I do. Was going to take the time to narrow it down, actually. Expect a more thorough list later tonight. @default do you mind addressing some of the arguments put towards you when you have the time?
My Day 1 pursuit was The Fuk? and I can make clear that he is still one of the highest people on my lists as the moment, if you wish to have an idea of where my searching lies currently. His current activity (or lack thereof) combined with everything from yesterday is pointing to this. I was originally for Hayabusa but at this point I feel that their activity is not a sufficient indicator of whether or not they are treading mafia, but we will see. In response to hyuge's requests, I must properly organize the vocal sets of individuals, but I find the following people worth paying close attention to, without any particular order and with varying amounts of as-of-yet unspecified intensity: default; The Fuk?; Luxord; hyuge; Vivi; TwilightBlader; Calxiyn; Cat; Makaze; Marushi; though this list is most definitely subject to change, especially considering the last two days of work have left me with little time to analyze the metadays of Day 2. Keep in mind the aforementioned is not simply restricted to mafia but also potential named roles. It feels very generalized at the moment but keeping the pool here would help solidify which peaks and which troughs would exist in the particular specifications of who is what from that particular pool. And that is what my current research is heading into, whether or not the pool will change.
{ Analysis One } Greetings. I have spent my free time whenever possible to scour the occurrences of the previous day. What you will see in the below will be a very general series of analyses of the recent events, particularly those involving the death of Trigger and the recent accusations towards Makaze, along with my own personal notes on the potentially suspicious individuals who lie among our town. This short essay will be titled Analysis One, and while I will keep bullet points for each heading summarizing the main arguments of that particular heading, I recommend you take the time to read the section completely if you find something ambiguous or uncertain, especially considering my roundabout verbosity. This will also diminish the potential for misunderstanding and the construction of strawmen that will serve to further undermine the relationships between our town that are absolutely necessary to pursue victory in the face of the mafia. I am also partly doing this to de-stress over the horrendous amount of coding work I have had this week. Hear hear. The quotes used will not be direct quotations because I am typing this in a separate word processor for consistent organization. Users will be matched with their quotations. Please use the Find (Ctrl+F) function if you wish to directly source the quote. I have also provided a guide in the form of page-number:post-number next to the speaker's name. I apologize dearly, but it is indeed a bit late at the moment and I have more work tomorrow. Contents I. The Calamity Trigger II. The Devil Wind III. The Tragedy of the Sotto Voce IV. Final Notes I. The Calamity Trigger x x. Trigger was a bit of an odd case for being night killed, but this may tie into why x. He was wishy-washy, but his arguments were rational and he was flexible, and this could have proved a developing threat x. A number of factors, such as the suspicion of others, combined with the above point, may have contributed to his death x. Six possible hypotheses, with the last one combining a general trend of how he acted within the game x. Much of the suspicion we had of him was based on a misunderstanding of his personality and situation, and relying on objective tells can thus be a town weakness we need to address Poor Jerome. First time playing and he was murdered by those silly mafiosi on the first night. More concretely, a good number of us were a mix of surprised and accepting of his death. Throughout Day 1, Trigger consistently read high on behaviours that appeared, at first glance, anti-town, by a number of people (myself included, prior to about the penultimate metaday of Day 1). The mistaken shade of suspicion a number of us perceived around Trigger was paradoxically considered so very suspicious due to what also made him a strong, albeit new town member still washing his feet. What was potentially important about Trigger, in the mafia's eyes, could have been a number of things. Alternatively, it could have been a completely random kill on their part (though I personally find that a bit of a bad tactic). Night kills are not always the best cases to analyse, of course. But what made him distinct and possess the potential for strength lay in a number of qualities he appeared to present on the first day: " a mid range threat, because Trigger was vocal enough to be threatening . . . If given the chance Trigger could have come out with something useful for the town or, guided them down a particular path." - @Calxiyn 21:410 "Trigger made no sense as a target. He was suspicious, appeared to have no role, and helped lead town toward mislynches." - @Makaze 21:411 It almost seems counterintuitive that, assuming the mafia had distinct motive for choosing Trigger to murder, they chose an individual that would have arguably continued being a suspicious individual all-in-all for a number of days hereafter. Despite this, he continued to actively participate to the best of his ability in the conversations that sprung up. Although a number of others considered him fairly wishy-washy (especially those who held the highest suspicions of him), it was this sense of switching between his potential targets that were outlined by fairly rational arguments. It may very well be