[ COP MODE: OFF ] I don't mean to sound picky, but this doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. You say you believe one of them is mafia while the other is town. But then, by process of elimination, assuming you are Town, the rest of the scum team would invariably consist of Cstar and Mixt. So why not consider them? Not only that, but seeing as you're in the 'danger pool', and, again, assuming you're Town, that would mean you're ahead of us Confirmies (lol) in terms of info. Should be more than enough to give you a solid basis for your suspicions, 's what I'm getting at.
Thank you, Mixt. I'm sorry I put you through this, you've been a big help. At this point, I believe a revelation is in order. If you payed close attention (looking at you, Marushi), you might've spotted a few weird things in my posts, such as a few vague statements or answers, like so: If you look back at my reveal, you'll see that I planted something there that could help explain this, without making it seem like an impromtu deus ex machina or whatever. Observe: ... I was referring to my own words, heh. Anywho, I already have what I wanted, so here goes nothing. ------- I am the cop. Night 0 result showed that Blaine/Cat is Town. So far so good. But, here's the surprise. My other investigation was not fruitless, you see. Night 1 came, I was all set to investigate Krowley, but by a stroke of luck I changed it last-minute to Calxiyn, who came up Town. Now, for the amazing part: I cannot confirm that Mixt is Mafia. I never explicitly stated that he was my target last night. Marushi was, and she's Town as well. Shocking, ain't it? I ran the numbers, and the odds of this happening (cop + three confirmed reads, all still alive) was approximately 50%. To top it off, my third read was NOT Mafia, and that was the icing on the cake. Think about it for a minute. Which would be better, trying to pick off the Mafia one by one, or singling out the entire team in one fell swoop? Now, I know this is impossible under these circumstances, but with Mixt's "help", we managed to get the next best thing. Let's go through the numbers, one more time. 1 Confirmed Cop (Judge) 3 Confirmed Townies (Cal, Cat and Marushi) 5 Unconfirmed Players (Cstar, Ghost, Midny, Mish and Mixt) After going through this list a million times over, something occurred to me. What if I could force another read, without using resorting to my Night Action? So I gambled again. There was a 3/5 chance that I would correctly guess Mafia, but I wasn't gambling for that, oh no. I went for the big prize: another Town read. I knew my reveal would have a lot of weight to it, since I REALLY AM the stinking cop, so the subject was very likely to reveal their true colors. I like to think of it in poker terms. I set myself up to have a three of a kind in hand -- for the sake of the analogy, let's say three Aces and a Jack. As a magician (this is true irl actually), I decided to hide two of those Aces up my sleeve and just bluff, since I knew exactly which cards Mixt could give me. If he gave me a Jack (turned up scum), I'd have a full house, which is not that bad, but try and guess which other hand I got from that draw, one that trumps a full house any day. Now, I'm not saying he's confirmed Town per se, but judging from his responses I can only assume that would be the case, despite some of his mixed signals get it? To honor the spirit of my metaphor, I'm saying I'd go all in on this bet. tl;dr With the debatable exception of Mixt, out of the last four unconfirmed players (Cstar, Ghost, Midnight and Mish), three are mafia and only one is innocent. That's a 1/4 chance of mislynch, oh my hee hee :B Checkmate. Wait, wasn't this supposed to be poker... Spoiler: @Mafia You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched reads when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fools! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders: "Never go in against a Magician when a game of Mafia is on the line"! Ahahahahahahaha!
So let me get this straight. You're telling me I'm more likely to be Mafia than you are, is that it? Sure, I'll entertain this notion for a second. Assuming what you're saying to be true, that you're not Mafia, who would you put in your top scum team right now?
Well, well! We meet again, missing Mixt. True. Even still, role-confirmation can go a long way, and I know two reads (three if you consider mine) aren't exactly the best result, but hey, it puts us in a better position than town having zero reads and a high chance of a third consecutive mislynch. Except not many people were actually considering you for the lynch right off the bat. This was not a waste of time, my friend. We wouldn't have ended up here, because now many of us are working with a lot more info than at phase-Dawn. Furthermore, seeing as we both like math so much, might I also point out that the odds of my reveal flopping on the next day are way too big for me to let it happen. Bottom-line is, I was well aware of these implications, and I decided to take action. Your other scenarios are sound and all, but you forget one simple fact. I am what I claim to be, and I can prove it. Remember back in Day 1, when my past self burnitup said he was "more than sure" Blaine/Cat wasn't Mafia? Heh, you know where this is going, right? That was a terrible move at the time, a huge slip up tell. I was even surprised the mafia didn't pick it up. Actually, thinking about it, they could've picked it up and just chosen to take advantage of it by playing it up as scum buddying. Problem is, trying to nab the cop is almost always better than leaving it to chance and risking a possible butt-saving reveal. So either way, kudos Mafia.
