Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

Discussion in 'The Playground' started by Makaze, Jun 27, 2016.

  1. Lauriam I hope I didn't keep you waiting...

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    Alright. How about Tale? Some people have been suspicious of him for a little while now. I'm skimming through day 1 again to see how I feel about him. How about you?
     
  2. Calxiyn Keyblade Master

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    I can't seem to quote your post so I'll just respond as I see things I guess.

    But can't it be both? There are three Mafia, and I'm sure that all of them have a different reason for lynching Krowley. It doesn't matter if their reasons are different because they got the job done. I said in this post:

    To clear up any confusion. I don't think that it's possible that the Mafia would limit themselves to one reason for killing Krowley. Again, there are three Mafia, and 2 of them could have the thought pattern I already put up there. It's alright if you missed it.

    And I didn't say Heart should have been killed instead of Krowley. In the post you're referencing I said this:
    The last people who Krowley spoke about were Al and I. I think that they killed Krowley and not say, Heart, may be because of these reasons:

    In that context, Heart was simply being used as an example. She was being quiet/semi-inactive/not making analysis, which the Mafia can always use to buy them time later, which is why I contrasted them both. Krowley was also quiet and semi-inactive, but he did make a huge post before. I could have used, say, G-Dog, or Mixt and gotten the same effect.

    My case against you is right here: http://kh-vids.net/threads/mafia-the-classic-setup-game-1.154626/page-17#post-4281429 It has less to do with you, and more to do with Heart and what SHE said before Krowley was lynched that day. Like I said in that post, it looks like it could be a set up for her to have referred to later, which she didn't get the chance to.

    I can't find my post for my case against Midnight in this sea of pages, however, I remember clearly that it was because of how defensive she was in one of her responses to me, which she later apologised for saying she was too harsh. Now, I wasn't sure if that was a backtrack or simply an error, though I didn't see her post as too harsh to me lol. That is why I had a reason to vote against her.

    The "younger sister" analogy is nice, I guess, but a lot of us are older than 5 and have a lot more common sense then to do that. I understand what you're trying to say but that may be seen as slightly condescending, or at least, I see it that way.

    I didn't realise Heart had made the post about Al and I until I went back to look at her posts, or else I would have used it in my whole analysis about Mafia setting us up for bait, which is why I mentioned, again, in this post: http://kh-vids.net/threads/mafia-the-classic-setup-game-1.154626/page-17#post-4281429

    No offence to Heart, but I wasn't afraid of her as a player. She wasn't aggressive enough to make the Mafia or Town members worry.

    And of course, it doesn't mean we're cleared as Town. No one is cleared at Town. You have an idea of what the likelihood is that this person if Mafia/Town based on their posts, but nothing can be proven until you are dead. However, like it was said earlier, there are only three possible combinations here. I am Town and Al is Mafia. I am Mafia and Al is Town. Or I am Town and Al is town. So probability wise, there's 1/3 chance.

    As for Midnight's case, it wasn't because solely because she sounded offended, it was also because she sounded defensive. As I said in that post, it's all about her tone.

    But you have to consider that by putting myself at such a length, I would be leaving myself completely out in the open. The game is as much about offence as it is about defence, and if you have no defence and you are Mafia, offence alone can't help you. There needs to be a balance.

    Throwing people under the bus gives me an opportunity to see how they react, if nothing else, and I wouldn't say I threw Al under any "bus", I'm simply playing devil's advocate because, as you said, there is no way to know who is and is not town. I can believe a player is town, but the town also has a right to know reasons why they may not be, which is what I'm been doing this game.

    No one else has commented on Heart's last posts before she got replaced. If no one else finds them as suspicious, well, obviously we can't lynch you if no one else is convinced lol.

    As for my shyness/timidness, what have you, that's because I was 3 years younger and back then I was just a completely different person. The turn-around may be odd for you, but for the other members who have known me since then can probably comment that in the past few years I've changed a lot. My aggressiveness is simply part of my more competitive personality.

    As I said before, my reasons for voting for you are clear up there. If it was simply because I was scared I would have no case, and no chance to convince anyone to lynch you. This is a team game, and we need 6 people for a hard lynch.