possible that his brand of synthesizing vote-sheeping with his own analysis of those on the chopping block would serve prime cuisine for rationalizing potential leads that may head down the right path. But the wishy-washy was also his downfall. He fell in his pursuit of Luxord due to indecision with his own self (not to say I think Luxord is anti-town yet, just using Trigger's accusation as an example). "To be honest, I'm kind of worried about the bandwagon that's formed on voting against Krowley." - @Trigger 19:375 Regardless, this leads to a few hypotheses of his death: i. The Sniper - He was a future threat that was taken out preemptively This was espoused by Calxiyn slightly in her assumptions, as well as Marushi in an incidental final statement. "But really, my thoughts are that they probably took him out due to the potential threat as opposed to one he already made." - @Marushi 23:453 This primarily ties in with his overall role as a middle-ground user (incidentally, I talked about the relevance of this in an earlier post regarding potential mafia targets). He was vocal, but he was not as vocal as a number of other users at the time. His wishy-washiness in some regards also allowed him to move more with the influence of the flow. What made him a bit more distinct was the very significant and visible development of his opinions and conclusions. Although he may have not consistently led us on the correct path, his ability to rationalize clearly and cleanly while simultaneously being loose enough to pursue alternate cases if needed be meant that the more used to the game he would get, the more dangerous he could become. This would be especially seen with his constant agreements with the very controversial Makaze. " In particular, if mafia wanted to get rid of me they would need to get rid of people who might side with me, especially someone who has already gotten close to mafia. The less allies I have, the easier it will be to paint me badly." - @Makaze 23:456 At this point, we can easily understand that Makaze's significance is considered intimidating by a large amount of individuals, and statistically we can include the mafia. The mafia may thus be building their entire strategy on slowly isolating or taking out Makaze. This is, of course, assuming he is not a mafioso himself. But where Makaze's stalwart determination can be faulty is where Trigger's ease of flow comes into play, as Trigger's shifts allow him to gather details in a more indirect and slower way than Makaze's logic-based charges; both strategies would work, but they would depend on time and presentation. Trigger's shifts, in this instance, would have been helpful in identifying patterns in the future due to the constant jumping. He was the waterbender to Makaze's firebender. ii. The Seer - He was on track for something This was the theory first presented primarily by Makaze. "The question is, why him instead of someone else? Perhaps he got on someone's case and it made them nervous." - @Makaze 21:411 As Makaze later mentioned as well, the reliance on this argument alone can involve some degree of WIFOM, and must be taken with caution. But of course, we have the merit of understanding that the Mafia does not have to rely on a single reason for eliminating an individual. Later on, we will combine this with the first hypothesis, but let us address the hypothesis directly. By virtue of his constant shifts and his occasional discouragement, it is entirely possible that in his shotgun of accusations he may have hit a potential mafia target, or at least a non-town member. It was early asked, why him and not a number of others who accused a few key individuals who had received accusations in the past. I personally believe this theory by itself would not justify a direct Mafia killing; WIFOM is used more as a defense and a method to spread the seeds of doubt than a reliable method of thought, because in my experience it is less likely for individuals carrying out a deed (Mafia game related or not) to think in terms of WIFOM, especially if the mafia in question do not have a single extremely strong mafia player in their midst to help direct the shots, as Jiku had been in the last game from my understanding. Whether or not this might be the case in this game is up for grabs. But I digress. I will not touch more on this hypothesis beyond taking a closer look at those he identified and understanding that it works in tandem with a number of other hypotheses. iii. The Pariah - His general mistrust by the town made him an overall low-value (and thus, low-risk) target to take care of This is the setting that may have allowed the above to take place, and for the murder to be carried out so easily. Quite a number of individuals have postulated that it would be more reliable to take out a more vocal member. This may be the case, but it may also be easy for the mafia to guide vocal members to their own use, and let the town lynch themselves to death while ensuring their night kills leave little in the way of patterns so town structure breaks down further and further. As we have already established, Trigger was considered highly suspicious by a majority of the town. He may or may not have posed some sort of indirect threat, or future threat. But the situation of distrust; the situation of him being considered so wishy-washy, allowed him to be taken out quickly without needing to draw too much attention and simultaneously having a distinctly vague and ambiguous motive for his death. iv. Eighties Night Terrorism - He was chosen on the basis of surface-glanced single-stack consideration Hypothesis iv and v rely on similar premises of not delving too deeply into the motives behind the mafia because they may have theoretically not been