Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

Much obliged, Nova, thanks! :D

 

Doing a activity log like I have been doing is a bit pointless because only 2 of his posts really have anything of interest. What may be useful is summarising the key points that Krowley looked at.

So Krowley's big analysis post looked particularly at:

• The total number of posts of each person (both highest and lowest).
  He said about the people with the most posts, "This could mean they've been the most helpful and instructive, OOORRR that they have quite the silver tongue with these types of situations. They've been the most involved yes, and may either be very skilled at this game, or wish to keep the game headed in a direction that distracts from their own selves." At the time of his post, highest was me and Blaine, this will be different now.
• Most Changed Votes - The people who point the most fingers
  This might be to deter suspicion off themselves - at the time of his post Al215 and Cal had pointed the most fingers.

These things may be different people and may be worth looking at.

That was the other post that might be of interest. I don't think I've ever been called devious before, that amused me.

 

I see I didn't do the best job at expressing my beliefs on the Tale case, so I'll try my best to explain them properly.

^These bits seem to imply that my case against him was built upon the Unvote event. Well, it wasn't. I didn't have any evidence to think he was Mafia at the time, so I tried to press one of the quieter players. That was merely a way to get him talking, and guess what, it worked. His first defense was perfectly fine, I even said so myself, but the issue there was that, as a result, Tale showed us that he was indeed capable of making solid and informative points.

But why hasn't he done so again, except for when he had to either explain or defend himself? Marushi herself remarked the same thing:

Hence my follow-up post. His next response, however, didn't convince me, so I decided to place my chips on the fella. I still feel pretty convinced about him. And if I turn out to be wrong, well, it'd suck, another mislynch, but that's how the game goes.

~~|| As a side note, I've been thinking a lot about my possible bias towards my early mafia reads. I was mafia on my first game, and I know how much an advantage this faction has. We ended up winning that one, Ben and I, pretty much because we layed low, so I'm always super aware of the quiet ones from personal experience. Especially those that CAN contribute but don't. On the flip side, this bias played a big part in undermining my performance during one of the last games (Book of Names, if I'm not mistaken). Idk, I just thought I should put this out there for anyone that's interested. ||~~

 

I too am really starting to doubt Tale's innocence. And in every group of possible Mafia I can build, he fits in easily. He hasn't given me enough to conclusively read him as scum, but I think that's his plan, if he is indeed guilty. He's been careful to be ambiguous enough that he's not much of a threat, at least, not during the Day Phase.

However, Cstar is in much the same boat, and for that matter, so is Ghost, to a certain extent. admittedly, they're not nearly as slippery as Tale seems to be, but I think we shouldn't discount them as innocent yet.

 

I'm not completely convinced tale is guilty but we still don't have that much from him to go on, most of his posts are from the first day and I would really like him to respond to the stuff that has been posted today. I don't really just want him to post in his own defence, I would like his top town and mafia reads. I would like to hear more from everyone you've mentioned actually. Additionally I have completed activity logs on all of those three.

Hmm...

@. : tale : . @Ghost @cstar What are your top mafia and top town reads?

 

Hmm... @Midnight Star , in your notes on Cstar's log, you reiterate not to rolespec about the Cop.

I agree, that people shouldn't publically rolespec, but Cstar specifically said in the post in question,

Actually, Midnight, before you start working on another log, what are your top town and Mafia reads? You were, after all, the one who asked people to give reads in the first place. The logs are helpful, yes, but I feel like if you focus on them too much, you'll miss out on giving more opinions yourself. And I believe that hard data, while a great thing to have access to, isn't quite as useful as information we could gain from theories and analyses.[DOUBLEPOST=1467672695][/DOUBLEPOST]Whoops, sorry, I think that top part was a draft from a scrapped thought I had a little while ago. XD Pay no attention, guys, that went nowehere and was a bad idea anyway, which is why I scrapped it so early. XD

 

I actually hadn't been thinking about that usage. Although if that is part of why Blaine was targeted I'm surprised no one else at least mentioned that I also have been.

To me I was thinking of it like cleaning out the clutter. Like we can't make a useful move now, but we can clean house a bit and be better prepared for next time.

 

Mafia:
1. Cat~ @Cat~
Cat gives off this vibe because of her hyping Krowley's analytical skills up and making us feel the loss after he died. She was also the first to cop speculate. And while I am fully aware that I bounced off her speculation of Cal to defend Cal from being town, this was a night time slip admittedly and I wish I hadn't brought it up because I realized I just reminded everyone. I know Cat has been busy but I feel like her actions seem to benefit herself as an individual rather than the town. Also, we cannot forget how defensive Blaine had been, I know people say that's Blaine's personality but his play style for day 1 was definitely not one I was used to and was strange to me.

2. Calxiyn @Calxiyn
Cal's defense of Al was definitely a peculiar one and I'm sure she regrets it. This is just speculation but the only reason I could see these two in the mafia together despite seeming to go neck and neck is that they agreed to go harsh on each other with their posts and perhaps there is a 'fake cop' scenario going on. Where Cat could be getting us to believe that to stir us up.

these are the only two that I can think of but as a bonus because I want to go to 3.

3. Mixt @Mixt
He has not voted and I understand that he said he wasn't getting any hard reads on anyone but he hasn't really used his vote yet to push anyone. But it's day 2, and day 2 isn't over, but it strikes me as odd.

Town:
1. Al @al215
I feel as though Cal's defense of him, no matter what side Cal is on, makes it so he is town and I feel almost certain about this, as he did not ask to be defended and I'm sure if Cal is mafia she wouldn't have blatantly protected him like that.

