Coming down from the excitement of Judge's post I noticed that it also relies on him being the cop. I was prepared to accept it quickly at first because holy **** I'm not going to die tonight, but wanted to check that we weren't being played for fools. I've only had time for a rudimentary check (lucky he doesn't have tons of posts), and I haven't noticed any point of his timeline being inconsistent. So there are okay odds at least. I'm having trouble convincing myself that the odds aren't better than maybe 60%, but some of that might be that I was just spending the last several hours trying to think of ways to convince people that those odds were bad enough to consider saving me. And of course ##Unvote: Judge Sunrose[DOUBLEPOST=1468096913][/DOUBLEPOST]@Marushi: First, I was getting too caught up in the today side of things and was trying to find a way to phrase reads to not end up in circular logic nonsense. Realizing that was impossible I wanted to make reads to be useful later. But I can't know what the circumstances of the game would be later. And to analyse a person I read (or at least skim) the entire thread twice focusing on one person. Once for what stands out as Mafia and once for what stands out as Town (the former being where I tend to think I see the most stuff). So by this point it is a pain to get a reading and I didn't want to go through all that to be mildly helpful maybe.
That's really clever, but it relies on me being Town which you don't know for sure. And Marushi was the only one who seemed to be willing to even entertain that I might be Town during the bulk of today. I'll try my best to expand my reads to all four of your suspects, but in exchange we need people to read me and judge for themselves how likely I am to be Town.
When I've been talking about plans I was referring to this post just before the post I made that we started confusing each other. You didn't mention making plans specifically but generally preparing for the next day. I can see now how "plans" wasn't the best word to use. Also all my talk of days I'm referring to game days. So when I talk about what you guys will do in two days, I don't expect you to hard lynch Judge in less than 24-hours and move on if that is what you thought. It has been well established at this point that a hard lynch is no bueno. I'm saying you'll lynch Judge during the next game day and then you get a choice of lynch the game day after that. But we are talking 4 deaths between now and then and I have no idea what 2 of them are going to be. That alone, even if applicable players are chosen at random, affects the playspace a lot. Add in that the two kills I don't know are Mafia kills -- that should be acting to disrupt things -- and it would be rather surprising if my guesses hold water. Meanwhile today people would almost definitely analyse them with reverse intentions making them act more like red herrings.
Did I misread something? I thought you were just saying that tomorrow you would be working out who is who and and making plans on how to deal with them. I said it won't be that easy and odds are very high you will be reworking those plans once the Mafia kill comes, and then you replied that your current plans are too vague to be disrupted? Also I fail to see how "Mafia have to post five times or be modkilled" is a plan, that is a game mechanic. And one that I bet you no one is going to invoke. I came the closest to invoking it today and that is because that rule was only made today that it took me a while to notice. Anyone playing to win will escape it now that everyone is aware of it. And yes, I was asking if anyone else had someone they wanted me to do a read on. Anyway, time to get started. Note: This will take a while. Like a couple of hours per person a while.
I don't suspect you to be twiddling your thumbs, but you're planning in front of Mafia. If your plans go off cleanly that is a huge red flag. And when the plans go wrong my view of how things are now will be borderline useless. Anyway I'll post my focused reads after lunch. I think I can handle one more. Does someone other than Marushi want to claim it? (You can claim it if none else wants to. Just trying to diversify interests)
If I had something meaningful to communicate I would leave it. But I just don't. If you want to give a couple of names and ask me to find anything you may have missed, I can do that. But in analysing everyone at once, all the facts I see are already accounted for. All that's left are opinions and if you guys are reading my opinions in two days looking for leads, god help you.
Most of that post is you agreeing with me agreeing with you, so I'm just going to break that off. If you can convince me that giving reads will help me or the town I'll do it, but the profiles are all I've got. When I come up Town you guys will lynch Judge, only after that will you be able to act on my reads I post now. But why would you read two days back to a guy who isn't certain of anything. The only way my reads help Town is if I'm Mafia. I could do it as a "See guys? Would Mafia do this?" But that isn't nearly convincing enough for the hole I'm in.