too distinctly thought out in the first place. This hypothesis relies on making an example of a general middle-to-high active member that was chosen with just a quick takeout to need to get the game moving on the first day, perhaps with the intention of not needing to set a trail, or choosing someone who did not seem to assist directly much at first. v. Mafia Don't Play Dice - He was a random choice Self-explanatory. The choice was random; although this would be a bit of a shaky decision since it would keep strong players in the game, it should not be left out by virtue of still being a potential (albeit rare, assuming so) strategy, especially in consideration of the first day having no set pattern. Mafia are still human after all. vi. The Calamity Trigger - (i. + ii. + iii.) This is the final hypothesis, and the one I believe may be the most viable. It is a synthesis of the first three hypothesis. We must first establish that it is entirely possible that the mafia did not settle on one specific motive for death. They may have very well considered multiple: it would be in their best interest to do so. They may have not had a motive at all (v.). The motive may have even been indirect or unstated among them because it was understood otherwise, or it consisted of a multitude of continuous factors that led to the general decision of taking out Trigger. The Calamity Trigger takes the first three hypotheses and sets a stage for them. Trigger was a member that possessed a large amount of potential due to his relation with other members, his rationality, and his flexibility (i). He may or may not have known something or have gotten too close to accusing someone who would actually be the mafia (ii), and even then may have found out eventually due to the aforementioned rationality and flexibility (i). Finally, the stage was set by virtue of the suspicion that was brought upon him by (i). He was a target that could be taken out from his status as a bit of a town pariah. The motives could be intentionally odd and ambiguous. He would seem fairly low-key because of his general dislike by the town. It was a bit of a gamble in retrospect. Taking out such a suspicious individual narrowed down our pool of who may be mafia, but that was because one of the biggest flaws of us, as a town, is beyond single anaylsis. It was exemplified by the death of Trigger and the cloud of suspicion that followed him. It was not completely unfounded by the way he played, but it consistently brings up a weakness in our town that can be easily abused, and that we must take into consideration. The real calamity trigger is how we oftentimes separate the personality from the deed. We commonly make assumptions limited by our own logic. I did this many times on the first day, failing to stop and think within the shoes of who we are accusing. This led to the departure of Beau -- who was pressured by virtue of his personality quirks -- and Krowley, whom we failed to identify based on the fact that he did make suspicious actions, but it would be unsure whether this would be within the degree of his own thinking, and the issue of the internet that plagued him in the beginning. This was what led its namesake, Trigger, to be so high on suspicion lists. This is how innocent people like Luxord and DigitalAtlas were considered so suspicious in the last game; it shows the universality of the calamity trigger. It manifests itself in particularly vocal people as something called The Tragedy of the Sotto Voce, which I will explain later on. To move forward, we must begin to understand that, yes, there are concrete tells. But at the same time, we must understand these tells in the frame of the person we are accusing. To build a case, we must try our best to think like the accused. This brings me to my second address. II. The Devil Wind x. The Fuk?'s points are viable, but a bit flimsy x. Makaze may be as much an asset and a liability for the town x. Nitpicking for tells is seemingly getting us nowhere when we do not understand the personality behind them x. It feels as if much of Makaze's activity can be explained under the same rationale as Beau's: this is very much par of course for how he acts x. Hard-lynching should not be carried out without careful deliberation of the merits and demerits of Makaze's continued presence among the community as a potential threat I wish to begin with the clear statement that I also find Makaze suspicious. That being said, in acknowledgment of the points made, I will take the time to analyze the current argument against Makaze. More than anything through this, I personally feel that it would be highly unwise to rush into a hammer for Makaze, when he can be such a major asset to our town, assuming that he is indeed town. Beau said it best, and it seems to have echoed off the walls into this morning. "he could be a big help bc he's v smart and like good at questioning ppl and drawing out info" - Beau 4:68 Besides his intelligence and persuasion (which quite a number of you do possess anyway and which can equally serve as cruxes from time to time), one of the most important things Makaze possesses is experience in playing the game, which is really what can help drive his other facets. That being said, I overall find the argument viable, but I also find a few of its points concerning, and more importantly the most concerning thing I am seeing is this quick descent into his accusation based on a combination of questionable statements and a Calamity Trigger that fundamentally shoots away from addressing things he makes attempts to address. Why I do find the argument viable is that Makaze's sotto voce can be as much a liability as it is an asset, depending on the condition of the town. What I find most concerning