    Also I think it's sort of interesting that you assume that I'm panicking. I'm not quite sure what in my posts led you to believe that. You've already seen a contrast in my personality, so I'll give you another one: Last game, when someone would accuse me I would start shaking, get really anxious and nervous (Even though last game, I mean, I think I was Town???), but in these games I am perfectly calm as far as anxiety goes. (Now, competitive adrenalin is a different story, but that makes things more exciting). When you panic you're not thinking clearly. You go switch to an offensive position instead of a mix between offence and defence, and your brain just isn't clear.

    And that's not putting on a front. The people who could make me start panicking are Tale and Al, possibly Midnight depending on what she says.

    I would say I attack as well as try to defend whoever I'm considering. It's devil's advocate. I want to give the players the entire picture, even if that may be obviously contradicting myself. But that's what it is, it's on purpose.
    Because, for example, I can't say for certain that Blaine was Town and just arrogant, but he was also Mafia and just defensive. So I say both, and we can come up with our own conclusions together. Both of those things cannot be true at the same time, but it's our job to figure out which one is right, so there needs to be every option on the table.

    And theories are meant to be re-examined. We cannot stay absolutely consistent throughout the whole game, as circumstances and new evidence we have in the game changes, we need to reconsider what we said before and change it to fit the current situation.


    Also, I agree with Midnight. I have come to terms that I am (probably) going to die, unless they want to keep me around to be lynched the day after so the Mafia can kill someone else tonight. Which, in that case, we should lynch another person to at least to attempt to get the actual Mafia.
     
  3. Ghost King's Apprentice

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    My, bad. I probably just misread it. Sorry.
     
  4. Lauriam I hope I didn't keep you waiting...

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    On my way out the door. can't post long.

    First off, Cal, I'm sorry if my analogy was demeaning, it wasn't intended to be and I would never intend to insult you; I do have respect for your skill in this game as an investigator.

    Secondly, holy crap has it been three years!? Wow... lol, my brain doesn't work. XD

    And finally, I hope you understand that telling us you're not nervous irl can't really be used as a good defense. Just like I understand that my stating that I am town isn't really a good defense for me. XD It's just there, it's just a note.

    Anyway, you're still my top read for Mafia, sorry. I could be wrong, but atm I believe you are by far acting the most suspiciously, and your argument just... doesn't hold up with me.

    I'll be back in about an hour to respond to more posts and to keep investigating Tale. If everyone would like to join me in postulating theories about Calxiyn, Cat, and Tale, just for starters, I would be much obliged.
     
  5. Calxiyn Keyblade Master

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    I wasn't using it as a defence Lol, It's something none of you can prove unless you're sitting next to me. More of just an anecdote, or something to keep in mind if other people want to have a go at trying to make me scared XD Even if it's not for this game.
     
  6. Midnight Star Master of Physics

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    :( I spent ages on that and just got an 'alright', now you're asking me about someone else?? Opinions are hard. Sorry, I know I comparatively didn't give you very much but I'm just finding it very difficult to make my mind up about people. I'll have a look through at tale's posts and see what I can decide. I can say right now in that I don't find him sus because of his delay in unvoting you because that was actually reasonable and I can also understand him not feeling necessary to explain his reasons when he did unvote you.

    I'm finding it really strange when Cal is talking about herself in third person and as if she didn't know her own role. I mean I understand why she's doing that, putting herself in our shoes, but still it's weird.

    Would it be a good idea later today to ask for everyone's top three town reads and top three mafia reads? (I ask this knowing full well that I will struggle to be able to do this)
     
  7. Mish smiley day!

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    This is kind of difficult. I want to say what I think the mafia will do and also try to do damage control, but I also don't want to give them any ideas..! Ugh, I might state my 'plan of action' before the end of the game day, in case I get mafia killed/lynched before I can get the opportunity.

    In any case, I definitely don't think we should lynch Cal today. If she is the cop, her death warrant has already been signed anyway. We still have a lot we can learn from her, whether she is truly the cop or not.

    So, @Marushi, you are the only one with a vote sitting on Cal. Would you consider changing your vote to someone else? If so, who to?


    As Tale has been on some people's radars, I suppose I'll comment on that.. I think that the case against him is pretty weak (sorry Judge). He's mafia because he didn't unvote Cat straight away? This doesn't work for me on two fronts: 1) As Tale stated in his defence, Cat retained Blaine's role when she joined the game. If Tale thought Blaine was mafia, he is right to hesitate before unvoting Cat until learning a bit more about her. 2) Cat is also my top mafia read at the moment, so if anything I agree with Tale's suspicion of her.

