Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

(hey)

Here's my question. Who hyped up Krowley as a "good player" so we felt his loss when he was killed? I feel like that maybe, just maybe, the mafia team were trying to hype up Krowley for this blow. If we can figure out those, maybe we can get a clue?

I remember at least @Mish doing this

 

I mean before he died, when he posted that big long post here: http://kh-vids.net/threads/mafia-the-classic-setup-game-1.154626/page-13#post-4281022

It was pretty evident that he was a threat.

I'm trying to find the others who talked about Krowley after that post. Before it I don't see anything, but I may have missed something.

And I don't mean exaggerated as in not true, I just think that there was a lot more fear then there needed to be. Obviously, the Mafia thought Krowley would get more active like he did and would get a sub, and if they knew the sub wouldn't be as good they wouldn't bother. But they saw from even that post alone he was skilled and knew what he was doing, and was afraid he would be active and stick around longer. I think his death was done out of maybe even paranoia in that regard: Someone wasn't thinking clearly and didn't realize Krowley wasn't sticking around. I personally assumed he'd be subbed out regardless of that big post, but someone didn't lol.

 

Hmm, that's a very interesting thought. I'll admit, I don't remember this other time, because of my selective memory. Regardless, this would be a really interesting mind game to try and pull. You're suggesting that the Mafia intended to make the town start to feel a bit panicked over the loss of a potential analyst? You should follow through on that thought. Maybe read over page 14 and see who all did comment on his skills. However, don't discount him completely. Krowley... Always dies early. Idk why, it doesn't seem fair. XD But I do believe that Krowley's skills have merit to them. Still though, follow this theory through and cross-check the names you come up with against the people you find suspicious now. You could be onto something. :)[DOUBLEPOST=1467604732][/DOUBLEPOST]

Okay, so you're saying that the Mafia targeted Krowley because of his analysis, and not because people had been exaggerating his skills and the Mafia got spooked by a "Misty is scary" misconception?

 

Midnight said she liked the analysis, which is a big compliment from her considering she's been doing a lot of work this game.

Also I found this post from Heart, which I thought was interesting. My theory was that Krowley was killed also to point a finger at Al and I, and she already started pointing that finger before he died. If she wanted to put some doubt into people's minds and come back to it later, saying something like "I said this earlier, but now that Krowley's dead...", I think that it was apart of the plan. She wanted to say that so when Krowley did die she could remind everyone.
Unfortunately, Heart didn't stay around, but I think that if she did she would have brought that up again. There's no way to be sure, but I'm just going on what I've seen.

Now that I've seen that post, I actually think that it may be Heart/Marushi we should be lynching this time.

##Unvote: Midnight Star
##Vote: Marushi

I still have my suspicion about Midnight, but this outweighs that. Regardless we need to decide to lynch someone today.

 

I didn't mean to make him sound like a bad player! I just mean hyped in general like "oooh I can't wait for Krowley's analyseseseseseses

I'll go back and check it out but it might just be a dumb route to go entirely. I've never exactly been good with my leads in the past (by that I mean previous games)

 

On that note I really want people to take a look at that post Heart made carefully and figure out if you agree or disagree.[DOUBLEPOST=1467604799][/DOUBLEPOST]Sorry lol, I posted before I was finished[DOUBLEPOST=1467604896][/DOUBLEPOST]

Sorry, I'm saying it's both. That one Mafia did it because of skill, one Mafia did it because of paranoia/they got nervous and scared, and that same Mafia, who I'm now thinking was Heart/Is You, was the one who wanted to set up Al and I, but didn't get a chance to remind everyone of her previous post before she got subbed out

 

Here's what i got on Cat~, she was trying to weed out the members who wouldn't be a help to the town which is why she voted for Krowley and she also made that google chart that showed who voted for who, but she still left that vote up even after he made the post with his analysis. Then after he was killed she said that his post was thorough and could be a threat to the mafia. So there may be a chance she is mafia

I haven't finished going through the thread comepletely, 4 or 5 pages left, what I read about seems to be kind of contradicting.

 

Oh, don't worry, Cstar, I wasn't accusing you of thinking Krowley was a bad player. XD At least, I wasn't intending to. Sorry. XD

And lol, Calxiyn, okay. I would just let that slide for now and wait for more people to post, see where everyone stands, but tomorrow is a holiday for some players, and several people have already said that they're going to be busy tomorrow, so I suppose I'll have to post some of my theory now. XD Standby, it's gonna take a little while. XD

 

Well the AMERICANS have a holiday, but I would say that our biggest analysers, at least right now are Al and Midnight, who are doing a good job and lucky for us, are in England and probably won't be celebrating the fourth of July haha. But we of course, we'll see.