Sorry for the confusion. My knee jerk is that neither of us should vote because we cancel and it is pointless, then the rest of you have a bit more room to vote between us without hard lynch. But I realized as I was typing that that the obvious conclusion is that I'd be egging people to get Judge within a vote of hard and then spring my vote. So to make everyone more comfortable I put my vote down. And now Judge has every right to use his to balance out our my word against yours squabble. As for my challenge, I'm not sure how you thought I was trying to stump you. My pie in the sky is that you might see something I missed since (despite doubting yourself at points) I do think you are much better at the analysis than I am. My practical goal was to show you that there just isn't convincing dirt on Judge. My most convincing argument is actually the lack of dirt. Judge didn't even have anyone vote for him before today. And this is in the same game where Cat almost got lynched for having too many tells and we're pretty sure now that she's innocent. But that is some pretty weak dirt. Not getting anyone trying to kill you is just a mark of a good player, not that they are Mafia or Town. You're plan makes perfect sense and if I was anywhere but here I would be supporting it wholeheartedly. And that is why it is so damn hard to say that it's wrong. Basically you guys have a gamble. If you guess I'm Mafia and are right: Mafia pretty much has to kill Judge tonight, and you are free tomorrow. If you guess I'm Mafia and are wrong: Mafia gets an open night, and you lynch Judge tomorrow. If you guess Judge is Mafia and are right: Mafia gets an open night, and you are free tomorrow. If you guess Judge is Mafia and are wrong: Mafia gets an open night, and you lynch me tomorrow. If you think we are equally likely to be Mafia then you have to choose me. You have the same risk of losing a day and needing tomorrow to hit your target, but you can get the Mafia tied up killing the cop.
Actually to the contrary. To an outside observer I totally see I'm the stronger Mafia pick. But obviously from my perspective- what, am I going to vote for myself? Is that even allowed? What would I possibly have to gain? It just comes down to my word against yours. I don't have a case to build against you, and so far you don't seem to have one against me other than cop powers. So until you somehow manage to prove you have them or come up with a different case I'm just inclined to twiddle my thumbs here. It doesn't make sense for me to talk about specific people other than you right now though. I'm not the cop, so I don't know anyone's roles to give insight where other people don't see it. And a statement like that would likely trigger all future analysis posts today to have convoluted readings of those statements that you can take to mean whatever you want. Are the names to point you in the wrong direction, or are they accurate so that you think those names are clear (and vice versa for Town reads). And then come tomorrow those statements would become borderline garbage. The best I can say for scumteam is a profile. It makes sense to have one quiet member that tries to blend into the back and tries to last til the end, and one vocal member to try and lead the Town's focus. You are the only name I can drop because despite some very oddball cases I think it is clear that one of us Mafia. Until today I would say you fit the bill for the quiet one. Not full on because of the movement to remove quiet people, but enough to slide under the radar. But the quiet one is supposed to be the survivor and you just kamikazed into me. So that means that you fit neither of the roles I just stated, so those would then still be out there. Past that I've got no effing idea who those two would be and it would only hurt discussion to force a hunch and name drop.[DOUBLEPOST=1468077129][/DOUBLEPOST]And I still haven't learned to refresh before posting. Follow up to Marushi shortly.