about him is not his overall attitude, which honestly seems nothing new, but his focus on smaller details of tells to push rather than pushing the fact that he may have a general idea of one's character as potential anti-town. But this is where the controversy lies. His voice is such a true sotto voce that even if he is town, we as a town are unsure how to concretely address it without jumping to suspicion, when we can just as easily use it as a weapon that I am sure Makaze would be happy to involve himself with in deciphering who the mafia are, if he truly is a town member. The most troubling and controversial thing about Makaze is explained in Marushi's last post well. He is an excellent ally, but has acted irrationally at times, especially with a number of his accusations, and the variety of these accusations has been enough cause for concern to be established. I certainly hope some of the named roles have some extra information on him that can hint at us identifying his true motives. But I digress. When analyzing Makaze, we must come to understand his view as much as possible before identifying him as a culprit. I do not wish to put him on death row. Fortunately for us, Makaze has a very distinct and logical methodology to his thinking that is limited by two things: persistence and information, whether it be a lack of it as a townie or the presence of it as a mafia member. This being said, I have yet to see his actions completely reach the degree of direct suspicion as of yet by virtue of his characteristic actions of the past. But he is not out of harm's way. " He started off with three votes against him at the very beginning based on light suspicion, and was able to end up with zero votes on the first day. He did very little to actually defend himself against the votes. All he really did was play the concerned detective role extremely well." - @The Fuk? 22:424 To begin I must say that the principal point I agree with you on this issue is the possibility of Makaze using his controlling sotto voce to his advantage of leading the town into a dimmer direction. But this in itself needs to be checked carefully. Makaze has definitely been a central personality, but that hardly means we have all followed him as sheep under his each and every constant whim. There has always been a large amount of mistrust of Makaze. There have been a plethora of members who have constantly disputed his claims, and even right at this moment such a heated discussion is perhaps due in part to the methodology of debate that those of us involved are employing in reaction to Makaze's courier-new cold and stringent statements. I do not believe he necessarily required to defend himself against the votes because it was well understood that they were partly random and would most definitely change and shift as more significant cases of suspicion popped up, especially with the notice of lurking individuals who were just as likely to be natural targets. To put an example with myself, Cstar shifted her vote from me when she found a more suitable target. " You’re encouraging activity and people thinking for themselves yet insisting that people follow along. It’s like you say, people shouldn’t be sheep- Except when it comes to you. That’s what I feel like you’re trying to tell us." - @Calxiyn Makaze has always possessed this perception of being very distinctive in his persuasion and his control everywhere. He can obviously use it to its advantage, but basing an argument distinctively on that brings in the calamity trigger and misses an existing facet of his personality that is not too much cause of alarm ... provided it is not seen in tandem with enough distinctive proof of his overall character through his words. Perhaps it is that Makaze, who has had more experience in Mafia than a majority of the forum, feels that he has the ability to help and guide through the factor of his experience? Combined with his personality it does come off at abrasive at times, I most certainly agree. But similar cases have been seen in many areas where Makaze believes he excels, for good reason or not. This shows especially in his enthusiasm and zeal for taking on the cases that he feels are viable. Unfortunately, it does lead to a bit of tunnel vision. We must be wary. But what we should not assume is that we treat Makaze's word as god. It is distinctive, but it is also commonly disputed among everyone. This discussion is example of it. The thing is, The Fuk?, I do feel you have the potential for a case. I simply feel uncomfortable basing it on the existing proof given. I would almost say you were a named role with the sudden bomb you dropped upon us and your activity of the first day! "but if yesterday was any indication, he did get many to vote off Krowley. " - @default 22:427 " Krowley, pushing for people to vote for him quickly, citing the deadline. Even after the true deadline had been pointed out (which, sidenote, is just as telling a mistake as misspelling a name, imo) you did not even continue to plead your case, only stating, when asked repeatedly, that he was "most suspicious" in your opinion, and even remained mostly silent for the majority of the day." - @Marushi 23:453 This is minor, but I want to clarify that, to me, Makaze did not have as significant a role in pushing Krowley than he did Beau. Hyuge stated the initial arguments for Krowley, Makaze provided his own, and a number of others followed suit or simply voted because a. it was nearing lynch time b. they had their own assumptions on Krowley. A number of posts made it clear to me, at the time, that people had genuinely come to ridding of Krowley based on personal decisions, in contrast to Beau which held primarily Trigger and Makaze as the accusers. Had we