Okay, I'm currently really regretting saying that I'd give top threes on both town and mafia because I'm looking through the thread and really struggling to do so. I did only say "might" though. Instead of top threes to make it easier for myself I might just go through people and say my current thoughts. Also I don't really have the best track record of getting it right so this might be completely wrong. I mentioned before about Cat that I'm a bit suspicious because of the pushing for 'no lynch' and the cop speculation. However even then I'm not certain because I can understand the no lynch thing as it is risky to lynch someone on D1 (and I think she's pushed for that in previous games when she was town) and the cop speculation might have been an innocent mistake as it could be one way explain Cal's strange actions. I am not going to vote for Cat just yet as she already has votes and I don't want to bring it nearer to a hard lynch, as well as like I said I'm not completely convinced she is mafia. Al215, I'm not suspicious of at all because I have agreed with a lot of his posts as they make sense, he's fairly active and helpful. It is worth noting that on the first day, he did accuse several people and change his vote a bit but he did justify all this with good reasons. Marushi is a strange one for me. I've actually been a bit suspicious of Marushi for a bit but that was just because of a feeling. I have nothing to back that up with and the more I look at her posts, the more pro-town she seems. I don't trust her entirely because of this feeling but I am not going to push for a lynch on something as insubstantial as that. Still I don't think it's a bad thing to have some people to doubt the really pro-town players as after all it is still possible they could be mafia. It is early days yet and far too soon to confirm someone as a townie without them dying. I really want tale to post more. I didn't find the unvote thing that he did suspicious at all, however I'm having a hard time judging him. He's only posted a total of 4 times in Day 2 and we are a good proportion of the way through the day. Hearing his suspicions were good but I'd like to hear more before making up my mind. Cal's actions I've found a bit strange and suspicious, especially her post defending Al. It seems really unusual for anyone to be that sure of anyone's alignment and it wasn't even like Al was under fire at the time. There have been a few other things in her posts that have made me look twice as well (I'd need to go through her posts and find them). HOWEVER I maintain that we shouldn't lynch her today as I think that she will be killed by the mafia tonight IF she is town. If she is not killed then I think we should put her under more scrutiny but today (D2) we should not lynch her. That leaves Judge, cstar, Mixt and Ghost. I might go away a bit and talk about them later. Ghost, tale and cstar, thank you for responding to my question, that was helpful.
...I knew that was coming, I knew it. Umm, it's past midnight now so would you mind if I had a sleep on it and got back to you in the morning? A lot of people I'm really not sure about, I'm sat so much on the fence my bum hurts. I just really don't want to prematurely decide that someone is mafia or town. At the moment, anyone could be either. However that is not a good way to play the game and the best way to progress is for everyone to share their thoughts about who they currently suspect as even if wrong this gives us a lot of material to work with. Off the top of my head my highest mafia read is Cat~ as she has done some things that don't help town such as suggest a no lynch (when we thought we could do that) and also she cop speculated. I'm not completely certain though as I can see her logic as on d1 the chances of us hitting a town member are very high as well as the cop thing might have been an honest mistake. My biggest town read is al215, basically because I've agreed with most of what he's said as it makes sense to me. He is also actively posting and helping town. However, I'm not completely discounting the possibility of him being mafia, he could just be quite a good player. I might do a top 3 of both tomorrow but I'd need to think that though a lot more.
I'm not completely convinced tale is guilty but we still don't have that much from him to go on, most of his posts are from the first day and I would really like him to respond to the stuff that has been posted today. I don't really just want him to post in his own defence, I would like his top town and mafia reads. I would like to hear more from everyone you've mentioned actually. Additionally I have completed activity logs on all of those three. Hmm... @. : tale : . @Ghost @cstar What are your top mafia and top town reads?
Doing a activity log like I have been doing is a bit pointless because only 2 of his posts really have anything of interest. What may be useful is summarising the key points that Krowley looked at. So Krowley's big analysis post looked particularly at: The total number of posts of each person (both highest and lowest). He said about the people with the most posts, "This could mean they've been the most helpful and instructive, OOORRR that they have quite the silver tongue with these types of situations. They've been the most involved yes, and may either be very skilled at this game, or wish to keep the game headed in a direction that distracts from their own selves." At the time of his post, highest was me and Blaine, this will be different now. Most Changed Votes - The people who point the most fingers This might be to deter suspicion off themselves - at the time of his post Al215 and Cal had pointed the most fingers. These things may be different people and may be worth looking at. That was the other post that might be of interest. I don't think I've ever been called devious before, that amused me.