Alright, I'm caught up but really I can’t respond to most of what I missed. With the consensus right now being that I'm Mafia, anything I post about the other theories going on will be read in this weird "Is that slipped information or an attempt to mislead us?" kind of tone. And that basically just becomes white noise. Also I forgot to ##Unvote: Cat~. Obviously that is just a move that doesn’t make sense any more. At this point I want to say that my vote and Judge’s would cancel and we should therefore not vote and leave a bit more space for everyone else to work with. But I know that especially with the end of the previous day people will be expecting that I’m really saving my vote for a last minute wrench. So I’ll ##Vote: Judge Sunrose just as a way to say there’s nothing up my sleeve. If I was the cop (and not being accused) and saw someone pretending to be cop today, I think I would just let it happen. They are killing off their own and I get a read for doing nothing but playing along. As for your modkill stuff, I don’t actually follow all of what you’re saying. By Marushi’s above count, Midnight and myself are the only two still up for modkill with both of us having 3 posts (this one included). And I’m not sure how you can be positive that at least one of us is Mafia. The only concern of getting zero reads is if you were lynched or killed before revealing. If it’s a lynch you’ll know ahead of time and can leave a farewell note that gets verified upon you’re death. For the kill, it’s a 1 and 6 chance right now. Everyone has their own risk/reward thresholds but I certainly don’t agree with yours. I’ll grant you that I could see the cop having issues tomorrow because that is where the Mafia will be pulling all the stops to seal the deal if today goes well. Fair enough. And for you’re great proof, well it doesn’t hold well. First, Cat’s role is fully known yet. After all this I would be surprised for Cat to turn up Mafia, but it could happen. Second, hyperbole is just a thing that people use and burnitup doesn’t strike me as one to avoid it. Third, a well planned Mafia member could plant that just as easily as a Cop could plant it or have a slip of the tounge. By logic of strong wording accurately pinning a member before their reveal Cal fits the bill better. Stronger wording and al is known entity now. And @Marushi, I was admittedly being lazy and prioritizing the stuff going on IRL, for that I appologize to everyone. Hell, if I’d have known how much I would be away from the computer this past week I might not have signed up for this. In hindsight forcing myself to get even a small post out as I realised what was happening would have removed the MIA speculation from the snowballing, but I don’t think that would have changed where we stand that much. Unless I can come up with something seriously good on Judge any attacks just get labeled as the panicked finger pointing of a man backed into a corner. And that dirt just isn’t there, I have looked. Check for yourself in my shoes. Pretend you know that he’s Mafia and you need to find something that shows he’s Mafia over Cop.
I'm terribly sorry. I've been away from my computer, and thus not had good opportunity to post. I was trying to spend time getting together a post when it seemed like everyone decided to accept Judge as cop and me as Mafia as fact. Given that situation I didn't feel the need to stress getting posting time on my phone, because the punishment was supposed to be a swap and I would be surely killed before then. But I'm back now with a clear schedule, so at the very least you can remove modkilling from today's strategies. Now I would like to recount the start of today from my perspective. Before Judge, I was being accused by multiple people because they thought we reached a consensus on lynching @Cat~ and believed I was protecting her, or disrupting information gathering, or something by switching that near the end; and therefor I was probably Mafia. But that was just weird to me. 1) Before I put down the vote that people were asking me to make Cat was only leading by one vote (Well two because my post went up after Marushi, but whatever. For the people who left thinking Cat was sure to be lynched it was still one vote). And 2) when the Day closed Tale was one vote away from a hard lynch, so just under half of us agreed on Tale. But somehow there was a movement going against me. Then Judge posted and just confused me, because there is no doubt that Judge is a dead man walking. If he's telling the truth the Mafia gets him tonight, if he's lying then the Town gets him tomorrow. Let's play hypothetical with everything he said being right; I'm Mafia he's cop. People were already on my case. Sure it's hard to tell from the short duration before he stepped in if that would have fizzled out or lead me to the chopping block, but why risk it? Judge could have lain low at least until my case settled in a direction. If it's not necessary to call me out then great, he lives to get more reads unless the Mafia gets a lucky guess. If it is necessary to call me out then we end up here, just a bit farther into the day. Then there is the option that Judge is Mafia and I'm Town. Mafia has gotten a perfect run so far and could potentially win at the end of night 4. By making a ruse as the cop during day 3 Mafia would be sacrificing one of their own and pushing things back to at best day 5 with no notable gain. Then I guess we could both be Mafia, but that plan makes no sense. People would be convinced of Judge being cop from the correct read until morning comes and he's still alive. You could play off the Mafia just being weird or something, but I highly doubt that would come to much. That is just way too freaking risky a move when, as said above, Mafia might not need to do anything. And for completion sake; Judge could be Vanilla Town that is super convinced I'm Mafia and is willing to sacrifice themselves to make sure I'm lynched. Or could be creating a smokescreen for the real cop. But those are very high profile moves of questionable effectiveness for someone that has been quiet and level headed so far. tl;dr it makes no sense from any angle. Now I’ve got some reading to catch up on.[DOUBLEPOST=1468047336][/DOUBLEPOST]BTW, if I'm being a complete noob and there is another option I'm not accounting for, please let me know. I'm just really confused right now.