But Makaze did say he'd extend it, so hopefully he will. But I'll be on a plane if we dip into Tuesday a bit so I want to make sure my opinions on things and my votes are all ready. We still DO have tomorrow though for those of us who are not here.

 

This isn't my final vote, only a place holder because based on what i just read and posted and also partly on Cal's post on the last page Cat~ is suspicious to me. I know the day isn't over yet but if there is no extension i don't want to end up not at least voting like last time since someone is going to die.

##Vote: Cat~

 

(you guys post way too fast, I just can't catch a break)

Uhm, I feel that the Krowley Conundrum is being a bit overblown? Frankly, it could be much simpler than that. My humble theory is that, after the Krowl man's 'wake up' post, some people got a pro-town read from him, saying stuff like "ok look, he could be valuable". You can combine this with the fact that he never got around to accusing many players, and boom, you get probable cause juice right there. Maybe they thought he'd be a hard candidate for people to vote on again, who knows. The point is, it was likely a simple, efficient move on the Mafia's part, imo, instead of some intricate framing scheme or what have you.

On the subject of reads, my biggest suspicion right now is (you guessed it) Tale. His last defense was very weak, barely addressing my points at all. What I have on him can be seen on my previous two posts, plus him being vote #2 on Krowley's failed wagon. For what it's worth, I think he's a good player who's flying low on the radar, so I'll ##Vote: . : tale : . for now.

Runner ups go to Mixt and Cal, but I simply don't have the time to go into their cases right now. Some of us have to sleep. And if you must know, my biggest town/pro-town reads right now are Marushi (welcome to the game!), Al, and Mish. I also considered Midny at first, but I've been second-guessing that thought. The rest are still a bit hard for me to read though, as I don't see any consistent flags yet. Expect more tomorrow.

 

Alrighty, @Calxiyn. I want to start by saying sorry, I was intentionally trying to make you panic there, and that might have been mean. So... Yeah, sorry about that. XD

Secondly, I want to say that I didn't suspect you almost at all during my first read-through of day 1. It wasn't until I got to your post defending Al so vehemently and without any provocation that I was thrown into a loop of confusion. See, before that, I suspected Al. He wasn't my top Mafia read, he was my second top Mafia read. But then... Your post. It was so aggressive and just kind of out-of-the-blue.

And now, obvi I can’t not wall, no matter how hard I try. :/ But! I’ve put my detailed cases in Spoilers, and I’ll try to post a brief summary for each below the spoiler for those who don’t want to read or are too busy to. Here are my two cases (Read the titles with Maka Albarn’s voice, plz) ^.^

[DOUBLEPOST=1467612054][/DOUBLEPOST]Aaaaaaaaand of course the code was messed up. XD Ugh, sorry everybody. I... I tried... XD [DOUBLEPOST=1467612261][/DOUBLEPOST]Oh my gosh.... I am so blonde! Of course the coding was messed up... I STINKING PUT THEM IN QUOTES INSTEAD OF SPOILERS!!!

To be fair, it's 2AM now... I tried, everybody. XD I really did. Now I'm going to go to bed in shame. I'll be back first thing in the morning. Try not to laugh too hard at me, please. XD

 

You also put your vote under the spoiler tab which I wouldn't really recommend.

And there is one big reason I can't fully agree with your analysis, one that Cat already pointed out so I don't know if it helps to hide it away because the mafia probably already saw it:

There is a possibility that Cal isn't mafia, but is instead the cop and knows Al's alignment and was being a bit too obvious with trying to clear his name.

 

(Does going to bed count if I just immediately get back on my phone after doing so?) xD

You're right that my vote ended up in the quoted tab. That was SO not supposed to happen. It was supposed to be:

Spoiler: Theory
Not Spoiler: summary
Spoiler: next theory
Not Spoiler: summary
Conclusion
Vote.

Instead everything got wrapped in the first quote. My bad everybody.

I'm starting to remember how stupid this game always makes me feel. XD

As for Calxiyns potential role as a cop, yes that might explain her certainty about al, but I feel like if she were a Town-Aligned role, she wouldn't be so quick to throw other people under the bus. I do not believe she is the cop, though of course I could ve wrong. However, if she were the cop, I don't think she would be so quick or aggressive when it comes to accusing people of being Mafia. I think she would be playing a more investigative game as opposed to the more threatening and defensive game she's playing now. Of course, this all just comes from me conparing this style to that of her previous games, and anyone can change, but still.

If my bad coding nulls my vote:

##vote: Calxiyn

 

Sorry for the delay, IRL stuff + somewhat unnecessary math. Also I've so far only read a handful of the posts made while I was writing this, but I don't think that changes the content of this little homework assignment and they will be read. Anyway..

