Look at what I have to say, hold it up against your own evidence, and find out for yourself if you think I'm right. Do not just accept my word, even after I'm inevitably proven town later.

As for your absence, I did not know you were sending letters or spending time with family yesterday. And in fact, I did not even realize you had a trip planned until I was halfway through writing my case against you. Since you had admitted you didn't celebrate the 4th of July, not being American, I had wrongly assumed it was just another Monday for you. Today, I knew that you were on a trip, so that was explained. But at the time of my posting, all I knew about yesterday was that I saw you on the thread very frequently, and I tagged you and tried to initiate further discussion with you several times and was ignored. If this was because you were trying to keep up with the thread but were unable to post due to prior commitments I understand, but I did not know it at the time, and I apologize. Spending time with friends and family is far more important than a forum game, so I will admit that point is less suspicious than I had at first believed.

And perhaps I wasn't clear when I mentioned your case against Midnight: As far as I can see, the most suspicious thing you accused her of doing was sounding too defensive, and to the point of view of an outsider (I drew this conclusion before I was admitted into the game, though I'll understand if you find it hard to believe) was that Midnight didn't seem nearly as defensive as you did. In fact, for the entirety of the game, you have seemed decidedly more defensive than the other Players.

I hope that answers your questions satisfactorily. If not, feel free to cross-examine me in what little time we have left.

We're currently sitting at 4 Hours and 45 Minutes, and the votal sits at:

• Cat~ - 3 (Mish, Ghost, cstar)

• Marushi - 1 (Calxiyn)

• . : tale : . - 2 (Judge Sunrose, al215)

• Ghost - 1 (Mixt)

On that note, Calxiyn, you're not on a vote for Cat either. You ask me if I'd be willing to consolidate, and I've given my answer. How about you?

 

I'm going to Unvote: Ghost. Since that was just a pressure vote. (Not that he was likely to be in trouble anyway).

Like Midnight, I find myself not being sure of players enough to take action.
I wanted pressure on Cat, but that was because she was supposed to be here to respond yesterday. Clearly a lack of defending yourself isn't a good defense; but I felt like the case against Cat was mediocre and really I wanted to know what the response would be.
The Cal case is interesting. But there is the whole elephant in the room about that where it might be a bad idea to lynch and we could learn a little something tonight just sitting on it.
And after that no one looks lynchable to me. So, barring some dramatic turn, I will leave my vote purposefully unassigned and let everything take its course; which is probably going to be Cat.

 

Think this plan is interesting because right now we have 11 players, 3 of which are mafia and 8 are town so if we know Cal is cop then we will have 3 confirmed town which means we will have 8 people to go after as mafia. After tomorrow night's mafia kill we will have 9 players, minus the cop maybe, leaving 6 players. Which doesn't narrow down a whole lot. That's only if Cal is cop and she's reveals, which I don't with.

I agree with this here. There's no need to hard lynch her. If the votes here stay the same then she will end up dying anyway. And this way if she does show up she will have a chance to defend herself. If not we would forcefully end the day 3 or 4 hours earlier which we should avoid.

 

Apologies for the absence, especially in light of the accusations flying around. I had forgotten that yesterday was the 4th of July and I ran into some unexpected things to take care of earlier today as well.

I'm currently catching up on everything that's been posted for this in-game day and I'll write up a proper response as soon as I have.

 

Ah, Cat. Hello, and sorry you got here so late. XD Even if you provided a first-rate defense, I'm afraid there's not much hope for you. This late in the game, getting enough people voting for someone else is very slim. But, if you post your reads before you go, it would be very helpful.

 

It's been ONE WEEK SINCE YOU VOTED ME, THREW YOUR ARMS IN THE AIR AND SAID 'YOU'RE SCUMMY'

• Cat~ - 3 (Mish, Ghost, cstar)
• . : tale : . - 2 (Judge Sunrose, al215)
• Marushi - 1 (Calxiyn)
• No vote - 5 (Midnight Star, Cat~, . : tale : ., Marushi, Mixt

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to hammer. Day 2 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 5, or approximately 2 hours and 20 minutes.