    I'm 50/50 on Tale. He hasn't done anything thus far that has lead me to believe that he is mafia, but he also hasn't convinced me that he is Town.

    For reference, here are my reads:

    Cat - mafia
    Marushi - possibly mafia
    Judge - possibly mafia
    Midny - 50/50
    Cstar - 50/50
    Tale - 50/50
    Mixt - 50/50
    Ghost - 50/50
    Cal - possibly town
    Al - town

    So many people I'm not sure about. >_> Also, reads are subject to change.
     
  8. al215 Kingdom Keeper

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    ##Vote: Extend Day. Nice way to keep things noticeable. I like it.

    Welcome back to Mafia Maru! We're getting a suspiciously familiar cast together now XD


    Seems like a reasonable explanation, which is pretty much what I wanted to see from you. I wanted to see what would happen if I did pressure you, and now I've seen. I'm not sure that I entirely trust you in all honesty, however you're not as significant of a threat as others as far as I am concerned now so I am happy to leave you where you are. For now at least.

    ##Unvote: Mish



    Solid roundup there Maru, back on form again I see. Judging by Maru's behaviour and KH530's before her, I don't believe that Maru is actually Mafia. She is taking a far too pro-town approach for me to really consider her suspicious and I think that KH530's actions came down to inexperience and potentially even being slightly overwhelmed by the game (Happened to me first game or two a little). Marushi's call to action on the players' side is massively against Mafia interest. Promoting investigations is the last thing that the Mafia wants - The less information people think they have, the better. Right now, we're pursuing a reasonable number of angles which keeps the pressure on and given the amount of eyes we have on the cases at the moment, things will crop up.

    That said, I can't suspect Marushi because she seems too happy and even when she was Maf I didn't think of it.

    For now though, gut instincts are telling me that her and KH530 before her are probably Town.



    My thoughts exactly.


    While it's true that yes, we do need to lynch someone today I don't think that serves as a particularly good justification for trying to push a lynch on Marushi on what we've got. There are other fish to fry.


    Insightful as always Judge and I, as I have often before, find myself in agreement with what you're saying on Krowley. It was an effective kill on someone who could have been a threat and was stopped before they got started.

    The matter of Tale is certainly an interesting one and as you've quite rightly said, they've been flying under the radar for the game so far. Not doing too much, but not too little. That would fit in with where the Mafia would want to be in theory as far as I'm concerned. Being #2 on a wagon doesn't necessarily lead to someone being Mafia, but there's certainly a case to be made for them trying to encourage that wagon to get rolling which it, ultimately, did not. If I were a conspiratorial character then one could say that the kill that night was because the wagon failed and they wanted to prevent him from being a problem later.

    Mixt also fits that not too much and not too little bill that seems to be the generally thought to be ideal spot, and Cal is an interesting case who I'll respond to a bit later. Judging by Mixt's later posts, I'm erring on the side of Town for now. It's not particularly in the interest of the Mafia to extend the day because it gives more time to discuss leads.


    I'll corroborate the change in personality from her previous games that she brings up in a post (Which has some things which I'll be looking at later). What I will say is this - She is definitely a strong candidate for being something suspicious and it would be best to see what the night brings. The cop thing could be equally true, hence me saying to wait and see what the night brings with regards to Cal.



    Interesting points about Cat~, and I think that it's worth pursuing that angle.


    Agreed on all accounts.

    And oh boy, here's a big one. As I have been with other posts before, I'll be cutting parts out of this one to show off the ones I believe to be the most pertinent.

    So, your point about theories is very true and I agree with that. And I also agree that we shouldn't lynch you Cal because you're probably dead tonight for the aforementioned reasons. And playing devil's advocate is also reasonable.

    What I don't understand in any way is your total fixation on that accusation that Krowley made. On the very first day you attempt to clear both myself and you despite there being no real need for it and you have constantly come back to that today. It's almost as if you're trying to draw attention to yourself, or to me with the amount of times that you bring it up. It always comes down to the "At least one of us must be Mafia or at best both" thing. I don't understand why you need to make such constant reference to it. And a further thing, if we're talking about people being defensive, one could quite easily point to you defending your hypothesis on the Mafia M.O. surrounding the Krowley kill. I've cut most of that out because it's just not that important. As Judge stated earlier, Krowley's death is not as significant as we seem to be making it out to be. We've extracted what we can out of it at this point with the information available and I'm willing to say now that to bring it up again would be to detract from getting into more important discussions.