lynched Beau, we could place much more blame on Makaze for driving it further. But Krowley was a result that is more the result of us than a single person. Shifting the blame onto one person alone feels a bit in the vein of confirmation bias, although the other points are valid. The reason I bring this up is part of the Tragedy of the Sotto Voce, but also because the underlying suspicion every single person here possesses of Makaze by virtue of his personality and an overestimation of his scheming based on personal assumptions can oftentimes lead to colouring perceptions of certain events. This is related to the Tragedy of the Sotto Voce by not simply affecting Makaze but a large proportion of vocal members by virtue of being vocal and divisive with their opinions. It becomes most distinctive for Makaze because of his distinct personality in tandem with his voice. "Even despite this tell, the whole situation with Beau disturbs me. Makaze pushed and pushed and pushed that we lynch Beau, basing his entire case on general personality quirks and word choice. He then pushed and pushed and pushed that we do it quickly" - @Marushi 23:453 I do agree in retrospect it was too quick, but I can understand the reasoning behind it. Slow discussion would have been a bit problematic had it theoretically led to a no lynch. Most of Makaze's unfortunate egging of Beau was constant questioning with the last few metadays focusing on attempting to certify his case based on the suspicion of mafia, fearing that other mafia would attempt to displace his case and seize a victory (and perhaps, confidence from the town) through this effort. Unfortunately, as we understand now, it was a fundamental misunderstanding and a calamity trigger of its own, having misfired towards Beau's overall personality. Again, a case of misunderstanding the clockwork behind the actions of the other. This is the biggest threat I feel Makaze presents regardless of him being mafia or not, which I will address shortly. " Makaze should be one of, if not the biggest threat to the Mafia. Why didn't they off him last night?" - @Zazu 24:464 The virtue of being an obvious target. He can easily be Watched, identifying the potential Mafia from what I understand. The mafia could get off multiple kills by using his stressing and determination to their own advantage to influence others (or just dispute) the lynching of particular members to protect themselves by offering simple suggestions. Makaze will be offed eventually -- either due to the mafia or due to the mistrust of the town -- and the mafia may use this to its advantage, seeding mistrust among the populace and perhaps allowing us to off Makaze ourselves and feel even more demoralized were he to hypothetically be town. The idea of being the biggest threat to the mafia also brings up an interesting point. We all agree and understand that he is a big threat to the mafia, but not how, exactly. He could very well be as much a liability by virtue of his argumentation. But what it establishes, and what is important for understanding the motives of the mafia, is that everyone here has an existing perception of Makaze as being a threat by virtue of attempting to know his method of thinking, which can simulatenously be a great method of getting personali-tells but could also lead to calamity triggers. "And that is why I believe you are Mafia. Now can you try to defend yourself based on yourself, instead of accusing your accuser? ^This. Makaze please defend yourself instead of shifting blame on to everyone else. I'm more than willing to remove this vote on you, but if you can't come up with a defense for us then I'll keep this on you until a better option appears. " As someone who was initially suspicious of The Fuk? and suspicious of this wagon as much as I am suspicious of Makaze, I can understand why Makaze attempted to focus on The Fuk?, but for different reasons. I believe he clearly stated his defenses multiple times and it seems that both sides are a bit too busy nitpicking on individual comments. But I digress as Makaze has summed up his defenses. More importantly, his particular nitpicking has been a constant problem as the basis of his scumtells. I do not dispute his method, with the exception of what happened with Beau which I feel went a bit too far, especially since the method has been employed by a number of others under the pretense of similar logic in attempting to discredit the argument. I dispute it being the central gauge of reliability because of how flimsy the argument can be compared to stronger explanations of one's overall character in the game. Marushi' points are overall good bases to question Makaze's intent from, I feel, because they represent the flaw in his actions that can equally serve as the town liability I have been attempting to address: perhaps as a downfall of his consistently logical attempts at tells, they narrow in on what seem to be the most visually obvious ones while occasionally leaving aside the natural human factors of the individual that can cause such calamity triggers. At this point, it is 1 AM and I am extremely tired so I will continue on quickly. I do not believe Makaze will completely escape suspicion today. Even if he escapes lynching, his death may equally come from a vigilante who feels that The Fuk?'s arguments are in the right. What we must fundamentally understand is that this perception of Makaze-as-threat that seems to pervade even us attempting to find the mafia (granted, not unfounded and not unjustified because he would be a very skilled mafioso), can just as easily be used against us by the mafia to rid us of him as it can be used as a weapon to fight against the mafia through the power of teamwork, logical analysis, and even