To be honest, I probably overreacted there a little bit as I saw you talking about the cop role and just had the instinctual reaction of no, this is bad, I need to stop it. I only reread your post after I posted and found that it wasn't as bad as I initially thought but still we really should not mention it at all. Mafia might take clues or get ideas from what we say, even if it is said in complete innocence. Sooo if possible I'd like to try and steer the conversation as far away from Cops as possible. Tbh yeah, I'm the same, I don't have the best track record of getting it right either. I found the dead chat for one of the previous ones I was in (I was town) and I was posting in there saying "please please don't go back and use my suspicions just because you know I'm not dead. I was completely wrong.", even though obviously they couldn't see my post. I'm currently still going through and making activity logs (I'm mainly doing people who have posted under 25 times as I'm too lazy to do like 10 pages worth of posts). I have completed ones for Cat, Ghost and tale. I've just started one for cstar. Please let me know if these are actually helpful or if I'm just wasting my time. Also any feedback, edits I make or ideas to improve it would also be welcome. I know I'm not the best at analysis so I figure by doing this I can help make tools to make analysis easier for everyone else.
COP SPECULATING IS BAD. DON'T DO IT. You can do it in your head but don't talk about it. We do not want to give the mafia any clues to their identity.
Partially just posting so Nova can make an announcement without it merging BUT I also have almost finished doing an activity log for Ghost. LINK (look at the tabs at the bottom)
:( I spent ages on that and just got an 'alright', now you're asking me about someone else?? Opinions are hard. Sorry, I know I comparatively didn't give you very much but I'm just finding it very difficult to make my mind up about people. I'll have a look through at tale's posts and see what I can decide. I can say right now in that I don't find him sus because of his delay in unvoting you because that was actually reasonable and I can also understand him not feeling necessary to explain his reasons when he did unvote you. I'm finding it really strange when Cal is talking about herself in third person and as if she didn't know her own role. I mean I understand why she's doing that, putting herself in our shoes, but still it's weird. Would it be a good idea later today to ask for everyone's top three town reads and top three mafia reads? (I ask this knowing full well that I will struggle to be able to do this)
Ughh, I don't know, this is difficult. To be honest, I'm not feeling certain about her in either direction. I'm a bit suspicious of her but at the same time I'm not fully convinced she is mafia either. So to try and help me make a decision I went through and made a log of all the posts she has made and their contents. She has done some things which are bad for town and suspicious like wanting a 'no lynch' and mentioning the cop butt she's also tried to be helpful so I don't know. LINK - So here is my link to my vote log and my activity log for Cat (see the different tabs), hopefully this will help everyone to form their own opinions.
So I had a check back through and there was actually much less hype than I thought there was. All that really happened early on is we decided to ignore his inactivity due to how he has played in the past but there wasn't actually that much hyping going on and when it got to the end of the day and he was still inactive, that's when people started voting for him. See below: This leads me to believe that the main reason he could be perceived as a thread was that last post, which did clearly demonstrate that if he got into it, he was capable of some decent analysis. Also I don't think we should lynch Cal today. I mean I'm not actually convinced she is town and she has acted a bit strangely and suspiciously BUT with the cop talk going around if she is town, I don't think she will survive the night. If she does survive the night then we can relook at lynching her but by then at the very least if she is cop, she'd have one more read. So while I'm finding her behaviour odd, I do NOT believe we should lynch her.
Umm, could I pleaase get one too?
Oh wow, it got active while I was asleep. Um, this is going to take a while to make sense of and since it's usually dead in the morning, I'll probably end up double posting. Sorry if that messes up everybody's alerts. But one quick thing I want to say immediately... Excuse me? It was me who made the vote log not Cat~ and I just updated it with all votes made so far.
That might have been an innocent mistake but I agree that speculating who the identity of the cop is a really bad idea and will only help mafia.