I'll admit I was being a bit impulsive at the end of the last day. Cat being late to respond threw me through a bit of a loop. But as it stands, while there are reasons to suspect Cat, my instinct was saying to go after Tale. He did fit the profile of the quieter player, that I think we've all said that at least one member of Mafia is likely to be. And yes, I do realize that I fit that bill too. Although I have also been trying to shake that and play the game a bit more intensely, which was a major factor in me moving away from my intentional non-vote I declared when Cat was still MIA. Just to be clear though, I was not protecting Cat. I actually find Cat suspicious as well (as I said in the analysis Marushi requested of me), I just felt going after the profile instead of a string of small events was smarter. What I was more interested in was Cat's response to being under suspicion. And we never really got that yesterday because it looked like her death warrant was signed when she got here. In hindsight by building the case without Cat here we may have ended up in an echo chamber and convinced ourselves there is more there than really is. Or maybe I'm just too much of a softie. Regardless, before we lose the train of thought I'm going to Vote: Cat~ as to force the defense to yesterday's accusations.
5 minutes isn't enough time for an analysis, but did tale play a major role in getting Cat here? I mean in the off chance that we did get two Mafia on the chopping block they wouldn't be able to come out clean so it makes sense for them to push for the other.
This is a freaking nail biter and I'm not even in trouble. Heck I'm not even sure what outcome I should be hoping for.
With my vote in you can switch and put tale in the lead if you want.
Alright. I need to start getting votes in. And honestly I feel like tale fits the Mafia profile more, so I'm going to place my vote there. I know I shouldn't go off of gut feelings too much, but I feel like Cat is more-so the victim of some bad coincidences and misplaced words. ##Vote: tale
It's an unofficial votal but... Cat~ - 4 (Mish, Ghost, cstar, . : tale : .) . : tale : . - 3 (Judge Sunrose, al215, Cat~) Marushi - 1 (Calxiyn) No vote - 3 (Midnight Star, Marushi, Mixt) Half an hour remains
I don't blame the strategy of forcing a tie when behind, no one want to be killed regardless of if they are Mafia or Town. The only reason that leaves me with a bit of a sour taste is letting it fly under the radar like that.
It is worth noting that because Cat voted against tale they are now tied 3 to 3. Which will be a coin-flip if it goes there. I'm willing to throw down a vote if people want me to, but I don't have any strong feelings on either of them.
I'm going to Unvote: Ghost. Since that was just a pressure vote. (Not that he was likely to be in trouble anyway). Like Midnight, I find myself not being sure of players enough to take action. I wanted pressure on Cat, but that was because she was supposed to be here to respond yesterday. Clearly a lack of defending yourself isn't a good defense; but I felt like the case against Cat was mediocre and really I wanted to know what the response would be. The Cal case is interesting. But there is the whole elephant in the room about that where it might be a bad idea to lynch and we could learn a little something tonight just sitting on it. And after that no one looks lynchable to me. So, barring some dramatic turn, I will leave my vote purposefully unassigned and let everything take its course; which is probably going to be Cat.
