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I had no idea we had a social group dedicated to bl2. speaking of which, y we no shoot shoot boom boom explosions anymoar. I really miss...

It wasn't just you, though. Mish helped a lot in that respect, you know.

Ah, yes, I was the tracker. To tell the truth, taking up the role from Lux was a bit difficult, but eh, I couldn't do much on my own either.

Hats off to you guys. That was one heck of a twist for me, and an amazing display of misdirection. Had me fooled completely. Sure, nailing the vig scored you big points, but I still can't get over the fact that Vivi of all people was Mafia.

Well played, everyone.

Those are all amazing observations, cstar. We ought to keep in mind that today, Mafia will do everything they can to help secure a mislynch and their win, while Town's efforts are aimed only at not losing. As a matter of fact, TB's single contribution today seemed to ignore all of our suspicion towards him, might I add.

I have no doubt about this now. Vote: TwilightBlader

HELLO FRIEND, HOW'S LIFE? MISERABLE ENOUGH? oh wait, did i just make a great pun by accident welp, must be my true calling

Less than a day left, my good people. I don't think we're going to get much relevant information out the quiet fellows. Hmmmm, let me try something different. What we need the most at this point is some convergence.

We have two votes going on at the moment. Hyuge, since you went first, please share with us your thoughts on Vivi's current candidate, cstar. Do you think she might be mafia, more so the redirector? As things stand currently, would you consider adding to that vote?

As for Vivi, pretty much the same questions, only regarding Hyuge's candidate, TwilightBlader.

On the subject of intel and accusations, yes, it's true that Jiku did that last time. However, the key difference was that she was on the center of the spotlight at the time, and she admitted it was the only reason that we, the former Mafia, could have to throw her under the bus. From my understanding, that's a basic rule of being Mafia. Simply put, there is absolutely no reason to vote, or even accuse a fellow Mafia member until the eve of their lynching. That's clearly not the case with the intel being discussed. Those were almost entirely made up of spontaneous accusations and votes.

As for your thoughts on Haya and cstar, I don't get why you'd rather pick #8 over #20. Mafia goggles on, I can read this as a way to ommit TB from your suggestion, or perhaps a mere slip in which you expose your own involvement. Either way, sounds fishy to me.

All that said, I believe that the Redirector is someone who's been very quiet, and has kept themselves that way in order to avoid unnecessary exposure. I'm caught between Moksha and TB, although somewhat leaning towards the former.

Vivi, it probably would be best if we held off on placing serious votes until we come to a mutual understanding. I can't discuss much more because I'm kind of pressed for time right now, but I'll be back in about an hour.

Understandable, but I'll have to disagree here. Well, sort of. I mean I completely agree with you in the sense that any kind of authorship is biased, no matter how "objetive" it may be perceived, and we could go on to discuss this particular topic in lengh, but that's beside the point.

To be fair, I never intended to have my analysis function as, in your own words, "a true representation of town [...]". It's supposed to portray my own standpoint, nothing else, or at least not something as pretentious as what you suggested. In this regard, my list isn't as biased as you think. I'm using all the information I have available, which includes the knowledge of my position as a Town player. It was an intentional call on my part so as not to be inconsistent or contradictory.

I have some things I'd like to point out here. You see, that final suspect list was made in a bit of a hurry, so I didn't have much time to properly explain some concerns. One of those concerns was that the numbers actually meant nothing at all. I didn't rank the members based on any standard there. Honestly, looking back now, I realized bullet points would've been a better choice.

Which brings me to another concern that kind of goes against what I just said: cstar. Her name only shows up once, unlike the other four names, that's why she happens to be at the bottom of the list. Personally, I chose to narrow that list down to include only the top four, but that's just me.

Now that you mention it, I suppose a frequency count wouldn't hurt. Let's see, TB and Haya are in the lead with 4 scenarios, followed by Cat~ and Moksha who are in 3 each, and finally cstar with only 1 occurrence.

Hmm, I see.