2. Marushi @Marushi
Now, Marushi doesn't make me believe she is town, it was Heart's actions. I honestly feel as though she made genuine mistakes, I have done the same thing. However, I can't fully be trusting in my believe Marushi is town because she's been very vocal as well and has not been afraid to go straight after Cal and others, which could be mafia actions pushing to get some vanilla's out. But I have more reason to believe they are town because of Heart.

Also I'm aware that I have been relatively quiet compared to most of the "vocal" players but that's because every time I had a lead someone else finished it up and I really didn't think I could add anything. That's why I tend to respond to the big analyses

And since I've got my opinions out there I hope you guys can understand why I...
##Vote: Cat~

 

...I knew that was coming, I knew it. Umm, it's past midnight now so would you mind if I had a sleep on it and got back to you in the morning? A lot of people I'm really not sure about, I'm sat so much on the fence my bum hurts. I just really don't want to prematurely decide that someone is mafia or town. At the moment, anyone could be either. However that is not a good way to play the game and the best way to progress is for everyone to share their thoughts about who they currently suspect as even if wrong this gives us a lot of material to work with.

Off the top of my head my highest mafia read is Cat~ as she has done some things that don't help town such as suggest a no lynch (when we thought we could do that) and also she cop speculated. I'm not completely certain though as I can see her logic as on d1 the chances of us hitting a town member are very high as well as the cop thing might have been an honest mistake.

My biggest town read is al215, basically because I've agreed with most of what he's said as it makes sense to me. He is also actively posting and helping town. However, I'm not completely discounting the possibility of him being mafia, he could just be quite a good player.

I might do a top 3 of both tomorrow but I'd need to think that though a lot more.

 

Alright, I understand it's getting late for you, Midnight. I look forward to seeing your reads tomorrow.

And Cstar, thanks for your reads as well.

Calxiyn I see you viewing the thread. Quite a coincidence, because I was just about to tag you. XD I've seen you popping in and out of the thread for several hours now, yet you haven't posted on events since before Midnight asked everyone for reads. Could you please post your reads? That is, If you weren't already about to do that. XD

 

That's a perfectly valid concern. Combined with my admittedly mid-level activity that many people have mentioned as being a Mafia behavior, it would be wise to keep an eye on me. But as a quick defense...
I haven't voted mostly because I'm naturally quite trusting and, being my first game, I haven't really learned to turn that off enough to vote. Even when it comes to voting with the intention to retract after a response I'm just slow on the draw. For example we now have 3 votes on @Cat~ and with a hammer at 6 now it would be suspicious if I did vote that way, especially before Cat responds to all this.

But I think I best get acclimated by jumping in, so I'll try and see where it makes sense to put a vote and respond later today. (Hopefully in a couple of hours)

 

It is a good idea to vote, yes, but I'll caution you about voting for Cat just yet, if you do intend to vote for her. I'd like to see the day-phase pan out a little longer, and take advantage of the extended deadline. Yes, it would be very surprising at this point if people hopped onto the wagon and hammered at this point, but it's still better to be safe than sorry.

If you intend to place your vote on someone else, than all this was for nothing and I'm just overly cautious. :p

 

We're fine. As said above I know it would be foolish to actually vote for Cat right now. The worst I would do would be to declare that I would be voting that way tomorrow (which I won't actually do at least until Cat responds, or in the unlikely event that she doesn't). I'm wanting to add pressure somewhere else where the person is around to respond, I just haven't decided who that should be yet.

 

Makes sense, sorry. XD I may be starting to backseat drive a little and that's the last thing I want. XD I think I worded it wrong, too. I think what I meant to say was voting is important and I do think you should at some point, but not to let yourself be pressured into something unless you think it's right. BUT! I know you weren't now, and like I said, I don't mean to backseat drive.

I just don't have anything better to do than obsess over the thread atm and I've been trying to think of things to say. XD

 

Alright. I'm going to go with @Ghost really just due to quietish place that we seem to agree Mafia are likely to be in. So consider this a kick in the pants to post more.

##Vote: Ghost

 

Psst @Mixt you forgot to bold. XD[DOUBLEPOST=1467682140][/DOUBLEPOST]Cap I hit enter and my sentence posted. XD I meant to add more to that. XD Now I just look like a pushy person. XD

Anyway, I was going to say that sounds like a good idea. Let's build on that pressure a bit, eh?

##Vote: Ghost

 

So I did. But no edits and I think it would confuse things slightly to post that a second time, so it shall remain.

 

Sorry, for not posting much today I've been out a lot. I actually thought I was getting better at posting more >-<. Also is this color okay? It doesn't bother me but I wanna make sure it doesn't bother any of you.

My top Mafia picks based on what I have would probably have to be Cat~, based on what I posted before, Tale, not really anything substantial to go on just that feeling i had since these are personal picks. Maybe Cal, but I'm still kind of on the fence about that because she seems to be trying to help the town but she is a bit too defensive.

For town, I think Marushi is probably town because she's working in the interest of the town and trying to help those of us who are having trouble out which is an action that wouldn't help out the mafia at all. I also think Al is town, besides the obvious Krowley put out his name when he was killed, which doesn't really mean all that much. He hasn't really done anything all that suspicious.

 

The color's fine with me. :)

And thanks for your response, it's helpful to know where everyone stands.

Another question before I go to bed, just to keep conversation going and so that this post actually has something meaningful to it: What are your thoughts on Cstar, when you have the time?