@Cat~ Uhm, could you unvote Mixt real quick? He's dangerously close to a hammer.
Let me get one thing out of the way here. As a respectable member of the judiciary (yeah right pfff) I stand by the belief that every accused has the right to defend themselves. This includes Midny, Cstar and yes, even Mixt. For this reason, I propose that we vote to extend the deadline by another day. Win or lose, I for one don't want this game to end prematurely because of something this stupid detail. I mean, where's the fun in that? I just hope the Mods will be so kind as to sanction this motion.[DOUBLEPOST=1468022474][/DOUBLEPOST]Oh, right: ##Vote: Extend Deadline
See what I mean? *shrug* Just got back, will post seriously in a bit.
I will be quick then. In light of these new pieces of info, who would you put in your hypothetical mafia team? Also, pardon me, I know this has very little to do with the game, but would you identify yourself as a "she"? I ask this because, if I'm not mistaken, more than one player (myself excluded) has been referring to you as either "him" or "they".
You were Night 0. Or rather, it was Blaine, I'm afraid that cat is already out of the bag... *points to pile of dead names* I don't see the point of revealing their alignment again, since it's public knowledge at this point. Hm, looks like Mixt is cornered. He had only posted once this phase when I made my move, which means he has to give out at least four more testimonies before the Day's end. @Makaze can you confirm if the respective penalty for not meeting the five post quota is indeed a modkill, or does it only incur a warning? ( I have to actually watch out for that penalty myself, lol ) And one more thing: This, ladies and... gent (?), is a common practice better known as 'bussing'.
Not. So. Fast. This charade has been going on for too long. Keep in mind that some things are not what they appear to be. Do you guys think only the Mafia benefits from not drawing too much attention? The Tale vote was nothing but a wild guess, I'll give you that much. Sure, he flipped Town in the end, but that was an inevitable risk, and a calculated one at that. Good thing the Mafia had a hand in tipping the scales in my favor, inadvertedly. Speaking of the devil(s), a little bird tells me you've been up to no good, @Mixt . Miraculously saving someone at the last minute, only to try and dispose of them the next day by using everyone's heightened suspicions. And, between you and me, we both know for a fact that this particular feline is innocent, don't we? Oh no, not on my watch you won't. The jig is up, Mixt! Or should I say M A F I O S O #1 . Any last words, before I arrest you?
(In case you missed this little memo)
I'll admit the Cat vote seems a bit tempting, for consolidation purposes, but I realized something that made me stick with my initial decision. Keep in mind that this goes slightly beyond the matter of reads, though it's still somewhat related I guess. So, what do I believe is the most potentially dangerous player to keep around, a quiet and inconspicuous one, like Tale, or one that has exposed themselves a lot, like Cat? To answer that, I had to compare the outcomes of lynching one or the other: Short-term, I'd most likely go with Cat, since that would clear up everyone's current suspicions of her. Regardless of how she flips, all of the reads people have on her are either confirmed or disproven, meaning we get more information than we had before, which is a good thing. Long-term though, definitely Tale. A quieter player becomes much more of an issue as the game goes on. It's always harder to read them, and their overall minor presence and interaction begin to slowly cripple what small chance the Town has to turn things around. And that's my 'but-judge-you-were-the-leading-vote-on-tale-of-course-you-would-say-that' pair of cents.
WELL NOW, if it isn't old Oda. It's been quite a while, eh pal? What's up?
