Didn't she?
You went from 'willing to consolidate' to 'wouldn't vote for anyone else' very fast.[DOUBLEPOST=1415658637][/DOUBLEPOST]Actually, not two seconds ago you said you were flat out agaisnt lynching The Fuk? today. Logically, if you keep your vote on Spike, you increase the chances of at least one of the people you want lynched getting the vote. I don't see your reasoning here. @Mish
The Fuk? is already at a soft lynch. Just so you know.[DOUBLEPOST=1415657974][/DOUBLEPOST]@Mish ^
For one, my plan was based on least contribution, not least posts. Spike has contributed more thought than The Fuk? despite fewer posts. For two, the question came from me, the plan creator. I since presented an actual reason to think The Fuk? might be mafia aside from 'not posting enough'. If you think Spike is more suspicious, please explain why beyond post count.[DOUBLEPOST=1415657172][/DOUBLEPOST]@h y u g e: How do you feel about my case now that I've explained it more thoroughly?
@Mish, same question please. How do you feel about the The Fuk? lynch?[DOUBLEPOST=1415654013][/DOUBLEPOST]On that note... @Spike, please post. You are under the required posts for the day and have yet to catch up with events as far as I can tell.
@Highlandeɼ: Please comment on the The Fuk? case.[DOUBLEPOST=1415653387][/DOUBLEPOST]That said, @Marushi, your choice is valid and you don't need to vote. Just some food for thought.
I think it's safe to say that there is no chance of town hard lyching anyone today. What if mafia do come in and commandeer the vote at the last minute? All three of the people they can do that to are low contributors. We don't lose much. What do we gain?[DOUBLEPOST=1415652115][/DOUBLEPOST]lynching*
She intentionally edited that in to point out that I used should have said 'assume' instead of 'conclude'. What is the point unvoting Beau at this stage when you don't have someone else to vote for?
My casting votes on people with a plan rather than real suspicion, we are creating the substantial information you're talking about. If you do not put any effort into creating substantial information, you are a dead weight to town. You ignored me when I told you to give me your opinion of my plan. By doing so, you have opted not to consolidate with your fellow teammates. Consolidating on a lynch is when you choose to vote for another lynch target after realizing that your own target is not going to be lynched that day. If you are alone in your case on someone, there are two logical options: Try to convince others to join you, or consolidate on someone else's case. These are the only options you have because you have already gotten a reaction from your target and the audience, and there is simply nothing else you can do that day. You have refused to do either of these things. Why consolidate instead of sticking to your guns? That's a fair question. Because voting for someone who you are sure is mafia is not as useful as getting information about everyone at once with a lynch vote. You can hold on to your suspicions. But what will you do if you get a lynch on Mish and you are wrong? You are acting like you know 100% certain that she is mafia right now. What you are doing with Mish is called 'tunneling'. Tunnel vision is what I did to you last game. Remember how that worked out? There was a difference between our methods on Day 2. Where you stubbornly insist on only voting for people you suspect, I conceded to reason in on the second say and voted for Ben to consolidate with my teammates instead of waging a one man war based on my personal feelings. And guess what? Ben happened to be guilty! Your attitude of 'only voting for your personal strongest read and ignoring everyone else' is counter-productive. It is counter-productive because it helps no one. You have a single vote sitting on Mish and no one else is with you. Mish is not providing you with info in a defense. Others are not joining you now because you are not convincing them. When the day ends, you will not see Mish die and find out her role. You will not have convinced anyone of your position. Any information you gain will have been information the other people in the game found, not you. You are shooting your own foot in your one-man-team play. You have intentionally added buffer posts instead of answering people directly. You have flat out ignored specific questions like mine about my plan. That is either a mafia tell, or an uncooperative tell. If the former, we are right to lynch you. If the latter, you will drag us down and mafia will kill someone else at night knowing that you present a small threat, like they did with me last game. Please respond seriously to this entire post and the plan. Give us a reason to think you are playing on town's side.[DOUBLEPOST=1415647238][/DOUBLEPOST]By casting* Sorry.[DOUBLEPOST=1415648205][/DOUBLEPOST]and on the second day*