 

Okay, so I've been reading up on the various accusations/arguments for my being mafia and I'll reply to some of the bigger ones as of now, if only because there's less than three hours to the deadline. If anyone wants me to elaborate on ANYTHING before the day is done, just ask. I'll start with the questions that were directed to me by @al215

To be honest, I'm not 100% sure where I'd put @Mish on the scale between town and mafia. Let me just bring up a couple things that just seem fishy to me.

MAFIA VIBES:

• dropping the first vote of the game on Day 1 - Okay, so she defends herself here, and I will say that it's a logical defense and I probably shouldn't get mafia vibes from such a simple thing. HOWEVER, take a moment to put yourself into a mafia's shoes: starting off with a vote like this would be the perfect way to try and blend in with town. It establishes you as someone who isn't afraid to take action as opposed to making six pages of analysis before finally coming to a decision last minute, and having that behavioral pattern cemented early makes it just that bit easier to cover yourself when it comes to rash voting in the long game. I may be the only one thinking this way about that behavior, and again it was justified in a reasonable way to get the quiet people talking, but it just rubs me the wrong way that the explanation wasn't just placed in that first post. But speaking of rash voting...
• voting based on one post versus overall attitude/posts - Might just seem like I'm trying to call her out for putting all this speculation down on me, but I'm not. If it weren't going to isolate people and/or be distracting to the facts, I'd whip out some of those Ace Attorney gifs and get on with this analysis.
  If you look closely at the post right above the one linked in this bullet point, Mish calls out Cal for being suspicious of Midnight based on her tone in previous posts. Specifically, she said the following:
  
  
  And yet, one mistake later she's immediately voting for me. Looking at this purely from an analytical standpoint, yes I did screw up and yes it was a potentially compromising situation for Cal, but voting immediately instead of just posing the question and voting once a response (or lack thereof in my case, which I still apologize for) has been made. It just seems fishy imo...

And that's pretty much it. Might not be much, and hell it might just be a hunch that I'm entirely wrong about, but the info is there for you all to do what you will with it.

Well, let me answer your question with a snippet of this same post that sums up my feelings pretty well:

This is more or less my issue with Tale to be honest. He's been less active than many of us would like, and even though I can't really be the spokesperson for active participation it would be helpful if more of his 32 posts in this thread were analysis. A lot of it has just been short posts to unvote or correct someone on a minor issue. On Day 1 I feel like that can be forgiven, but when this is the post with the most analysis there's something left to be desired...

At this point, my voting for someone won't be nearly enough to sway public opinion, but since the odds are that I'll be going down today anyway I might as well just throw it out there.
For the reasons stated above, and because I'm not the only one feeling this way, I'll go ahead and ##Vote: . : tale : .



I also believe that @Midnight Star asked me for my top three mafia picks at one point (even if I'm misremembering, I feel like throwing them out there might help in the long game), so as of now I'd have to say my top three mafia suspects are as follows:

1. . : tale : . ~ for reasons stated above
2. Calxiyn ~ though she has done long posts of analysis, she also did a lot of it early on in day one. Granted, the first instance was regarding a post that's also rubbed me the wrong way, but if Mish is a townie then calling her out on making the first vote would be a smart way to not only create a target but it would also give her an excuse to make a post of analysis and make herself seem like she's genuinely being a "useful asset" to the town. Her defense of Al and accusation of Midnight are also pretty sketchy, and like I said before there's only two ways for her to know Al's alignment for certain so early on. If she's not dead come tomorrow morning, she's a good potential target for the cop to check out later.
3. Marushi ~ i will say that i'm not 100% certain about this one either, but unlike with Mish the wishy-washy vibe is throwing me off. With Mish my hunches are much smaller, but her bringing up the cop so much near the very end of the day is striking me as a reminder to mafia that Cal is still a suspect in the running for that role. Despite only joining a short while ago, her post count matches tale's (at 32) and is only surpassed by Blaine and Midnight. I've seen her in action in past games, hell she's one of the most memorable players to me from past games, and you know why? Her massive walls of analysis to rival Attack on Titan's actual, physical walls. There have been fewer of those this game, however, and though that may just come down to the fact that it's only Day 2, it's got me wondering. Why so many posts that are only two to three sentences in length? And why so many of them in such rapid succession? It's just got me kind of uneasy, not to mention pushing for Cal to reveal whether she's the cop. What was simply a passing remark (and potential mistake on my end) has become a full blown page of trying to correct her "mistake."