    And if we were going to go by the same strands of logic that you use, then this is an intricate ploy to potentially ingratiate yourself to me who is apparently generally thought to be Town aligned. The talk of being 90% sure is you playing devil's advocate in order to appear to be the investigative townie considering all of her options as a disguise. Compared to everyone else, you're very confident about the Mafia's particular operational style. It is true that such a thing is good to speculate on, the fact that you're trying to defend your view on it so much may well be because that is the impression that you wish to give the Town.

    That being said, I'm not sure if I wholly believe that theory, but that is what one could conceivably draw from what you're saying if one is willing to take your logic, apply it to you and take it to that extent. I believe you to be capable enough to do such a thing.

    Of course, if we're not going to lynch Cal then who? Well, Mish posted something while I've been working on this that I think would be useful to take a look at.


    What I'm getting based off this and what else has been said today is that the choice is really between Tale and Cat~ today. They appear to be the two people that are being looked at right now and focused on the most. @Mish can you give us a more fulfilling explanation as to why you believe that Cat is Mafia? What, in your opinion, is it about Cat that makes you believe so?


    Those two posts seem to indicate town to me and to be honest, there's not much to go off today. Neither Tale nor Cat have said much at all. This could speak for their guilt in either case, but based off past evidence Cat doesn't seem to be too bad to me. Those are pro town ideas. Of course, there was a guarantee that a death would happen. There was the misstep with the cop identity speculation but I'm not convinced that was made out of malice. Hanlon's Razor states thus: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by carelessness. Of course in this game, we should expect a certain degree of malice to appear somewhere but in this particular instance I am willing to put it down to a lapse in judgement made by the desire to make that point about Cal who is very much in question at the moment and to be perfectly honest, I think it needed to be said. Cal is a divisive figure at the moment and right now it is impossible to tell who she actually is and with that suggestion, it gives rise to some interesting possibilities later on. It allows us to divert attention from her on to different people, at least for now. And I don't think that is another Mafia member covering for another by suggest that they might be the cop before people start putting their tinfoil hats on.

    Now for Tale.

    Judge takes issue with the fact that a vote was not retracted immediately but I think that Tale's defence is actually fairly reasonable. They had just subbed in and hadn't come to their own judgement on what Blaine/Cat was. If anything, I think that was the most sensible thing for him to do. And also, when the vote was retracted there wasn't much justification until he was pressed. This is similar to Mish, who did much the same thing but was also able to reasonably justify it.

    Here are a couple of things from day one that we can see Tale say. The first point does seem rather passive, but when that attitude was critcised they picked Krowley who at the time was rather quiet. Now, if we go back to that conspiracy theory I talked about in Cal's part of this post then one could say that because Tale failed to get the kill on Krowley from there he killed him later. Such a thing would require a leap of logic, but the link is there if you want to press that.


    This hasn't been followed up yet and to be honest, the trail cuts off here. Just on the basis that the case on both is weak, but the case on Cat~ is weaker I'm willing to put my vote down on Tale. However, let's make sure to ask questions.

    ##Vote: . : Tale : .

    @. : tale : . these are for you:
    What do you make of your accuser, Judge Sunrose? And I suppose, of me? And why?
    What do you make of Cat~ right now, and why do you think that way?
    Would you be willing to put a vote down on someone and justify it?

    @Cat~ these are for you:
    What do you make of Mish, who currently suspects you the most? Why do you think that is?
    What do you make of Tale, the other person being examined pretty hard at the moment? Why do you hold that opinion?
    Would you be willing to put a vote down on someone and justify it?

    What I want to see from this is your own judgements. Feel free to quote a post that makes a point that you agree with, but please don't simply say "I agree" to something you quoted. I want to see properly substantiated answers that come from as much your own opinions as others.

    And @Marushi when you have something to add to it what do you make of Tale and Cat? As Mish asked, would you be willing to put a vote down on someone else? If so, why is that?

    And everyone, try to get the day extended. The silence from Cat~ and Tale might be explained by the celebrations today. If that is in fact the case then we need another day to make sure that we get this as covered as possible.