In hindsight, I was a bit umm well it was less defensive and more um irritated? (Not necessarily with you, more how do I respond) I don't know. But I can see what you mean though. Okay so normally I find it really difficult to form opinions and everyone's analysis looks amazing and yeah. I didn't like the logic that you used in that post and I was really struggling to put into words why. I first read your post at like 3pm (Don't know what that is EST) but due to stuff happening I couldn't get onto respond to you until I posted and even then, I was really struggling to explain why i didn't like your logic. Yeah, I said that far too emotionally? So I don't blame you for voting me for that. I was really harsh to you too, sorry!!
Um I think what Judge is asking is why you felt a need to vote even when he had several votes on him? Because you were leaving did you think that just saying your suspitions meant nothing if you didn't act on your word by placing an actual vote? Do you think if someone just says a suspition but doesn't act on it and vote it doesn't count? I think that's the general gist. Tbh I kinda understand you as I have to leave before the day ends too (timezones are awkward sometimes) and before I go, I usually want to put in a vote or make sure all my feelings are known because I know I won't be able to impact the outcome any more after I leave. It was just troublesome this time as your additional vote was a factor meaning it got to hard lynch must factor that we would have liked. (Did that make any sense?) Oh additionally I really like the point you made that both Al and Cal are unlikely to be mafia together because if they were that would be far too obvious and I don't think Cal is that stupid. Cal might be mafia or Al might be mafia but I doubt they both are.
I'm not sure I quite agree with your analysis. Um, I'm not saying that Al is mafia, in fact I've agreed with a lot of what he said so far as it makes sense and I don't find him suspicious at all. However, I dislike this method of proving Al's innocence, I'm just not that great at analysis so I hope I can explain why. I have several problems with this. Okay first, I'm not convinced that this was an "amateur" move on the part of the mafia. Yes, the reasons for them killing him are easily guessed but that doesn't make it a bad move on their part and it doesn't really narrow down the suspects for us. Krowley was a member who had the abilities to be a threat to mafia but at the same time, he hadn't really done anything in the first day, if we look back on his first few posts he hasn't really given anything that we could analyse, whereas nearly everyone else has. Tbh it seems like a good move on the part of mafia as he gave off the feeling that even though he was quiet D1, he wouldn't stay that way. I said before, it might not be that that his accusations were right, it might be that they wanted to take him out before he had chance to accuse them. Were you expecting us all to be like the two people who he accused must be mafia?? Okay and 2, I don't know how you could be so confident that Al is town. If you're town, you don't know his alignment therefore there is still a chance he could be mafia. Just because you like him shouldn't blind you to this fact. Also I refuse anyone can know exactly how the other person will play. Especially if someone is mafia, they might intentionally kill someone that you wouldn't expect them to. He wouldn't kill someone quiet? How do you know? Also it was implied that Krowley wouldn't stay quiet. You've taken a huge risk in defending someone to this extent and tbh I'm not sure even why you felt the need, nobody was really suspecting him at all before this. This early in the game, I don't think you should be that certain about anybody. Furthermore, the mafia are probably very new? This is a hell of an assumption to make and if we take this as truth, it could completely blind us to if there is a more experienced player on the team. I'm really sorry about this, I feel kinda mean, you put a lot of effort into this and like I said, I don't actually suspect Al at all but this entire post really irks me.
Hmm I can see why they targeted Krowley, as of yet he hasn't really provided us with much, but he had the capability to be a big problem to mafia later on in the game. This is kinda why I'd liked to have discussed Krowley's last post yesterday even if we didn't act on it but I guess that's at least partially hindsight talking there. It is possible they took out Krowley because one of his suspicions in his last post was correct, however this also might not be the case and they took him out before he could start suspecting the actual mafia. We should probably look at his last post and discuss it, but we shouldn't treat his suspicions as confirmed just because he was town.
I bet you thought you'd won :P
Me neither ;~: They don't ever let you forget him.
That does sound helpful in that case. Do I need to do anything in order to make this improvement? Ah, yes, I remember now, I'd set the course before but I'd forgotten the exact details. Are you enjoying it? I'm up to date with the manga though I need to catch up with the anime.
