Cat~ has raised very interesting points, and while I'm mostly inclined to agree with her, I'd like a second opinion on the matter. I just want to see if I'm not the only one who thinks she might be on to something here, y'know. For instance, up until now, I had the feeling that Vivi was town, but this got me rethinking a lot of my first impressions... Also, I just realized, in fact, that we're not accounting for Mish already being confirmed Mafia when building our prediction lists. This means it'd be safer and much more informative to try and narrow it down to a "3 suspects + Mish" formula instead of "4 suspects, not counting Mish" lol.
Your cooperation is much appreciated, pal. I was just left wondering in what way do you see TB's particular sloppiness manifesting itself. Perhaps you could pull up one or two quotes that stood out to you, to better clarify your point? Hypothetically speaking, what motivation would you imagine he'd have if it were indeed some form of strategy? What I know is that other players have placed their trust in What?'s innocence, and they make good points about it too. Lastly, what's your take on Haya and his suspicion of you? still curious about @Cat~ 's top 4
ALRIGHTY THEN, big news, mostly for me(?) Apparently, there are and have only ever been FOUR mafiosi, as opposed to what I assumed were five. Soooo, try to disregard MOST of what I said. Those lists I requested are still very much welcome, only now the number has indeed come down to 4. Carry on with your delightful evenings, gents. I apologize for the disturbance.
Minor correction, guys. We currently stand at 6 - 5 against the Mafia, which makes 11 surviving players in total. @ars nvoa I'm sorry but I will have to pull your ear once again, boss. We're already at MyLo/Mislynch and Lose, in case any of you failed to notice. Which means either a) Mish is lynched on Day Phase, Vig dies with little chance of scoring a mafia kill and we get stuck at eternal MyLo, or b) we risk it big time trying to nab a second mafioso, Vig takes out Mish and dies. Option b)'s risk certainly pays off, seeing as the correct guess gets us back up at LyLo. The number disadvantage actually works in our favor, in a way. Less town means more likelihood of any given survivor being mafia. If you leave Mish out, anyone you suspect has a whopping ~45% chance of being guilty. That's not to say these odds should be the deciding factor in your accusation/case against them, however. In the mean time, I have a question for @Cat~ and @Hayabusa (if you're neither of them but feel like answering too, your list is also welcome) Considering this information, which 5 people do you suspect the most/think make up the mafia? If you can't do all 5 it's fine, there's no need to push it, although listing more than 5 would be unadvisable.
Good morning, Mia-- wow, that's... quite a setback to wake up to, even more so on my first day here. Well then, I'd planned to post my impressions on this game, though in light of this lovely pair of blue corpses, I would do no less than thoroughly read through the previous Day. I can't believe I missed something that big. They can, if they find out the Vig's identity, but not their target's.[DOUBLEPOST=1410821979][/DOUBLEPOST]yo @ars nvoa, I didn't see you introducing me to the other players. we don't want them thinking I hijacked my way here or w/e
... Woops.
Vote: TheWorldThatNeverWas One step closer to victory, I hope.
That squaring sounds fishy, Mr. Square Enix-chan. i had to do it
First off, no, I never said I was certain of anything. More so when I deliberately put "The way I see it", which implies it was simply my subjective reading of that event. And yes, I didn't get the sense that BtD had given away his role either. Here's my thought process, in case you're interested: Initially, I was pretty sure the mafia would've chosen Hyuge or Marushi as their victim last night, which didn't happen. Then I saw they'd gotten the doctor and I thought "oh shoot, how did they even find out? They were either really lucky or pretty confident about some detail we missed, otherwise they would've just sticked to one of the two 'confirmed' townies." That was when I decided to take a look back to try and piece it together (tbh, it wasn't really that hard since BTD never posted that much). And then, well, you know the rest. Just to clear it up, I wasn't referring to when he fake(-but-not-really)-claimed doctorhood to avoid getting lynched, but rather Not going to lie here, and I didn't want to say this at first, although I may get mislynched, so whatever. I've always believed that the remaining two mafiosi had to be Ben and Princess (currently TWTNW), but now you're starting to make me question that belief. In spite of all this, your previous behavior stops me there, therefore I won't go as far as replacing you as one of my prime suspects, for now. It's also a bit unsettling, imo, that you'd say "based on further analysis" and just leave it at that. I'm really really sorry if I came off as rude at some point. My favorite word-picky neurons and I are practically sleeping on the keyboard. I have absolutely no idea how I even managed to write this wall of a post. /passes out
Had some rather inconvenient computer problems, and I thought I was going to get another warning for inactivity, but it's fixed now. The best I could do was check up on the thread with my crappy phone, ugh. Well then, straight to the point: I sort of agree with hyuge here, even though I'm currently in her crosshair. I don't have anything more to say in my own defense than what I already have, and she seems awfully determined, so yeah, just follow your heart. On that note, both my gut and reasoning point me towards the same person, of whom I've been suspicious for a while. To top it off, one of their claims stood out a lot during the last round, following BTD's murder. The way I see it, this particular player threw the bait, hoping it would attract the real doctor's attention, and succeeded. If anyone has counterarguments to this, don't hesitate to share them. Of course I'm talking about Princess/TWTNW.
