I like questions but I don't like long answers.
I like suns but I don't like stars.
I was talking about Sax. x:
'Dunno about Jiku, but I can confirm that one of her lovers didn't die.
Contrary to what you might think, my scumhunting skills are sub-par. My uninformed reads are almost always totally backwards. These last two games are proof of that. , _,
Hah, if only! Wait, you're serious about this, huh? Kay, let's see here... The only ones who ever mentioned this were Splodge and myself actually, iirc. Still don't get why it's a bad thing. I read it somewhere that it's supposed to be a scum/nulltell, but ehhh, I like to know what I'm dealing with. Plus, I also used this knowledge to do some quiet work over on QT. Maybe one of the reasons why I wasn't as active as I could've been on the main thread. At the time, I agreed with Nova's argument about lynching Cal purely for the flip info while simultaneously suspecting him. I spotted a few holes his case on Cal (the holes were real btw), but I was well aware that they could also both be Town, which is why I said I would continue to suspect him only if Cal flipped red (read: my bus theory). This was all but disproven when Splodge did in fact flip Mafia, and Nova's Cal-Al-Splodge conundrum started to become a lot more believable. So yeah, as you yourself said, I did try casing two or three people. Turns out I was wrong about those cases, but so what? I didn't desperately want to be right this time like I did on the Mixt incident. I admit I tunneled Nova for a bit, but I did manage to change my mind based on new evidence. And that's the moral of this story right there: live and learn from your mistakes. Anything else, Inspector Maruseau?
This, basically^
I was under the assumption that her lynch has been more or less secured by now. Heck, with three votes on her, the rest of the Mafia could even blitz her if they wanted, just to cut the day short. Wouldn't be very good for Town, would it? We's just waitin' for the no-shows at this stage. Further ISO checks are always welcome too, especially on the more suspicious ones.
Hold up, let me guess. The most handsome/best pilot of the bunch?
This is completely unrelated and might not help us at all, buuut: Guys, I think Jiku was trying to tell us something here. :v[DOUBLEPOST=1470077349][/DOUBLEPOST]@Calxiyn I'm pretty sure it's Saxima.
Sorry, that was poorly worded. What I meant was-- ... I was typing up a response, but ONCE AGAIN I have been ninja'd.
Nevermind, Al spoiled it. @Ars Nova Not really. I think her dilemma had to do with finding a way to take out Al or defend him so that she doesn't die as well.
I put two and two together:
I was going to reply, but Maru took the words right outta my... fingers. I want to clear up some things first. Al FoS'd Nova on one of his last posts (I can't remember which one), but he deliberately left it hanging hoping that I'd pick it up to pursue my tunnel quest again the boss. Turns out I now think that tunnel is a dead-end. In addition, I support Marushi's move. Heck, I applaud it. I'm thinking the scumteam could be Al, Cstar, and two out of Kelly, Sax or Karuta. TRs: Cal, Maru and Midny. Not sure about Mish, I'd have to check again. AND BEFORE YOU ASK, I HAVE A SCUMTOWN READ ON NOVA, OK?
Gimme, gimme, gimme a gif after midnight? The temptation was too great. I'm sorry, sir. /salute
Sure thing. Fair warning though, I'm not very knowledgeable about probability theory in particular. I ran the numbers once to find out the likelihood of me having two scum for partners, but that was well before Jiku and Splodge flipped, which complicates things a bit because I think it goes into conditional prob. territory aaand I don't remember how that works very well, haha sorry. I can still (maaaybe) tell you what the odds were at the start of the game, to the best of my ability: ------- So, assuming we know for a fact that the player in question a) is Town and b) has 2 lovers, for the first question we take the prob. that the first lover is Town (7/12) times the prob. that the second is also Town (6/11), which gives us 7/22, roughly 32%. If you want the double red variation, we have prob. that the first lover is Mafia (5/12) times prob. that the second is also Mafia (4/11) giving us 5/33, which is about 15%. I'm feeling generous tonight, so as an added bonus I'll tell you the odds of having one Town and one Mafia, and that is (7/12 x 5/11) + (5/12 x 7/11) = 35/66 = ~53%. Hey, would you look at that, they all add up to 100% o: Oh boy, now I know I can't be wrong! pffyeah I wish...
Sweet, I get to double vote!
Except I didn't vote her to put pressure. I did it because I townread Splodge, which means I don't agree with the wagon you're riding and I wanted to maybe tip the scales.
Boss, I mean you no disrespect whatsoever, but where on earth did you get this from? I've also been conducting a couple ISOs of my own (bless Mak and his little scripts) and your story just doesn't check out. You say Cal didn't do anything apart from reading into people's grammar, and that she hasn't provided any solid reads. But look at these two posts, for instance. Am I missing something here? Because to me, exhibit A shows her scumhunting, while exhibit B also shows her giving reads on all players. This is already more than I ever did, and honestly the 'safe play' cap you knit for Cal fits me better than it fits her. I did a ton of setup-speccing myself, which is apparently supposed to be a possible scumtell/null tell. Like I said, I tried ISOing a few players, yourself and Cal included. Now, if I'm doing this right, I'm more inclined to scumread you, boss. Don't you think for a minute that I didn't see you buddying up to Maru after you obvtowned her. Plus, I also see you as the perfect Mafia frontman busser I talked about before. "JUDGE DO U EVEN CHAINSAW DEF--" Yeah, thanks but no thanks. I take more of an issue with your case against her than I do with her being lynched. I actually agree with you re: the Cal-Al-Splodge entanglement. Personally I'm TRing Splodge, so I'd be down on the Cal vote for the sake of flip-related info. If she's red, you're next on my list, boss-a Nova. ##Unvote ##Vote: Calxiyn ~~// Bonus: me in this game
Was out for most of the day (my brother had a basketball game), so I was checking in on my phone from time to time. I've yet to actually read everything new that was presented, but I'm feeling pretty exhausted rn. I'll try my best not to fall asleep while I'm at it, heh.