In case you're thinking "how the heck is the Vig still alive?!?! wow this mafia team sucks so bad, they can't even make an obvious call", let me be the one to clear this up. The Vig has been neutralized, and they didn't even have to kill them to achieve that. If we somehow uncover two mafiosi today and we tell our still-exposed Vig to go after the one we don't lynch, the Redirector will inevitably come in once more to turn that easy kill around -- granted the Redirector isn't lynched first, which is extremely unlikely but still entirely possible. Gaah, I really shouldn't lose myself in conjecture all over again, look what happened last time.

Ok, here's where I'll try to lay down some concrete speculation. Everything I have is on the attached pdf file. This is for what they did to you, my good friend. May you rest in peace.[DOUBLEPOST=1411478206][/DOUBLEPOST]Last paragraph in the pdf: *no more than two
My mistake.

The sad part is, everything indicates BTD's getting lynched, and we won't gain any significant information whatsoever with his death. We didn't even use the deadline extension to reach a consensus, we just started putting up thoughtless votes... Well, I'm not voting for either of the top picks. Best of luck, folks.[DOUBLEPOST=1411165921][/DOUBLEPOST]

Spoiler

Hah, will you look at that. Dead townie coming right up.

We're up against exactly 4 mafiosi. Nova confirmed this on our skype conversation. But if don't take my word for it, I certainly don't mind bothering the big boss. @ars nvoa send some backup, chief. Oh, and get those votals right already, in case you missed my most recent skype message.

While I'm at it,

This is what I get for not using the Preview option...[DOUBLEPOST=1411095849][/DOUBLEPOST]Wait, what. Half of my post got deleted. That's not good.[DOUBLEPOST=1411096552][/DOUBLEPOST]The part immediately after the Hyuge's quote actually looked more or less like this:

"You might be surprised, but the member I mentioned in my tip was none other than Vivi himself. His displayed ignorance (in the good sense, of course) of the Mafia's numbers points towards his innocence. From their very first meeting, the Mafia already know exactly how many and which members form their ranks -- I can vouch for this based on our last game. Oh, and I'm not sure if it helps, but I'm also fairly convinced that you're town, you were just caught between a couple of unfortunate accusations. We lost arguably two of our best people last Night, no one's happy about it. I mean, the Mafia might be, but we'll be sure to take the smirks off their faces in no time."

@cstar
There is no doubt that the Mafia are going to kill them next. The good news is that, as clarified by Nova in response to Makaze's question, the Vig's action will still take effect even if they are killed on the same night. Since the Redirector can't target the same person twice in a row, there's nothing else to stop the Vig from taking out Mish.

The basic idea is to not waste a turn on her when we could have a chance at uncovering more Mafia, even if just a small one. Hope this helps.

Intentional mafia undermining can be very easily avoided if town agrees to concede lynch-free privileges for anyone who decides to speak up. Your counterexample defeats the main purpose of this operation, which is to improve our chances of not lynching the Vig.

The secondary purpose, which is to identify possible impostors, only comes into play if and only if more than one Vig appears. It doesn't have to happen, just treat it as an insurance for anyone that tries to boycott the real Vig's claim, if you will. I was responding to a specific concern that might have been included in "Seeding discord and distrust". The best argument I can offer you at this point is Makaze's case. Was there any significant distrust directed at Makaze other than that of his prime suspect, Mish, a now-confirmed Mafiosa? I used significant because there was indeed a bit of unease at first, but actual town members shouldn't distrust role claims in the first place. Much of these fears we are considering have very little application in a concrete situation, and I believe losing ourselves in these trains of thought is by all means unwise and impractical.

Truth be told, at this rate, with so little time left (dang, this round's short) it's better to leave my suggestion as it is, just a suggestion. It definitely won't cost us the game, or so I hope.

It is in fact extremely unlikely that someone would include those bits deliberately, simply because no one in the Mafia has the ability to read minds in order to know under which assumptions the other players are working before they are exposed. I'd even go as far as saying that the level of anticipation required to even consider pulling off something like this is unreal. No, my own assumption was solely based on my experience with Masquerade in Salem, in which, funnily enough, I was part of the Mafia, so I actually have some minimal insight on what it's like to be one of the bad guys.