Everyone: Please remember, my conclusion was meant as a gamble. I am aware of the risks involved. I think it matters despite that because I think my arguments are compelling enough to change the flow of votes. If you have a problem with that, please answer the questions above/below. Do you suspect Beau? Do you think my reasoning is wrong? If my reasons don't convince you, then reconsider your original reasons for voting him. Our original reason for choosing Beau was because he was inactive. He is no longer inactive. He has posted more than several other members by now and actually made some progress in thought process. And for substance, his reasons for not contributing on Day 1 without pressure make sense and explain his behavior in a town capacity. Likelihood of mafia letting him stay at a soft lynch without countering in some way: Not very likely. Likelihood of his not contributing being a Mafia tell: Not very likely, because he explained it and it makes sense from a certain town perspective. Still inactive enough to be policy lynched: No. More information gained if we let it sit and lynch him: No. My post was meant as a gambit that would make one thing clear: If you want to lynch Beau, you are taking a gamble against the odds. A gamble that will not teach you more than you already know. Knowing you are going against the odds and will learn nothing is all you need to know to jump off the train. I'm sorry for my wording. The point isn't so much that Beau is confirmed town as that it is rational to assume he is town until further notice. Please consider it. In defense of broad strokes, if you disagree with my reasoning, you should post about it. Broad strokes tend to draw more attention than individual points, especially waffling points. Waffling means saying one thing, such as 'I think Makaze is mafia', and adding things like, 'but I'm not sure'. People who second-guess themselves tend to inspire a 'moderate' feeling, and it's hard to disagree with a moderate feeling, so those types of posts don't get many responses compared to convicted one. Half-assed statements don't get anywhere, and that's just how it is. It seems silly to be so serious during RVS (Random Voting Stage), but we won't ever get out of RVS if we don't do silly things and then see what happens when we take them seriously.[DOUBLEPOST=1415605535][/DOUBLEPOST] On the first point, I am the town Darling, which is a role that was specified in the OP of the thread, and it says that I am someone who is mod-confirmed to be town from the start of the game. When he said "No it isn't" he meant that my role does not get rid of the cheating associated with editing posts, and after consulting him about it, I have to agree that editing is a bad practice for any role. On the second point, that is a good line of thinking and I hope you can do something with it.
Do you suspect Beau, hyuge? It's important to realize that if people follow my lead, it's of their own free will, because they are not confident enough to make decisions on their own. If you disagree with my logic in assuming that Beau is town, please address my logic. Yes, I may be wrong. Do you think I am? I have not edited a post since the last time it was mentioned. Double posts add edit timestamps. Try it yourself.
I considered that, and so I waited... Quite a while. About six hours. If people are going to be this inactive, then I won't be able to turn the vote around if I post tomorrow. It's a measure of practicality. We can safely conclude that Beau is not mafia, but that doesn't mean he's in the clear. It just makes it less likely and thus worth thinking about alternatives.
I am saying that we should vote for people even if we don't have really good reasons because that in itself gives us information. If you understand that votes have value period, then you are being dumb. You already know that there is something you can do—you can vote and see how people react. If it's good enough for others to do, why not you? I said we should push a soft lynch because if we do, we learn even more. Mafia won't stay or contribute to a really dangerous wagon for their own, but town will. It adds a process of elimination. That way, we can learn if our votes are right.[DOUBLEPOST=1415598794][/DOUBLEPOST] Logic problem. Mafia are significantly less likely to be on a lynch for their own. It is possible that one of the voters is a mafia bussing on their own, but that isn't necessary in most cases, and the logical move for mafia is to push another lynch instead. Especially early in the game when mafia often don't need to vote at all to get a lynch. You've got it right other than that, though. Votes are nearly always valuable.[DOUBLEPOST=1415599200][/DOUBLEPOST]I'm going to take a gamble and say that if Beau were Mafia, Mafia would have done more to defend him by now. They would have either defended him directly by challenging the wagon or raised Spike up to a soft lynch to avoid lynching him. Because neither has happened, We can safely conclude that Beau is not Mafia. Going by my previous plan, I believe we should vote for the person who has contributed the least after them, unless someone has a real case. Going by posts as well as substance, The Fuk? is the least active/cooperative, with only three posts and one vote without good reasons. ##Unvote: Beau ##Vote: The Fuk?
@Beau: Please read this post and give your opinion on it.
If you build it, I will come.[DOUBLEPOST=1415588180][/DOUBLEPOST]Or so I would say, if it would connect to the server...[DOUBLEPOST=1415589951][/DOUBLEPOST]Got it.
@Trigger @The Fuk? Trigger, it won't do to disappear after seeing The Fuk's question. The Fuk?, Trigger wants your scum/town reads before the day ends.[DOUBLEPOST=1415585953][/DOUBLEPOST]And that doesn't mean wait until the last possible minute, either. Please give them if you have them. If you don't have them, then you are being too quiet and might deserve to be lynched for inactivity like Beau. Please give your opinion of my plan for good measure.
Mish is correct.[DOUBLEPOST=1415583497][/DOUBLEPOST]@Trigger: Can't you think of any specific questions?
@Trigger: Please respond to my post? I see you lurking...
One more question. Why did you unvote Beau just then instead of waiting for when you voted for someone else?
I'm confused because you said you agreed with me, but this ontradicts what I said. Please read this post and tell me where you think I am wrong: [DOUBLEPOST=1415573520][/DOUBLEPOST]contradicts* my bad.