intimidation. What has come to define this mistrust is his distinctive personality combined with his loud, pressing voice. His sotto voce. This is what has led primarily to the ballooning of mistrust that has piled on top of Makaze based on what I feel to be a misinterpretation of his conventional mannerisms and the prevailing mistrust between townies that exists by virtue of being vocal. That is why I never did really dispute The Fuk? on the idea of watching for the vocal members. I am sure some of you may mistrust me right now from reading everything here, but I do not blame you, because it is in the nature of the town to mistrust each other. That being said, I am not taking a side on this issue yet. I do feel Makaze has many faults in his previous analyses, although the premises are sufficiently viable. However, I do not wish for this to head into hard-lynch territory without seriously considering the consequences of removing Makaze, and whether or not it may be more town-advantageous for either a more natural disappearance later or the consequences of being present in the game for an extended period of time. This is simply consideration. III. The Tragedy of the Sotto Voce I keep referring to this term and by now a number of people may be questioning what the heck I am smoking. After analyzing a few games, I have come to this premise based on a town's general relationship with its most vocal members. The term "sotto voce" comes from Italian opera, and it essentially refers to a dramatic lowering of voice or tone to add emphasis or define a specific truth. I use it in the context of vocal members because they come to define the definition of "truth" among the town community by being active about their opinions and the proof they may see behind it. People have numerously talked about the influence of vocal members and especially on KH-Vids they have a point in this regard, where discussion and thought are truly only relegated to the post and thread if they are to evolve beyond the considerations of an individual's own limited logic in their mind. But it is this vocalisation that leads to suspicion, especially when combined with a distinctly active, extroverted personality. This is what leads to mistrust, not simply coloured by potential acts done by these vocal people throughout the days, but they way in which they word things, interact with others, and make their opinions known. They become targets of suspicion because of it, whether it being likelier to find something suspicious among their words, or being too enthusiastic, or simply the idea that they can use their sotto voce to steer the town away from the truth of the mafia. All of these ideas are viable, and often justified from time to time. But equally so, the tragedy of the sotto voce blooms by the paradox of voice: your attempts to be active naturally lead you to be a target of suspicion. This was seen with a number of people in the last game. This is seen with Makaze right now. We must of course not unconditionally trust the vocal people. But we must be aware of the paradox of suspicion that leaving such a distinctive mark in the discussion can bring. This is especially in realization of the reality that mafia are likelier to be neutral-activity members rather than distinctively active or passive ones, because either ground is far too obvious. IV. Final Notes My biggest recommendation is to look into the shoes of the one you are accusing before basing them solely on the logic you have seen through your own eyes. It is true that people, with many facets, may act different being in the midst of a psychological game such as mafia, but this does not make their personality a binary on-off that relies on their interactions in the game. It is a framework for investigations to expand upon, but should only be used for assumptions carefully and always with proof as much as possible to back things up. With Makaze on the soft-lynch, I recommend no more lynches for Makaze be made until absolutely certain in his mafiosi tendency. Alternative cases should be pursued in the event of needing to choose between two candidates. Thus far, Day 2 has been dominated by discussion of the Makaze Candidate. If time allows I may expand upon my suspicions for some of the others, Makaze notwithstanding since Marushi and The Fuk? covered a principal amount of the suspicions I did have of him. I am tired. Good night. As a side note, my activity will be far slower until Thursday due to more work. [DOUBLEPOST=1409032667][/DOUBLEPOST]Post-essay post: Blast it. The lack of editing is now mocking me.
Must work on finishing an important coding project tonight; I am very happy to see The Fuk?'s answer to my question came in a very active way, however. Expect an analysis of our dead James Bond character much later tonight or tomorrow after 2 EST when I am back home, alongside a further suspect analysis. Since I never did drop the vote on The Fuk? these recent developments are certainly worth following closely under my own interest, to say the least. That being said, I will put off resuming a case on anybody here until I see the others pop out in a bit.[DOUBLEPOST=1408937526][/DOUBLEPOST]Re: The title Someone play this on a bong-shaped ocarina please.
They gunned down the fellow from James Bond with a very slightly different first name? Those fiends. That being said, Trigger was an interesting choice. He was high on lists, but also at a fairly above-average pace with his opinions and his overall activity. Perhaps the middle-ground poster idea would have some credence, but we must wait and see. Is it possible for vigilante to miss a night for murder or opt out? This would be nice.
Spoiler Ah, M-mafia-thread-chan ... I-it's cold, let me sleep in h-here tonight ...