So again, if anyone has anything they want me to elaborate or comment on just let me know.
dear lord i spent over an hour on this... crazy

 

I can't quote Cats post but the Mish thing is true. The only thing we have to go off of is Blaines tone so for Mish to say I'm being too rash with Midnight but we say that because of simply how Blaine acted she must be Mafia, I mean make it fair. I think tone does matter so obviously I'm for lynching BOTH of them. If we're going to be setting a precedent it has to be that way for everyone we look at lol[DOUBLEPOST=1467768313][/DOUBLEPOST]Also to answer your question Marushi that's why. I still think Cat is guilty but if lynching people for tone and mistakes isn't valid for midnights case why is it for Cats? Lol. Plus we do have enough to get her anyway

 

Just to clarify, by BOTH you mean lynching Mish and myself?[DOUBLEPOST=1467768555][/DOUBLEPOST]Nevermind I just saw your doublepost. Brain's kinda fried after all that analysis...

 

No. I mean you and Midnight lol. But I'm saying Mish can't pick one and not the other basically, does that help? Like if we're going off of people's tone/mistakes/etc and there's enough of a case on both people we either need to say "Yes we should lynch for this" or "No we should not" because it can't be one and not the other. I hope that makes sense. I would be like you running a light and getting in trouble, meanwhile midnight runs the same light and people don't fault her.

Blaine had a different watch of approaching things but since we're talking about being rash here it may be good to mention the contrast between Mishs choices on Cat and Misnight seperately for estienatlly a similar reason[DOUBLEPOST=1467768603][/DOUBLEPOST]Not watch I mean way. Sorry haha[DOUBLEPOST=1467768669][/DOUBLEPOST]

Honestly Cat it may
Be too late
For you but
I think it's only fair that of we lynch you tonight we should also at least examine Midnight tomorrow. Then again I could tie the vote by voting for Tail, but I still think you're
Mafia lol​

 

Well, the answer to this is very simple: Midnight's tone is the only thing you have in your case. Lynching someone for tone alone just doesn't seem like a very good idea to me. To use your streetlight analogy; if you ran a red light and had a faulty tail-light and weren't wearing your seat belt, you'd be in more trouble than if Midnight simply ran a red light. That, I believe, is the difference.

Btw, even though I do suspect Cat of being Mafia and am willing to see her lynched on this day phase, I would like to remind the group that it was neither suggested or perpetrated by me. Lynching Cat was the decision of other people, and there was already one vote on her before I even was invited to substitute. I am willing to support it and see where it leads, but lynching Cat was not my decision, so I'm not sure how I'm at fault that Cat was voted for and not Midnight. I didn't post my cases on either of them until very recently.[DOUBLEPOST=1467769315][/DOUBLEPOST]Unless you meant why do I have Blaine's tone in my case against Cat and not in the one against Midnight? That would be because lol, by the time I got down to Midnight's case, I had already worked on that post for an hour before bed the night before, thought about my theories off and on to sleep on them and think them through, and then worked for a good two or three hours on it this morning. So by the time I got to Midnight's case, I was tired and anxious to post, as well as finding myself unable to remember everything I might have noticed about her. I do believe I mention that Midnight seems a bit defensive at times, but I don't think I listed it as a point because honestly, she doesn't sound as defensive to me as Blaine did, or as you have. Of course, I do chat with Midnight in the Pirate thread, whereas I don't really talk to you as much as I'd like to, and I don't know Blaine almost at all, so that could be a reason why I thought the two of you sounded defensive whereas Mid just sounded a little busy and stressed. I don't really know why I think the way I do, that's just what I feel about the Players, when it comes to the point of defensiveness.

 

Hey, I'm not knocking whatever suspicions you have. The only roles we know for sure are our own, and with a little over an hour left it seems as though my fate is sealed no matter what. I'm not blaming you.

I would just like to chip in and say that Blaine's posts line up with his actions in general. He's pretty blunt in conversation and when he's provoked he can get pretty defensive. It comes across as being overly so, but yeah. That's just a reference for any future games he may or may not be a part of.