I see I didn't do the best job at expressing my beliefs on the Tale case, so I'll try my best to explain them properly. ^These bits seem to imply that my case against him was built upon the Unvote event. Well, it wasn't. I didn't have any evidence to think he was Mafia at the time, so I tried to press one of the quieter players. That was merely a way to get him talking, and guess what, it worked. His first defense was perfectly fine, I even said so myself, but the issue there was that, as a result, Tale showed us that he was indeed capable of making solid and informative points. But why hasn't he done so again, except for when he had to either explain or defend himself? Marushi herself remarked the same thing: Hence my follow-up post. His next response, however, didn't convince me, so I decided to place my chips on the fella. I still feel pretty convinced about him. And if I turn out to be wrong, well, it'd suck, another mislynch, but that's how the game goes. ~~|| As a side note, I've been thinking a lot about my possible bias towards my early mafia reads. I was mafia on my first game, and I know how much an advantage this faction has. We ended up winning that one, Ben and I, pretty much because we layed low, so I'm always super aware of the quiet ones from personal experience. Especially those that CAN contribute but don't. On the flip side, this bias played a big part in undermining my performance during one of the last games (Book of Names, if I'm not mistaken). Idk, I just thought I should put this out there for anyone that's interested. ||~~
(you guys post way too fast, I just can't catch a break) Uhm, I feel that the Krowley Conundrum is being a bit overblown? Frankly, it could be much simpler than that. My humble theory is that, after the Krowl man's 'wake up' post, some people got a pro-town read from him, saying stuff like "ok look, he could be valuable". You can combine this with the fact that he never got around to accusing many players, and boom, you get probable cause juice right there. Maybe they thought he'd be a hard candidate for people to vote on again, who knows. The point is, it was likely a simple, efficient move on the Mafia's part, imo, instead of some intricate framing scheme or what have you. On the subject of reads, my biggest suspicion right now is (you guessed it) Tale. His last defense was very weak, barely addressing my points at all. What I have on him can be seen on my previous two posts, plus him being vote #2 on Krowley's failed wagon. For what it's worth, I think he's a good player who's flying low on the radar, so I'll ##Vote: . : tale : . for now. Runner ups go to Mixt and Cal, but I simply don't have the time to go into their cases right now. Some of us have to sleep. And if you must know, my biggest town/pro-town reads right now are Marushi (welcome to the game!), Al, and Mish. I also considered Midny at first, but I've been second-guessing that thought. The rest are still a bit hard for me to read though, as I don't see any consistent flags yet. Expect more tomorrow.
Yeah, I'll admit I went a little overboard there. Sorry, won't happen again. @cstar I disagree, to be honest. I think people should be free to pursue their own leads. All I did was engage one of the quieter members into a separate discussion. There could be multiple lines of discussion happening in parallel, and I see nothing wrong with that. Unless someone asks something to me personally, I wouldn't have anything to contribute regarding those cases, I think the others are handling it just fine.
. . . O-oh, another with a taste for the theatrical, I see. That is an excellent testimony, I will give you that. And yet it begs the question: Why would you only say so now and not alongside your unvote? It's very easy to hide yourself in silence and sheepishly follow suit, when you can give a detailed ex post facto justification like you just did! !! Furthermore, I have a hard time believing that your sharp reasoning is merely an in-character trait. Up until my initial inquiry, you had said very little that was remotely on par with what you have just stated. In essence, I think your behavior is contradictory! What do you have to say for yourself, Mr Windiana Jones?
You guys are right, strictly speaking, there is no soft lynch. HOWEVER, if someone's the top vote at any given time, technically they are at what Nova's games used to call 'soft lynch'. Ditto: With that out of the way, I will now call to the stand one Mr @. : tale : . So *puts on reading glasses*, Mr Wind, following Blaine's (or past!Cat's) little editing incident, you voted for him. Then, after his replacement came through, also unvoting you, Midny advised the three players who had voted for him to null their votes, yourself included. The other two did so on their first chances. *takes off glasses* You sir, on the other hand, didn't (see post #189). It was only afterwards that you nulled your vote, without even mentioning why. Could you please elaborate on this if possible, Mr... uhm... Windy Taylor, was it?[DOUBLEPOST=1467513908][/DOUBLEPOST] Actually Cat, Mish put up the fifth vote for G-dog. And before yours, KH530, came Krowley's, which was the sixth vote. Cat/Blaine only ever voted for Tale and Krowley, but not G-dog.
I was typing up my response, but Midny beat me to it. Yeah, basically what she said. My fault there for not being too clear, I guess I'm still a bit rusty.
OFSEVENTEEEEN Spoiler