    Time is limited, so let's get some answers out quickly people.[DOUBLEPOST=1467649099][/DOUBLEPOST]As a side note, that took me at least an hour o_0
     
  9. Ars Nova Just a ghost.

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    I NEED a votal, votal, votal is what I NEED
    • Cat~ - 2 (Mish, Ghost)
    • Marushi - 1 (Calxiyn)
    • Calxiyn - 1 (Marushi)
    • . : tale : . - 2 (Judge Sunrose, al215)

    Day 2 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 4 with potential for an extension.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2016
  10. Midnight Star Master of Physics

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    Partially just posting so Nova can make an announcement without it merging BUT I also have almost finished doing an activity log for Ghost. LINK (look at the tabs at the bottom)
     
  11. Ars Nova Just a ghost.

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    By word from on high, game day has been extended by 24hrs. Day 2 will now end at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 5. Get those votes in, kids!
     
  12. Lauriam I hope I didn't keep you waiting...

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    Alrighty, everyone. Firstly, a lot of you have done solid work so far and have really stepped up to the plate with your investigations. Good job, everyone.

    Also, I also would like to ##Vote: Extend deadline. Sorry, lol, I've meant to do that with each recent post and I kept forgetting. XD

    Another thing I kept forgetting to do was Define 'Cleaning House,' just in case there was still lingering confusion about that. Normally I wouldn't bother, but as Cat and Blaine are topics of interest atm, I think it's important to show exactly why that phrase was originally considered a tell for some people.

    Basically, the term 'cleaning house' means to defeat an opponent in a drastic, sometimes even one-sided, spectacular win. If a high-school football team wins a game 54 - 0 (something that happened in my hometown a lot XD) They would be 'cleaning house.'

    So when Blaine mentioned he intended to clean house with the quiet ones, that's what he meant. Some people thought this was a tell; I don't necessarily agree. I think it could have just been an enthusiastic way for him to say we should lynch the inactives. Either way, that's what it meant. Now, onto actual posts. XD

    Midnight, I'm sorry if it seemed like I was pushing you too hard. The reason I responded to your analysis on Cat with an 'alright' was for one thing, because basically what you said was that you didn't really have a strong opinion one way or another, and for another thing, I didn't want to talk too much about Cat myself until more people had told me their own opinions. I really appreciate you taking the time to go through the thread and build a log on Cat's activities. It's really helpful to be able to look at hard data, and I know you spent a lot of time on it. Thank you. :) As for Tale, I agree with you about him.

    For my part, I think the most suspicious thing Tale has done is not post anything worthy of suspicion.

    And I don't just mean his posts are town-like or usually right, I mean... He hasn't really posted anything. He's much too quiet; until Judge began to prod him, it seems to me like almost all of his posts were short notes about how he didn't really have an opinion. I do think that Judge's case against him regarding the vote on Blaine/Cat is weak, and Tale has a perfectly reasonable explanation for it. But he is also way too quiet.

    I had talked to Mixt and Ghost earlier about taking risks and going out there with theories, but perhaps I should have mentioned Tale at that point as well. @. : tale : . , perhaps you could maybe tell us Your top Mafia read, and why. Even if you feel like you're repeating what's already said, go ahead and give it a try. I'm not asking for some super long post with quotes and percentages and multiple theories. Just some sort of definitive stance on the player you believe is more likely to be mafia than anyone else, and a bit on why you believe that.

    With me, it's not really as simple as making a list of reads. Right now, the only person I can say I truly suspect to be Mafia and provide some form of evidence to support it is, as you all already know, Calxiyn. As for everyone else, all of my suspicions are integrated with other people.

    For example, if Calxiyn is a member of the Mafia, then I think Al is unlikely to be. (Though, if she is a member of the Mafia, I do actually believe there's a chance that Al is. No one is innocent until they are dead. More on that theory later.)

    But if Calxiyn is a Townie, my two top suspects would then be @Cat~ and @Midnight Star .

    If Cat is a Mafioso, my top suspect for a team member of Cat's would be Al. Especially if Calxiyn is a townie. If Cal is town and Cat is Mafia, I would take a very long and hard look at Al.

    I also think that if Cat is a Mafioso, @Judge Sunrose might be on her team. But I'm not sure if Judge and Al would be on the same team.

    If Cat is a townie, I think that Cal is even more likely to be a Mafioso. If Cat is a townie, I think that Judge is possibly town aligned.

    Al is difficult. He appears to be very pro-town, and is putting himself out there very strongly and taking far too many risks for me to think conclusively that he is Mafia, but at the same time, is still suspicious enough for me to be wary of, and again, depending on the alignment of Cal and Cat, my opinions on him could change greatly.