Time is going to be key. We find ourselves pressed for time due to Thursday being the final metaday. Krowley has a set amount of time left to defend himself before the hammer either automatically strikes or the last few people hammer with their final votes. If he defends himself successfully and the wagon breaks loose I feel that we either need to latch on to a final culprit before the day ends or else risk No Lynch. In a way I feel that the time period has made it harder for a defense to come up, since one that plants doubt will serve to either continue with us lynching him regardless (due to the unsavoury alternative) or scatter us to other people (or all focus on a hastily-decided final culprit). I still feel Krowley needs to speak up first. But our prospects seem as if we have already fallen into a time management trap, though it is again only the first day and understandably hard and occasionally confusing to get things out. If we want to have backup cases to pursue then we should take some time to discuss them in the time we are taking to talk about Re: Krowley Not Replying Yet simultaneously. Tackle multiple ideas at once. Though for the sake of not causing fragmentation among us it depends on whether or not we wish to pursue backup cases alongside. A few steps have been built for a number of cases, like Marushi and Cstar have pointed out, but solidarity in not achieving a No Lynch may be more important regardless.
Still on the fence of vote-changing since I am still curious about The Fuk's thoughts on the more vocal members but at this rate it may be necessary due to the deadline. At least we have a soft-lynch. Let us hope Krowley can finally come to defend himself. The overall suspicion. As the others have said before, he has generally been treading away from participating in discussions, has only consistently posted jokes, and has a bit of a defeatist nature of not making much of an effort to defend himself. Besides that, his activity has been questionable from time to time. I agree with the others that he is definitely one of the more suspicious characters here, but his potential reply will serve to be a clincher. Also equally important is the need to get a lynch by the end of the day. As we all know, no lynch is not the best strategy to go ahead with, and Krowley has been found suspicious by a large proportion of us so far. Wagons also help identifying Town and Mafia later on as a handful of people discussed earlier.
I believe there is still one other person (Midnight?) on the replacement list, and from my understanding lynching the empty spot is still equivalent to removing the specific character from the game (i.e. if Beau were hypothetically mafia but gone and we lynched the slot it would still be equivalent to lynching Mafia, and same goes for Town). Interesting strategy! But we have to be a bit careful about this. Assuming that we do not lynch Beau's role itself, the new player could play the role in a more distinct way that could show the evidence that was built up for Beau in a different light. Perhaps even with the knowledge of Beau having been Prime Suspect #1 due to how the others perceived his actions. Do you have any specific people in mind? Especially since we are all working out what to do about the sudden departure of our friend.
Other leads you mean? There are a few out there by a number of people, if that is the case. Marushi mentioned one with default, hyuge brought up Krowley, and I have The Fuk for a few examples. At the moment I assume some are waiting for replies or more evidence. A few folks have yet to reply to the accusations, but the alternative cases are in the works.
Fair reasoning. As I said before, it was partly in jest but also just noting reactions, though I tried to tone it down a bit in comparison to my analysis posts. It has been multiple times that people have been thinking too much of my joking so I will put it to an end if it will result in accidentally misdirecting assumptions and suspicions. And Day 1 itself is coming to an end as well. It is better if we just stick together with our thoughts. My friend! This is not helping your case! You and a number of others have made no direct move to assist us with comment, strategy, or argumentation. While it is understandable that things are slow on the first day, I feel it would be for the best if you and the other aforementioned added something to both help keep any potential fingers of suspicion off of yourself and channel leads in who the Mafia could be. We are all rightly smart people, and one does not have to be a very vocal member to make poignant observations. Anyhow, I have enough suspicion of The Fuk? to warrant some vocalization. Throughout the day thus far, he has primarily been disconnected from the Town with his posts, not directly contributing to major discussions barring one or two statements. He is not quite as inactive to be within the specter of the low-post lurkers, but has typically come in to make a few general comments under the radar of activity. He has also been a bit too quiet in offering his personal opinions and observations despite his post quantity, and his overall disengagement is what appears to me worth some further investigation. Vote: @The Fuk?
Unvote I do not necessarily think that Beau's reactions so precisely fit in line with being anti-town in the vein of his indecision which seemed to stem as an extension of day one insecurity combined with the fact that he has been a fairly Prime Target since the beginning (amusingly through the actions of Krowley pointing things out, who is under Hyuge's chopping block). What I do find suspicious is his very shaky, very indirect defense, especially in regards to the accusations themselves. While I understand the haste of building a wagon as the day draws to an end, it is important that we do not fall into tunnel vision too quickly when we have at least a day left of gathering more information before settling on a final decision, definitely when a majority of the posts so far in today's metaday have been focusing on Beau's defense and we have not heard as much from the others who were accused in previous posts with reasonable explanations, like Krowley and Reno. That being said, this is not discouragement to pursue the potential true face behind Beau's words. He is high on my scumlist as well, or at the very least his actions seem to indicate he may not simply be a Vanilla Townie. No lynch should not be the result of the day's end. @Hayabusa @Bite the Dust @TwilightBlader do you three have any thoughts on the innocence of the accused so far? There appear to be a few leading names at the moment, and you have all been awfully quiet.