@Cat~'s role started as Blaine's, but it's hard to lift anything from that. I actually had plans to put Blaine up on later parts of house cleaning voting because he would be too hard to analyse. If you think he's Mafia then you see his posts as being overly defensive or aggressive. If you think he's town then that's just the way he is and he hasn't adjusted properly to how this game is played. @Cat~ has a few moments of interest though.

First is the push for a no lynch when we thought that was still an option. I can understand a Town player not wanting to risk the 10/13 (~77%) chance of killing a Town. But as Makaze even pointed out in the OP, lynching is a good thing. On the surface it is the only way to remove Mafia (which the Day 1 odds of ~23% aren't that terrible). And the earliest Mafia can win is after 4 Days with a count of 3/5. But if we fail to lynch only once that fourth day could end with 3/6, still a victory but now with more faces for them to hide behind. But it was still more than 3x more likely to kill a Town player. and the instinct not to kill an innocent, especially with so little information to go off of, is pretty strong.

Second, when discussing the possibility of Krowley being replaced from inactivity there was this post.

This is a rather odd sentiment. The sub ought to have a chance to prove themselves when convenient, but all actions done in that role are important in figuring out what that role is. Plus it wasn't even a significant factor on the Krowley case from what I gather. Krowley was only being voted because of the inactivity housecleaning. And that movement was mostly a combination of loss aversion (i.e. we aren't losing valuable Town players) and sending the Mafia a message that they can't go inactive. I at least didn't get the sense that people really thought inactive = Mafia, only a somewhat higher chance that we want to snuff out. Certainly not suspicion to a degree that an active sub couldn't fix almost instantly. All of that to say, the far more applicable case is @Cat~'s, and trying to escape the shadow of Blaine who was being seriously looked at. But also as said in the quote most of that stigma was already gone at that point. It could be an attempt to solidify that distance, or Cat may have thought Krowley was in more trouble than I did.

Really I feel like I'm making mountains out of molehills.
And in part because of being away today (which is cool) that's really all I've got to add on @Cat~. Other points have already been publicly discussed. It's all pretty small stuff, but it's mostly the quantity that concerns me.


On another note though, we are finally getting things moving and I feel we need more time for the analyses to come to a meaningful place. So I'm going to ##Vote: Extend Day as mentioned here. (Not sure if the ## Syntax is expected on that, but it can't hurt)

 

Oh wow, it got active while I was asleep. Um, this is going to take a while to make sense of and since it's usually dead in the morning, I'll probably end up double posting. Sorry if that messes up everybody's alerts.

But one quick thing I want to say immediately...

Excuse me? It was me who made the vote log not Cat~ and I just updated it with all votes made so far.

 

Hi Midnight! :)

Something I just thought of, for the group:

Cop, whoever you may be, if you are not Calxiyn I strongly advise you do not come forward. Nobody has so far, and perhaps I don't need to say this, but still. Better safe than sorry. Ic Cal claims to be the cop and someone else is cop instead, don't reveal yourseld to clear things up, you'll just be painting yourself as a target instead.

Lol, if Calxiyn IS the cop or if the cop already was doing this, my apologies. XD[DOUBLEPOST=1467639225][/DOUBLEPOST]Ugh sorry for the typos everyone. I just woke up and it's hard to type this out on my phone. XD

 

So I had a check back through and there was actually much less hype than I thought there was. All that really happened early on is we decided to ignore his inactivity due to how he has played in the past but there wasn't actually that much hyping going on and when it got to the end of the day and he was still inactive, that's when people started voting for him. See below:

This leads me to believe that the main reason he could be perceived as a thread was that last post, which did clearly demonstrate that if he got into it, he was capable of some decent analysis.

Also I don't think we should lynch Cal today. I mean I'm not actually convinced she is town and she has acted a bit strangely and suspiciously BUT with the cop talk going around if she is town, I don't think she will survive the night. If she does survive the night then we can relook at lynching her but by then at the very least if she is cop, she'd have one more read. So while I'm finding her behaviour odd, I do NOT believe we should lynch her.

 

Good points. I see Cal viewing this page now, so I'll leave my vote where it is until she has a chance to respond.

In the meantime, Midnight, while you're here, what are your opinions on Cat's alignment? If you've already stated them, I apologize. XD

 

Ughh, I don't know, this is difficult. To be honest, I'm not feeling certain about her in either direction. I'm a bit suspicious of her but at the same time I'm not fully convinced she is mafia either.

So to try and help me make a decision I went through and made a log of all the posts she has made and their contents. She has done some things which are bad for town and suspicious like wanting a 'no lynch' and mentioning the cop butt she's also tried to be helpful so I don't know.

LINK - So here is my link to my vote log and my activity log for Cat (see the different tabs), hopefully this will help everyone to form their own opinions.