Now, I was planning to keep the cards to myself until later in the game hoping I could gather some more intel by playing sheep for a bit, but I guess that's not working out either. My suspect list is pretty narrow at the moment. I believe Cat~ is the most suspicious of the bunch; her posting patterns and frequency match Mafia behavior very well in my eyes. In fact, it was exactly why I asked for info specifically on her as my first move. I planned to play along with her stances, which is why my post immediately following her list sounded so indecisive. Didn't get me anywhere, but still worth the shot. Well, her list has quite a few problems, especially the cstar part, in which she dedicated what was supposed to be an accusatory paragraph almost entirely to defending Moksha. It was not until the very last couple of lines that she finally brings cstar up. This gives me enough reason to not only Vote: Cat~, but highly suspect Moksha as well. I find lynching Cat~ to be a sensible move, and that it would provide us with a good deal of information.

My bedside 2 cents are looking an awful lot like a quarter. Certainly enough for the day...

Ah, my friend, it is good that you have finally shown up, though it seems you still don't see the full implications of my proposal.

Note the overly highlighted bit. Before I started writing my last post, the possibility that more than one Vig could turn up did indeed cross my mind and I became somewhat weary of it happening, not unlike yourself. But then it hit me. THAT would be the best possible outcome.

Allow me to walk you through my thought process. Tell me, would a regular Townie choose to go out of their way to impersonate the Vig? I most certainly do not think so, not if they have the town's best interest in mind. Now I ask you, what about the Mafia? Would they have reason to make this claim? You yourself said so; the thing the Mafia want the most is to confuse and misdirect us, which is why we'd probably see one, maybe two impostors, besides Mish of course. This leads me directly to my final (rhetorical) question: at what cost?

The short answer, and simply the last thing any Mafia could possibly want: exposure. And a truckload of that, if you ask me. To illustrate, imagine two people once again, besides Mish claim to be the Vig. Right off the bat we can be pretty much certain that only one of them is the real deal, while the other has to be Mafia, for the reasons presented above. All we have to do is not lynch either of them, and let me tell you why. Come tomorrow (in game terms), Mish dies, Vig dies, same old stuff we've known for a while, BUT! We also get the nice little bonus Mafioso in the bag, maybe two if we're lucky. If this isn't exactly the same as them turning themselves in, I don't know what is.

In essence, if there's any Mafioso reading this, well, I guess I just saved you the trouble of doing such a reckless move. Too bad, huh. At any rate, regardless if we take the Vig's word for it or more than one comes up, they, and by an extent we, stil have nothing to lose. As such, I will vigorously continue to support my proposal.

Oh, and I'll leave you all with a little tip -- more of a challenge, because I have clearly written too much for a single post. Posts #529, #808 and #924 have something in common, or rather, a key piece of evidence that might just help prove a certain player's innocence. Can you find it?

So let's see if I get this straight. To recap, the Mafia already knows the Vig's identity, correct? We can't tell for sure how exactly that happened -- well, at least I can't; maybe they got really lucky some Night, or maybe there was a certain tell throughout the game that gave it away (I swear, I've quadruple checked the posts).

Anyway, my question is, what's the point in keeping the Vig a secret?

"What in the world are you suggesting, Judge, are you crazy? No... I get it, it's all a Mafia scheme to draw out the Vig! Hey everyone, I've found another one, let's lynch him!"

Now hold on a minute, anonymous accuser. We should all know the obvious by now: At the very least, the Redirector knows their ID, so at the end of the day get it the rest of the Mafia will have already learned it as well and will swiftly move in for the kill. From my perspective, we gain two things by having them come out: The first is that we won't have to worry about commiting the worst mislynch possible. Think about it, one of our biggest objectives today is "avoid lynching the Vig at all costs" so we don't have to waste a turn on Mish, right? The second thing is simply a town confirmation. One less potential suspect for us to worry about.

All that said, I need people to voice their opinions on this, mostly because it's about making public a big role such as the Vig's, and I don't have the power to convince them on my own.