Since I like to be such a huge dork, here's my idea for a silly but totally serious request. Image • Unspecified. I'm really more interested in an unusual outcome, so not knowing which image you'll use adds to that surprise. I also trust your taste in these things. Size • I'm ok with either. Colors • Yellow's where it's happening. I've found it to be such a difficult/interesting color to work with, and you seem to pull it off nicely already. Luminous • Other • Take your time. If you absolutely cannot work on such a vague request, please say so and I'll try to be more specific.
Hmm. At least one other thing seems clear to me at this point, which is that anyone who's in the top 4 suspects list is safe tonight (myself included), because they're either a) mafia, or b) the deciding mislynch. Mathematically speaking — and I hope this doesn't get me unfairly killed —, there is, at the very least, one correct guess in that list. We also have to take into account that most of those suspicions are pretty solid, despite lacking confirmation, which means our chances of nailing yet another mafioso are in fact fairly high. Bad news is, it could still go either way in the end. The hardest part right now might be deciding on who to vote first, possibly due to the "shock" of having lost such an invaluable asset, if you ask me. Obviously my vote is now more questionable than ever, so I'll leave it to you guys to give the first push.
Double-checking to see if no one's been left out today... Yeah, looks like everyone made it. Alrighty, since there's not that much to discuss this time around, Vote: Jayn lest I get penalized again.
Ok, looks like I only have until Nova shows up and ends this Day, so I'll try to make it quick, even though it does go against Nova's recommendation to not post after a confirmed hard lynch. It's for a good cause, at least. @skull joke I stand by everything I said in my last post. Turns out I was right and the mafia did switch up on their killing pattern, and went for Cat~. And now, we have even more confirmation from you that Jiku is mafia. Apparently. Let me tell you, your revelation was an incredible turn of events right there. To be honest, I would've probably voted for Princess before Jiku, although both were (and still are) on my blacklist. One thing I want to point out, however, is that you're putting your money on everyone that hasn't voted for her up until now, but I beg to differ. I didn't want to keep repeating myself, so once again, I haven't been able to get a single vote in after the first two days, either because of super early hard lynches, exhausting uni work, or a combination of both. I can't say for the others, but it certainly doesn't mean I never intended to vote her. That said, even after she's lynched, game's not going to turn into easy mode all of a sudden. We're still at a huge disadvantage not having taken out a single mafioso by Day 6 @Ars Nova someone forgot to update the thread title huh. Assuming below's right, Jiku's definitely a start, not to mention that now we could have a lot more intel to work on thanks to him. I'm just hoping the doc can miraculously save tonight's target to buy us more time. Well then, /inb4thenight
@h y u g e I'm not sure if it helps my apparently still dubious case, but the reason why I haven't had a chance to consolidate a proper vote for the past couple of Day Phases was because of some hard-lynching ninjas. I'm not even kidding, last time Cstar took it home right as I was writing my follow-up post. Aside from that, in light of those very same lynches and the lineup of remaining players, my current stance on the game is pretty much based on my initial feeling that the mafia would opt for a diversified posting strategy, but with some bias towards the middle posting-activity range. I'm sorry if anyone's bothered by this for some reason, but yes, I did take Jiku's table as reference. For one thing, regardless of her allignment (or even your qualms about numbers), it can be pretty darn useful. Moreover, I'm standing in a veeeery dangerous position on that list myself. While I don't suspect Jayn as much as a number of other players do — perhaps out of sympathy for her, I'm not entirely sure —, I feel like we could be the next in line to get night-murdered, should the mafia maintain the trend. To further elaborate on my theory, I believe the mafia's reasoning behind it is to lead the more frequent posters to turn against each other, while backed up by the fact that a lot of those players also decided to go for the inactive ones. After a while, you can see more and more people doubting people like below and Digi. Their ability to repeatedly shake off suspicions (as well as mine, I'll admit) ought to force the mafia to change tactics, if my guess is to be trusted. On that note, I agree with the mafia predictions some of you posted, to an extent. I'd say people like Marushi, Beau, godhead, burnitup, in no particular order, and maybe Princess or Jiku. I intend to place a vote later on, assuming the Roaring Twenties ninjas haven't struck again by the time I do. In addition, I don't know why this wasn't pointed out already, but if a person has voted for most, if not all players lynched so far, it doesn't mean they're mafia right off the bat. Some of you tried using this argument before, but it simply doesn't hold up, namely because that simply means they're only trying to advance the game. We can only blame rotten luck and/or the mafia. As mentioned way back, I think, the ones that don't vote or just try to steer off otherwise correct accusations using fishy reasons are more likely culprits, although the latter can't be confirmed until we actually kill the accused.