    Then there is Tale. I now suspect him too, thanks to Judge's questions making me look at his posts. Tale posts a lot but has yet to say almost anything definitive or take any stance on things one way or another. However, if Judge is Mafia, I think Tale likely isn't.

    Meanwhile, @Mixt and @Ghost have been trying to post more, and post more conclusively and with more thought than they previously had been. My current read on them is Town, but also still could turn out to be Mafia later in the game.

    While Mish... I am uncertain about Mish. As far as I can tell, Mish hasn't seemed to be connected to other players very much. And all Mish's posts are analytical and informative, though whether they are sound is yet to be seen. On a solo read, I'd say Mish is, to me, seeming 60% town and 40% Mafia. My read will be proven/disproven with time.

    And... That long post is my list on who I think are Mafia/Town. XD It's all subjective to itself. To answer your question more conclusively, if I were to unvote Cal and vote for someone else, it would be Cat.

    I believe that Cal and Cat both could be Mafia or could be town. I do not believe they are on the same side. And I believe that Cal is far more likely to be Mafia than Cat. However, if the Cat lynch continues and everyone agrees to lynch Cat today, I will support that decision.

    My vote for Cal is presently just dead weight, so I'll ##Unvote her for now.

    But I'm not going to vote for Cat until she can come in and defend herself. Especially now, I see we have an extended deadline! I do not want more people to vote for Cat yet and risk an accidental or Mafia-assisted hammer. So I won't vote until tomorrow.[DOUBLEPOST=1467656864][/DOUBLEPOST]Quick note: I keep forgetting about @cstar , and that fact alone is troubling me. Too loud to be considered a quiet one but not vocal enough to be counted among the high-profile players? That is an ideal place for a Mafioso to be. Cstar is on my watch list now... If I can keep remembering they're even playing this game.[DOUBLEPOST=1467660494][/DOUBLEPOST]Real quick, everyone: This post makes me think that whatever Cal's alignment, she is at the very least not the cop.

    Why would Cal need to ask this question if she were the cop? Firstly, she would know whether or not her Random Alignment Check brought back a Mafioso or Townie. Secondly, If she has a PM/Quicktopic role station, why would she post her mechanics question here instead of there? And thirdly, and perhaps, most importantly, Why would she post this question at all, if she were the cop? You'd think she would want to be more discreet about it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2016
  13. Mish smiley day!

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    Agreeing with this. While not taking a stance and using evasion tactics could be a mafia move - which is why I'm not convinced Tale is town - Judge's reasoning when he first confronted Tale is actually making me suspect him instead. To me, it seems like (assuming Judge is mafia) he is picking out a less analytical town player and attempting to throw them under the bus, knowing that we won't be able to learn much from him if he gets lynched by us. That said, considering Cat is my top mafia read, I am hesitant to believe that Judge and Cat are on the same team - for a very small reason. Judge corrected Cat when she said I was G-Dog's 6th voter. I find it strange that he would correct his team mate, especially on something that would incriminate me. Even I believed Cat when she said I was the 6th voter, lol. >_> In any case, if Cat is town, my suspicion of Judge increases.

    I love that you are making all these links, but could you maybe write a little bit to justify them? I'm looking at them and wondering why you have come to some of these conclusions. I've started traipsing through everyone's posts, trying to see the links between players but not coming up with much.


    Agreed.

    Why?

    Why does Cat's innocence lead to Cal being mafia?

    Agreed that Tale isn't mafia, if Judge is.

    So, according to you, Cal is your top read for mafia and you believe Cat to be town, but this is dependent on Cal being mafia-aligned. Why then, is your next choice Cat? Because other people have voted for her? I find it odd that you're willing to vote for someone whose mafia-alliance relies on your top mafia read being town.

    Agreed.
     
  14. . : tale_wind Ice to see you!

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    Hoo boy.

    To al:

    1. I think Judge's suspicion based on my hesitation in unvoting was fair; I'd have been suspicious of the same thing. It's been a long time since I've seen Judge active on the site, so it's hard for me to get a read on how much of his playing is his personality vs. how much is playing the game.
    To everyone else since you're kind of all asking the same thing:

    If I had to make a guess at who's mafia at this point...I think I'd go with Calxiyn and/or Cat. I don't have anything substantial to back this up, but it's just a vibe I'm getting. All of Cal's posts have been reasonable and logical, but I feel as if there's an undercurrent of ruthlessness. Maybe it's just her Cinder theme messing with my perception. And Cat--I know this is rich coming from me; this is my...fourth post in this day cycle? and I've contributed approximately nothing?--comes off as evasive to me. Kind of like she's sliding around? I dunno. Like I said, nothing substantial. I'm still trying to go back through stuff to see if I can come up with anything more. You guys move fast.