I would take out the garbage. 80s Miami was a smelly place.[DOUBLEPOST=1408470699][/DOUBLEPOST] Do you mind explaining this a bit more, Ben? I am just trying to wrap my head around the wording of the explanation.
The game picks up! Will reply more a bit later but just wanted to say that people should be wary of drawing conclusions based on "X person acted like this last game" because one's playstyle is not merely indicative of their role but the conditions of the game they find themselves in, and the conditions here are different enough to serve to be independent. [DOUBLEPOST=1408460569][/DOUBLEPOST] Hard to say for certain when little clues are known about possible Mafia indicators. Since their groupthink is a collective it depends on the consideration of the group itself rather than a few key individuals, although the key individuals do indeed have the ability to skew things as they see fit. Regardless of the fact, I am more inclined to say that the mafia would aim more for those in the neutral-ground in terms of activity. Taking out the bigwigs first removes the possibility of the mafia using the aforementioned to their own advantage of wagontargeting with these bigwigs leading the pack, letting us lynch ourselves to death on the backs of the loud ones. Influencing Townthink is as much of a tool of the mafia as night kills are. Quiet lurkers would either be naturally lynched by the suspicions of the town (even if they are town) or would serve as a good wagontarget fallback in the later days of the game when the mafia would need to quickly pin an assault on these equally-suspicious quiet ones to get the heat off of their heads. This leaves those in the middle ground who are not necessarily high-profile but are not consistently quiet and lurkish either. Paradoxically, it is these members who are also the likeliest to be scum due to the nature of the role. This is just a general statement, and again the possibilities would differ based on the makeup and strategy of the mafia itself. With no clues or leads thus far besides our own assumptions of its composition in minutiae, we can only toss conjecture on what would be a likely outcome through personal bias. In acknowledgment of this, this discussion is open for potentially influencing the decisions of mafia night kills, so stay on tip-toes.
I personally feel that keeping track of allies and suspected enemies does not necessarily have to be mutually exclusive, nor in discrete binary. Scouting friend and foe can be part of the same overarching tactical step in one's long-term strategy; oftentimes it is the mutual search that can achieve this as you mentioned, from what I understand. Running counts are always your closest friends. But as with many things, the priority of focus depends on the conditions of the game at that point.
I do not understand the criticism of Man of Steel as the most murderous. Now, Man of Cadmium or Man of Thallium, that would have murdered even more people.
Let us not wallow in the valley of despair, I say to you today, my friends. And so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream. I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal." I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia, the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood. I have a dream that one day even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice. I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character. I have a dream today! I have a dream that one day, down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of "interposition" and "nullification" -- one day right there in Alabama little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers. I have a dream today!
And I can guarantee that it is still not as glitchy as the Admin CP.
For a second I thought I eviscerated hyuge's page 9 post and posted my content in her quote box back there. These powers are terrible. Vote: my attention span[DOUBLEPOST=1408414517][/DOUBLEPOST] The Reporter serves to be an extremely volatile role. Information is power in mafia; it is why towns are often at a disadvantage. Thus, the Reporter, being one of the lowest informational-entropy roles by directly knowing the roles of others, would hypothetically be the most advantageous role to wagontarget the mafia's dangerous Redirector, for example. This of course comes at the cost of the Reporter's mechanical anti-town bias of taking out the three roles that allow us to stay afloat in this game. Compound this with the constant-Bernoulli-trial guesswork of investigation each night (on the basis of suspicion) and our long-term survival, in a way, depends on being able to influence the thought process of the Reporter and who they choose to investigate. This is also highly relevant for the vigilante - homogeneity in Townthink is boom or bust if we play our cards right, but what differentiates a vigilante from a serial killer is that they are actively attempting to target mafiosi alone. Do we equally focus on the Reporter as a threat as much as the Mafia by virtue of their selective influence? I agree with you that we should be wary, for now, because it can equally be an asset. To a certain point. But we must not let too much skepticism come to destroy us. Do not let the mafia influence our Townthink. Night kills become less relevant when they can easily let us consume ourselves in the flames of hopelessness and infighting. Vote: @Hayabusa , how is the Miami weather today?