@hyuge-of-the-twilight @DigitalAtlas @skull joke, hold your horses for a minute. I've been juggling a powerpoint presentation and keeping up with this thread, jeez. Because of all of today's activity, I'll have you know it was relatively harder to go back and forth between posts in order to piece things together. Now, I'm still a bit on the edge regarding the current suspect, tale, not because I'm unsure about wether or not he's guilty, but because if I do vote him, lots of others that haven't posted up until this moment would be in trouble with the NovaBoss (like I almost was). In essence, I would gladly vote tale, were it not for the remaining missing players. We're risking the loss of at least more than a couple fellow townies.
Ah, yes, the judge becomes the defendant. Well you see, I can't really say much more than that adjusting to the university life has taken a toll on my internet availability, even though I still keep an eye on this thread. Unfortunately for me, I don't have an alibi as solid as Jayn's since I'm not staff, but feel free to ask my regular pestering victims, like Fork, or What?, and they HOPEFULLY noticed my near-lack of activity for the past couple of weeks or so. Nevertheless, I've made an effort to scrounge up a little bit of time at around the end of each day phase to post something of use. So far, my contribution has been that big finger-pointing at TB, which likely had its impact on his lynching. I still stand by my decision whole-heartedly, just read my first post again and you'll see my entire thought process. My point is, if anything seems very wrong/weird to me and I find it worth pointing out, such as with TwilightBlader and Bite The Dust, I speak my mind. So, is my case strong enough for you, chief? I honestly wish I could be a whole lot more active both here and elsewhere, but that's just how it's going. As for my Day 3 suspect, I got nothing substantial so far, sorry.
Dude, stop stealing my lines. No, but really, I was going to say basically the same thing. I'd only like to add that, even if you consider the possibility of a diversified posting strategy, Jiku's behavior in particular doesn't fit with either of the two main mafia goals: survival and incrimination. The first is really clear, given her perhaps over the top exposure, and I wouldn't be surprised if the mafiosi decided to take her out sooner than later -- should we not lynch her first, of course. As for the second goal, I'm not sure about you guys, but if she actually is trying to convince others to support her own votes, then I don't think she's doing a very good job at it. All in all, I still have another 16 players to suspect. Actually 15, 'cause below's pretty tight-- I mean what. Oh, and chin up, y'all. I feel bad about wrongly accusing TB too, but I by no means regret it. It's like Digi said, we're not going anywhere if we don't take our chances. That said, I won't vote for BTD. I think I'm going to Vote: . : tale_wind to give the current prime suspect a fighting chance, were I to trust his story, and also because DANG AM I LATE PLEASE DON'T DROPKICK ME NOVA AAA
See, before receiving my role PM, I considered a couple strategies I'd use for each alignment. Yours is exactly like the one I'd have used if I were mafia. That is, voting for myself, not using an RNG. The logic behind this is really simple: for one thing, you could be a mafioso expecting people to fall into your trap and not vote for you, while at the same time avoid raising suspicions towards you this early in the game. On the other hand, you could be a townie who's putting himself at risk and doing the exact opposite of what you should, in which case you're being extremely counter-intuitive because there's no need to throw the mafia off with bluffs of the sort sincee they already know everyone's alignment. Although it doesn't rule out the possibility that you're being an improductive town player, I personally find the former to be much more plausible and as such, I shall Vote: TwilightBlader. Seriously, you could've simply ran the generator again.
Woop boop deedoop