     
  15. Lauriam I hope I didn't keep you waiting...

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    It's basically looking at how people have been reacting to each other. I'll go into my process a little bit, but I'm afraid I can't give some of my more definitive readings, because there are three different people who I feel might be the Cop, and to role-spec about the Cop's true identity is not a good idea, especially considering the whole mess about Cal atm. And the role of the cop plays very heavily in my analyses.

    That said, all my links are in place as subjective theories based on how people have been interacting. People who have consistently been pushing at each other for lynches, both subtly and openly, are not likely to be on the same side, while people who have the tendency to talk to each other a little more freely than should be expected could potentially be allies. There are also times when people either clear or judge someone based on little or inconclusive evidence, in which case, the reason could be that they are Mafia working together, or another possibility is the cop knows the alignment of the person they are defending, and therefore defend the innocent person even when no evidence for it can be had.

    All of my links are in place because if one person flips town, the alignment of all the others becomes more easily seen.
     
  16. Midnight Star Master of Physics

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    COP SPECULATING IS BAD. DON'T DO IT.

    You can do it in your head but don't talk about it. We do not want to give the mafia any clues to their identity.
     
  17. Lauriam I hope I didn't keep you waiting...

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    That was what I was saying. I was asked for a reason as to why I read different people as connected, and I said that I couldn't do that because in my head, it involves role-speccing.

    I tried to be as vague as I could be even in my Thinking Process, so I really hope that I did a good enough job.

    Right now, the only public stance I'm taking on the cop position is that I don't believe Cal has it. I am not trying to put anyone else under the spotlight.[DOUBLEPOST=1467663074][/DOUBLEPOST]Plus, in all the Mafia games I've ever played in the past, I was only ever right in a guess about a role once, and even then, I was wrong about the role, I was only correct about what person had it. XD So even if I wasn't vague enough, I'm probs wrong anyway and people shouldn't just accept my word in the first place. XD Roles are not my strong point. XD
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2016
  18. Midnight Star Master of Physics

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    To be honest, I probably overreacted there a little bit as I saw you talking about the cop role and just had the instinctual reaction of no, this is bad, I need to stop it. I only reread your post after I posted and found that it wasn't as bad as I initially thought but still we really should not mention it at all. Mafia might take clues or get ideas from what we say, even if it is said in complete innocence. Sooo if possible I'd like to try and steer the conversation as far away from Cops as possible.

    Tbh yeah, I'm the same, I don't have the best track record of getting it right either. I found the dead chat for one of the previous ones I was in (I was town) and I was posting in there saying "please please don't go back and use my suspicions just because you know I'm not dead. I was completely wrong.", even though obviously they couldn't see my post.

    I'm currently still going through and making activity logs (I'm mainly doing people who have posted under 25 times as I'm too lazy to do like 10 pages worth of posts). I have completed ones for Cat, Ghost and tale. I've just started one for cstar. Please let me know if these are actually helpful or if I'm just wasting my time. Also any feedback, edits I make or ideas to improve it would also be welcome. I know I'm not the best at analysis so I figure by doing this I can help make tools to make analysis easier for everyone else.
     
  19. Lauriam I hope I didn't keep you waiting...

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    Actually, Midnight, in terms of helpfulness (and easy reads) How would you feel about making a log for Krowley? I mean, I know he's dead and he only had five posts, but I think it might be a helpful little add-on to see exactly what it was in those five posts that allegedly got the Mafia so worked up. And yes, I do think the logs can be very helpful. :)

    Also, is it possible to get a Votal sometime, @Makaze or @Ars Nova ? If I remember correctly, the only vote still standing is one for Cat, but I don't remember if that's the case. Please and thank you! :)
     
  20. Ars Nova Just a ghost.

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    Y'all wanna votal say 'lynch that'
    • Cat~ - 2 (Mish, Ghost)
    • Marushi - 1 (Calxiyn)
    • . : tale : . - 2 (Judge Sunrose, al215)

    Day 2 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 5.